Chart of the Day – Bitcoin Clears $90,000
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 11/13/24 – And The Number Is…
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“The punishment of every disordered mind is its own disorder.” – St Augustine
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Asian stocks closed with notable declines for the second day in a row, as Japan, India, and South Korea all fell at least 1%. However, China bucked the trend, with the Shanghai Composite rallying 0.5%. The region’s key data point was the October PPI in Japan, which rose 0.2% m/m and took the y/y reading up to 3.4%. Both readings were higher than expected.
In Europe, this morning’s trading remains much more subdued relative to Asia and the STOXX 600 is down a relatively modest 0.4%. News in the region has been on the quiet side as French Unemployment was right in line with expectations. In Germany, the country’s ECB governing council member Joachim Nagel warned that potential tariffs under the incoming Trump Administration could cut overall growth by 1%, warning that “If the new tariffs actually materialize, we could even slip into negative territory”.
With global markets trading lower, US futures have also seen a downside bias, and US Treasuries have caught a modest bid as the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) trades modestly higher in the pre-market (0.36%). That does little, however, to put a dent into the 10.2% decline that the ETF has seen since mid-September shortly after the Harris-Trump Presidential debate when the President-elect’s odds in the betting markets bottomed out.
For this morning’s gain in TLT to have legs, this morning’s CPI report will need to cooperate, and we have seen less of that in recent months. While overall trends in inflation continue to move in the right direction, in recent months we have started to see an uptick in the number of higher-than-expected CPI reports.
Starting with headline CPI, after bottoming out at 1 late last year, the 12-month rolling total of higher-than-expected monthly readings has ratcheted up to 5. While that is well off the record-high readings of nine that we saw in 2022 and below the long-term average of 5.4, it’s still higher than it was.
Looking at core CPI, we’ve seen the same trend. After surging to a record high of 8 in October 2020, the 12-month rolling total of higher-than-expected core CPI prints dropped down as low as 2 earlier this year but has since rebounded back up to 5, and that’s higher than the long-term average of 4.8. In both cases, these rolling 12-month totals are nothing out of the ordinary, but if you want bonds to rally, you’re going to need the pace of higher-than-expected inflation prints to slow down.
Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers NXP Semiconductors’ (NXPI) Q3 2024 earnings call.
NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) specializes in secure connectivity products for automotive, industrial, and IoT markets. Known for its innovations in automotive electronics, especially in radar and battery management systems for EVs, NXPI delivers semiconductors that power critical applications like advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), industrial automation, and secure IoT devices. NXPI serves automotive OEMs, industrial manufacturers, and mobile tech companies worldwide. This quarter, NXPI reported revenue down 3% YoY but up 4% sequentially, with China driving growth across segments, partially offsetting demand declines in Europe and North America. The company saw challenges in automotive and industrial/IoT markets, with macroeconomic factors driving cautious inventory positions among Tier 1 automotive customers. On mixed results and lowered guidance, NXPI shares fell 5.2% on 11/5…
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Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Generac (GNRC)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Generac’s (GNRC) Q3 2024 earnings call.
Generac (GNRC) is a designer and manufacturer of power generation equipment, specializing in home standby and portable generators, as well as clean energy and energy storage solutions. GNRC provides critical backup power during grid outages, serving residential, commercial, and industrial markets. The company’s expertise offers insights into rising trends in energy reliability, clean technology, and grid resiliency as extreme weather events drive demand for backup power across the US and globally. GNRC’s Q3 results exceeded expectations due to elevated power outage activity. This surge boosted home standby generator sales by 28% YoY and pushed gross margins to 40.2%, the highest since 2010. Notably, GNRC’s PWRcell 2, an upgraded energy storage system, is set to launch commercially, anchored by the Ecobee Smart Hub. While US demand was strong, international sales painted a less rosy picture, particularly in Europe, where economic challenges weighed on the C&I segment. In reaction to earnings, on 10/31, GNRC shares gapped down but recovered intraday to close marginally higher…
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The Closer – Rates Reconfigure, Bank Lending, Consumers – 11/12/24
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a recap of the latest earnings (page 1) followed by a look into how trading in rates markets has shifted (page 2). Next, we review the latest Senior Loan Officer Outlook Survey (pages 3 and 4) before finishing with a rundown of the latest NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (pages 5 and 6).
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 11/12/24
Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Altria (MO)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Altria’s (MO) Q3 2024 earnings call.
Altria (MO) is a US-based tobacco company known for its premium cigarette brand Marlboro and its investments in smoke-free alternatives like nicotine pouches and e-vapor products. NJOY, MO’s e-vapor product, saw an 85% volume increase in promotional tests, though its success doesn’t go unchallenged by the rising illicit e-vapor market. MO’s on! nicotine pouches captured an 8.9% market share, supported by a 46% rise in shipment volume. Meanwhile, economic pressures are pushing consumers toward discount brands, and MO is launching a $600 million cost-saving initiative to streamline operations using AI. The company also remains in a heated patent dispute with vape giant JUUL. On EPS and revenue beats, shares of MO rose 7.8% on 10/31…
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Chart of the Day – It Took Long Enough
Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Caterpillar (CAT)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings call transcripts. The commentary below is AI generated then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Caterpillar’s (CAT) Q3 2024 earnings call.
Caterpillar (CAT) manufactures heavy machinery and equipment for industries like construction, mining, energy, and transportation. Known for its iconic yellow machines, the company produces excavators, trucks, engines, turbines, and power generation systems. The company’s hand in the energy transition and efforts in autonomous mining solutions make it a bellwether for industrial and economic trends. In Q3, CAT saw a 4% revenue drop due to lower-than-expected sales in Construction and Resource Industries, though Energy & Transportation grew 5% on strong demand for power generation from data centers and AI. Looking forward, the company expects mixed demand across segments, with strength in power generation and moderate growth in Latin America but headwinds in construction in North America and Europe. Despite some pricing pressures, margins remained resilient, and Caterpillar anticipates strong free cash flow through year-end. On the weaker results, CAT shares fell 2.1% on 10/30…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for CAT by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below: