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With three positive days already, it has already been a positive week for US equities, and today is looking to be another good day with S&P 500 futures up over half of one percent. The catalyst for today’s move is a reported agreement from China to step up agricultural imports of US goods as part of this week’s talks in Hawaii.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, a discussion of the US dollar’s swings over the last three months, global and national trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
Remember back in late March when it seemed as though every Friday in the equity market was a down one? At the time, no one in their right mind wanted to be buying stocks ahead of a weekend where the headlines surrounding the COVID outbreak were only getting worse. In early April, the Surgeon General warned Americans to prepare for “the hardest and the saddest week of most Americans’ lives.”
The old saying says to buy when there’s blood in the streets, and just as it seemed the news surrounding the COVID outbreak couldn’t get worse, the down Friday pattern completely reversed. After eleven down Fridays in the first fourteen weeks of the year, the last ten have seen a complete reversal where nine of them have been positive. Today looks to be a continuation of the trend as S&P 500 futures are currently indicating a gain of about 50 basis points at the open. The lesson of this pattern? Investing based on the headlines, especially when they’re at their most extreme (unless you’re doing the opposite) is one of the most sure-fire ways to underperform.