The Closer – Insurance, Corporate Commentary, CPI – 9/11/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we kick off with a look into the diverging readings in sentiment gauges (page 1). We then look over some fundamentals of insurance stocks (page 2) before switching to a slew of corporate commentary we have gotten in recent days (pages 3-5). Turning over to macro data, we then review the latest CPI release (pages 6 and 7), the latest Z1 report out of the Fed (page 8), and wrap up with a glance at the strong demand for US Treasuries on the primary market (page 9).
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Bespoke’s Weekly Sector Snapshot — 9/11/25
Insurance Burdening Homeowners
In Tuesday’s Closer, we touched on some recent housing inventory, price, and mortgage delinquency data. With regards to delinquencies, the ICE Mortgage Monitor pointed to an improvement in the delinquency rate as of July.
While the monthly ICE report usually focuses on noncurrent loans, the most recent report also turned the spotlight on insurance premiums for mortgaged single family homes; specifically in regards to its impacts on home affordability. After surging 8.3% in 2024, average annual home insurance premiums hit another record high in June, rising to $6.19 for every $1,000 in coverage. That growth has far outpaced other categories like principal, interest, and taxes, which have likewise grown considerably in the past few years, making for an additional factor hurting affordability.
According to ICE’s data, the average single-family mortgage holder now pays about $2,370 a year for property insurance, accounting for a record 9.6% of average total mortgage-related expenses comprising principal, interest, taxes, and insurance.
Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Chewy (CHWY)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Chewy’s (CHWY) Q2 2025 earnings call.
Chewy (CHWY) is the leading online retailer of pet products in the US, offering everything from food and treats to medications, vet services, and now premium fresh and frozen meals. The company serves millions of pet owners with a heavy emphasis on convenience through its Autoship subscription program and a growing Chewy Plus membership that mirrors Amazon Prime. In Q2 FY25, Chewy posted net sales of $3.1B (+9% YoY), outpacing the industry’s low- to mid-single-digit growth and gaining share. Autoship reached a record $2.58B (83% of sales, +15% YoY), while active customers grew 4.5% to 20.9M with stronger cohort quality. The Chewy Plus membership ramped quickly, representing 3% of July sales, with members buying more frequently and attaching more items. A highlight was the launch of “Get Real,” Chewy’s fresh dog food line, targeting a TAM expected to grow from about $4B today to about $8–12B in the coming years. Tariff concerns were addressed through inventory builds and onshoring. CHWY shares sank 16.5% on 9/10 despite EPS and revenue beats…
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Chart of the Day: Claims Surge
B.I.G. Tips – IPO Radar
About 125 stocks with market caps of at least $500 million have IPOd since the current “AI” bull market began back in October 2022. IPOs have seen a pick-up in buying interest this year as evidenced by the performance of the Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO) that holds positions in newly-public companies. As we do from time to time, we went through all recent IPOs to try and identify ones that look bullish or at least worth considering. While the majority of these names likely won’t become large-cap blue-chips in the years and even decades ahead, a few of them could, which makes analyzing them worth the effort.
Based on their business models, the industry they’re in, sales growth, and/or recent share-price action, we found 24 recent IPOs from the broader list of 125 that caught our attention (sorted by market cap). In this report, we provide a one-sentence company description and a note on how shares have been trading recently. The names that are in uptrends but in neutral territory (not too overbought) have the best set-ups right now, but please note that, like always, this list is meant to be a starting point for further research rather than a “buy” recommendation. Additionally, we provide charts for each stock with annotations. Our hope is that readers browse through these names and see if any particular ones piqué their interest.
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 9/11/25
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“We just need every single person in this country to think about where we are and where we want to be. To ask ourselves, is this it?” – Spencer Cox
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Between the 24th anniversary of 9/11 and the political violence in Utah, there’s a lot to think about this morning before even considering the markets. The big news of the day will obviously be the August CPI report, along with jobless claims, which are just hitting the tape as we send this. Overnight, Asia had a mixed session with the Nikkei up over 1%, while Chinese equities also surged 1.7% following reports that the government will provide more stimulus for state-backed banks. On the trade front, though, Mexico said it will increase tariffs on vehicle imports from Asia to 50% from 20%.
In Europe this morning, the STOXX 600 is up 0.4% and every major country equity benchmark is also trading in the green. As expected, the ECB left rates unchanged.
In the US, equity futures were modestly higher heading into the data, while treasury yields were up about 2 bps across the curve. Crude oil and gold were fractionally lower, while cryptocurrencies were broadly higher, with Ethereum up over 3%.
Yesterday’s surge in Oracle (ORCL) was unbelievable. If you saw the chart pattern below for a small-cap stock, it would look impressive, but when one of the largest companies in the world experiences a breakout like that, it’s jaw-dropping.
With yesterday’s surge, shares of ORCL reached ludicrously short-term overbought levels by closing 5.57 standard deviations above its 50-day moving average (DMA). As crazy as that level is, it’s not even the most overbought reading ORCL has ever registered. As shown in the chart below, back on 6/22/17, ORCL shares closed 5.64 standard deviations above their 50-DMA after the company reported an earnings report which showed strong growth in its cloud business.
The chart below looks like a mess, and we don’t expect you to get too much insight from it. What it shows is the daily overbought/oversold readings for the 20 largest stocks in the S&P 500 over the last ten years. The point here is to show that it’s incredibly uncommon for large and mega-cap stocks to reach overbought levels like ORCL did yesterday. It’s only happened a handful of other times!
The Closer – CPS ASEC, PPI, AI Surge and Diverge – 9/10/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we provide a look at the annual update of CPS ASEC data for 2024 (pages 1 – 3). We then switch over to today’s PPI release (pages 4 and 5) before closing out with a check up on the diverging performance in our AI Baskets (pages 6 and 7).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Daily Sector Snapshot — 9/10/25
Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: AeroVironment (AVAV)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers AeroVironment’s (AVAV) Q1 2026 earnings call.
AeroVironment (AVAV) is a defense technology company that develops unmanned systems and advanced defense solutions across air, land, sea, space, and cyber domains. Its portfolio includes tactical drones like the Raven (hand-launched small UAS for reconnaissance and surveillance), Puma (small, portable UAS for long-endurance tactical missions), Switchblade (loitering munition drones designed for precision strike), and the P550 (Group 2 drone for long-range reconnaissance and intelligence gathering). Through its recent acquisition of BlueHalo, the company has expanded into space-based communications (e.g., laser terminals), directed-energy weapons (LOCUST laser system for counter-drone and missile defense), and RF/electronic warfare solutions (Titan jamming systems, BADGER phased-array satellite ground stations). AeroVironment posted record Q1 revenue of $454.7M, up 140% YoY, with bookings near $400M and a $1.1B funded backlog plus $3.1B unfunded. Growth was driven by a $240M Space Force laser communications contract, a $95M Army award for the FE-1 long-range interceptor, and surging sales of Switchblade 600 (+200%), JUMP 20 (6x), and LOCUST laser defense (5x). Management highlighted that conflicts such as Ukraine show vulnerabilities in traditional RF systems, boosting demand for laser and RF solutions like Titan, while NATO allies are showing increased interest in UAS and missile defense. AVAV missed EPS estimates on stronger revenue. The stock was up roughly 3% on 9/10…
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