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Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Happy New Year! After the terrible end of the year for equities, US stocks are on pace to start the year on the right foot. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were indicating gaps up of over 1%, which would have put the S&P 500 on pace for its best opening day since 2013, but they have since pulled back a bit and are both up just under 1%.  While US stocks are on pace to start positively, the same can’t be said for international markets.  Chinese stocks traded down over 2% after the Manufacturing PMI reading for the world’s second-largest economy came in weaker than expected and just barely in expansionary territory. That decline was the worst opening day for Chinese stocks since 2016.

In Europe, the tone isn’t nearly as weak, but equities in the region are mixed as the STOXX 600 trades modestly lower. The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI decelerated slightly from 45.2 to 45.1. Meanwhile, concerning inflation, ECB President Lagarde commented “We have made significant progress in 2024 in bringing down inflation and hopefully 2025 is the year when we are on target.”

In the US, the only economic reports on the calendar are jobless claims at 8:30 (better than expected on both an initial and continuing basis), the final Manufacturing PMI from S&P for December at 9:45, and then Construction Spending at 10 AM. The ISM Manufacturing Index will be released tomorrow.

December wasn’t a good month for bulls, and the last several days were bad to a historic degree. The chart below shows the performance of the S&P 500 from the close before Christmas to year-end with the S&P 500 down 2.6%. As shown in the chart below, that ranks as the worst performance for the closing days of the year since at least 1952 and the 12th year during that span that it fell over 1%.