Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 11/22/24 – Eeasing Into the Weekend
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Of course it’s the same old story. Truth usually is the same old story.” – Margaret Thatcher
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After an eventful month and week, markets are looking to slide into the weekend on a quiet note as US equity futures are little changed on either side of the flatline. Despite a weak batch of flash manufacturing PMI reports from Asia and Europe, global equities are closing off the week on a more positive note. The Nikkei closed 0.7% higher finishing down 0.9% for the week, but in China, both onshore and offshore indices finished down sharply putting them both into the red for the week. European stocks have traded more uniformly positive with the STOXX 6000 trading up 0.5% putting it into the green for the week as the flash PMI manufacturing index slid into contraction territory at 48.1 from 50.0 in October. That weaker-than-expected reading has increased the odds of a December rate cut, pushing the euro to its lowest level in two years at 1.04 versus the dollar.
While the odds of a December rate cut in Europe rise, the odds here in the US have been on the decline. At the start of November, the market was pricing in an 80% chance of a 25 bps cut in December, but as of this morning, the odds have slipped to 60%.
The first rate cut was just over two months ago, so we wanted to see what, if any, change there has been in sector performance before versus after the September cut. The chart below shows the performance ranking of the eleven sector ETFs on a YTD basis through 9/17 (x-axis) versus each one’s performance since then. If there had been no shift in sector performance in the pre-and post-rate cut periods, you would expect to see all the dots on a 45-degree upward-sloping line, but as shown in the chart below, that has hardly been the case.
While several sectors are grouped relatively close to that line, others have seen big shifts. At the lower right side of the chart, Consumer Discretionary, and Energy were two of the worst-performing sectors on a YTD basis leading up to the first rate cut, but they’ve been the two best since then. Normally, you would expect Energy and Consumer Discretionary to move in opposite directions, but that hasn’t been the case this year. At the other extreme, Utilities and Consumer Staples were two of the better-performing sectors on a YTD basis heading into the September cut, but they’ve been laggards ever since then.
Looking at the charts of Consumer Discretionary and Energy, both sectors got a boost from the rate cut in September, but both rallies stalled out in late October before getting turbo-charged after the election, so it hasn’t been just a rate cut story. Energy’s rally is particularly surprising given it was the worst-performing sector during Trump’s first administration.
The Consumer Staples sector had been in a steady uptrend all year right up until September, but the rate cut almost served as a bell for the peak as the longer-term uptrend turned on a dime into a two-month downtrend.
The reversal in the Utilities sector hasn’t been as abrupt as the one in Consumer Staples, but as longer-term yields rose after the first cut, momentum slowed significantly, although the election results earlier this month have provided a boost on expectations for a weaker regulatory environment.
The Closer – Small Cap Rotations, Housing Affordability – 11/21/24
Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.
Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with a look into the post election moves in small caps (page 1). Next, we review existing home sales (page 2) including a look at affordability (page 3). We then check in on the leading index and our 5 Fed Manufacturing Composite (page 4). We finish with a rundown of today’s 10-year TIPS auction (page 5).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Target (TGT)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Target‘s (TGT) Q3 2024 earnings call.
Target (TGT) is a US retailer with over 1,900 locations that serve millions of shoppers nationwide along with a growing digital platform across essentials, home goods, apparel, beauty, and groceries. This quarter was challenging for TGT given 0.3% comparable sales growth driven by a 2.4% increase in traffic but offset by a 2% drop in average ticket size as cautious consumers gravitated toward promotions. Digital sales jumped 11% thanks largely to same-day delivery, which grew 20%. Strength is essentials and beauty was offset by ongoing softness in discretionary categories like home and hardlines. The company faced supply chain disruptions, including port strikes and higher inventory costs, but took proactive measures to protect holiday readiness. One interesting note in category performance: management noted that nutrition categories “performed very well.” Perhaps this is the RFK Jr. MAHA trend starting to take shape, not only discouraging toxins but also encouraging healthy choices? While competitor Walmart (WMT) outperformed, TGT missed estimates across the board and lowered guidance, sending the stock plummeting 21.3% on 11/20…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for TGT by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Bespoke’s Weekly Sector Snapshot — 11/21/24
Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Lowe’s (LOW)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Lowe‘s (LOW) Q3 2024 earnings call.
Lowe’s (LOW) is a home improvement retailer serving homeowners, renters, and professional contractors across the US and Canada. Offering products ranging from appliances and tools to paint and home decor, Lowe’s caters to DIY enthusiasts and small-to-medium-sized Pro customers. With over 2,000 stores, Lowe’s provides valuable insights into consumer spending trends, housing market dynamics, and broader economic shifts. In Q3, the Pro segment delivered high single-digit comps, supported by enhanced inventory and digital tools like “Shop the Job.” Online sales grew 6%, driven by a 10% traffic increase on the Lowe’s app. The MyLowe’s Rewards program gained traction, boosting repeat purchases and average order values. LOW called out its Total Home Strategy to position the itself for long-term growth, leveraging drivers like aging housing stock and millennial household formation. Despite beats on the top and bottom lines, LOW shares fell 4.6% on 11/19 due to year-over-year declines in revenue and EPS as management noted affordability challenges from high interest rates and inflation, with DIY discretionary demand still under pressure…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for LOW by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Chart of the Day – MicroStrategy (MSTR)
Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Walt Disney (DIS)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Walt Disney‘s (DIS) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Walt Disney (DIS) is a global entertainment leader known for its streaming (Hulu & Disney+), box-office production (Pixar, Marvel and 20th Century Studios), cable television (ABC and Fox Networks), theme parks, cruises, sports (ESPN), and more. While there was some concern for parks after several weather events around the world, the Paris Olympics, and tough comparisons in Orlando, there were some positives in that part of the business as noted with plans for a sixth cruise ship, park expansions, strong bookings for 2025, and a gradual recovery in consumer spending. Disney+ ended the quarter at 174 million core and Hulu subscriptions, and management noted a new personalized ESPN tile launch in December. Management also discussed its strong content slate for 2025 that will follow up successful 2024 titles, including “Captain America” and “Avatar” sequels. The optimistic outlook and earnings triple play propelled shares 6.2% higher on 11/14…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for DIS by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Bitcoin Approaches $100K
Bitcoin’s relentless rally has pressed on. In the past 24 hours, the world’s largest crypto has surpassed the $98,000 mark for the first time ever as it closes in on the $100,000 milestone. As shown below, after trending lower from the end of the first quarter through late summer, Bitcoin hit a low on September 6 and finally broke out of that downtrend by mid-October with a parabolic move upwards after the election. Currently, the crypto is up over 80% from that September low.
Bitcoin has seen a lot of big green candles in the past few weeks. To gauge how it has traded during the day, below we show an intraday composite of Bitcoin’s action since Election Day a little over two weeks ago. This is essentially the average 24-hour path that Bitcoin has taken since Election Day. We have shaded in gray the period from 9:30 AM ET to 4 PM ET, which represents regular trading hours for US equity markets. As you can see, Bitcoin has been surging when the US stock market has been open outside of a slight sell-off from 2-4 PM ET. Is this because of all the new Bitcoin ETF buying that has been happening lately?
The surge in Bitcoin prices has also come at a time when seasonality hasn’t exactly been at its best. In the second chart below, we show the average path of Bitcoin throughout the year for all years since 2015, over the past five years, and this year. As shown, this year in March and the second half of May, Bitcoin bucked seasonal trends as it saw much stronger runs versus a historical seasonal pattern in which prices have tended to fall. That parallels with this month in which prices have absolutely soared, whereas in the past, Bitcoin has tended to move lower in November before rebounding through the holidays. In fact, as the first days of December approach, forward one month and three month seasonality is reaching some of its strongest readings of the year. As shown in the dials below, forward one month historical median seasonal returns rank in the 85th percentile of all days of the year and forward three month returns are even better, just shy of the top decile of readings. Of course, seasonality is no guarantee of future price movements, and the recent rally already leaves Bitcoin very overbought.
Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: NVIDIA (NVDA)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers NVIDIA’s (NVDA) Q3 2025 earnings call.
NVIDIA (NVDA) produces graphical processing units (GPUs) utilized in a variety of end markets with specializations in LLMs, professional visualization, data centers, automotive, and gaming. In addition to hardware, NVDA also creates software used in machine learning, AI, cloud computing, and virtual/augmented reality. Before this quarter’s earnings results, which beat estimates but guidance was not raised, NVDA was on a streak of seven consecutive triple plays during which shares have climbed more than 500%. This quarter, NVDA delivered record revenue of $35.1 billion, up 94% YoY, fueled by a 112% increase in data center revenue to $30.8 billion. The Blackwell GPU ramp is underway as deliveries will begin next quarter, and demand is “incredible.” Generative and agentic AI adoption surged, supported by NVIDIA’s AI Enterprise platform and partnerships with giants like Microsoft, Oracle, and SoftBank. Sovereign AI efforts in India and Japan also gained momentum. Export controls slightly tempered growth in China as that headwind remains persistent. NVDA shares were down slightly on the morning of 11/21 as investors question how much longer NVDA can sustain its growth trajectory…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for NVDA by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 11/21/24 – All That Hype and Not Much to Show For It
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Nobody owes nobody nothing.” – Rocky Balboa
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Asian stocks traded mostly lower overnight with the Nikkei down close to 1% while Hong Kong and India saw declines of about half that pace. There were reports that the Chinese government plans to stick to its 5% growth target for 2025 even as the market had been expecting a reduction in the target closer to 4%. Keeping it at 5% would make the need for further stimulus more likely. In Europe, the tone is more positive with most major benchmarks trading higher and the STOXX 600 trading fractionally higher. Comments from an ECB official, Villeroy de Galhau, suggested an expectation for inflation still being on pace to return to the 2% target. This view would boost the odds of a 25-bps cut at the December meeting.
In the US, futures were also modestly higher ahead of jobless claims (initial lower than expected, continuing higher) and the Philly Fed (weaker than expected) at 8:30 and then Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators for October at 10 AM. Treasury yields are modestly lower. Crude oil is up over 2%, along with gold, which is up about 0.5%. The real story, however, is Bitcoin, which is up over 3% and within 3% of $100,000.
All that hype, and all we have to show for it is a fractional gain in the pre-market. Anticipation of Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings report last night started last week, and expectations were for a big move. Options markets were pricing in the possibility of an 8% move today in reaction to earnings which would equate to $300 billion in market cap. There aren’t even 30 companies in the United States with $300 billion market caps! NVDA finally reported last night, and after reporting better-than-expected earnings and revenues as well as raising guidance, the stock traded down as much as 5% but is now trading fractionally higher. The options market was only off by a factor of nearly ten!
Where NVDA finishes the day today is anyone’s guess, but a key level for the stock in the short term is $150, which it has had trouble getting above multiple times in the last two weeks. Since first trading above $140 in June, NVDA really hasn’t done much of anything, even though the rest of the market has rallied.
NVDA is the largest component of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) and the largest company in the world, and its massive rally this year has been more of an exception within the semiconductor space than anything else. As shown in the chart below, the SOX is down over 15% from its record high in June.
Of the 30 stocks in the SOX, their average YTD performance has been a gain of 13.7%. However, that number has been skewed by a few big winners. The median performance of the 30 stocks in the index has been a gain of just 1.46%, and only seven stocks in the index are outperforming the S&P 500 on a YTD basis. For a sector that’s typically been considered a leading indicator for the overall market and the economy, the semis are no longer a green light.
