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If you planned on a quiet week of trading ahead of the unofficial last week of summer, you might want to adjust your plans. After plunging Friday, the only ones seemingly on vacation this morning are the dip buyers. Equity futures are down nearly 1% while US Treasury yields are moving higher. The 10-year yield has moved back above 3.1% which is still below the highs from June, but the 2-year yield briefly took out those June highs, so the upward direction in rates has resumed following Powell’s hawkish speech on Friday. The economic calendar is quiet today with the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report coming out at 10:30 Eastern. Economists are expecting a negative print but an improvement from July’s level of 22.6.
In many ways, last week was a normal one for the stock market- at least in terms of 2022 performance. To put it succinctly, Energy was up and everything else stunk. As shown in the graphic below from our Trend Analyzer, Energy was up over 4% taking its YTD gain back above 50%, while every other sector fell at least 1% and, in most cases, much more than that. Leading the way to the downside, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Communications Services, and Health Care all fell more than 4%.
Despite the sharp declines last week, most sectors remain above their 50-day moving averages (DMA) with the only two exceptions being Communications Services and Health Care. It remains to be seen whether last week was a pause in the sharp rally off the June lows or a resumption of the bear market, but if the majority of sectors can stay above their 50-DMAs, the bulls still have some hope to cling to.
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