Fixed Income Weekly — 11/13/24
Searching for ways to better understand the fixed income space or looking for actionable ideas in this asset class? Bespoke’s Fixed Income Weekly provides an update on rates and credit each week. We start off with a fresh piece of analysis driven by what’s in the headlines or driving the market in a given week. We then provide charts of how US Treasury futures and rates are trading, before moving on to a summary of recent fixed-income ETF performance, short-term interest rates including money market funds, and a trade idea. We summarize changes and recent developments for a variety of yield curves (UST, bund, Eurodollar, US breakeven inflation, and Bespoke’s Global Yield Curve) before finishing with a review of recent UST yield curve changes, spread changes for major credit products and international bonds, and 1-year return profiles for a cross-section of the fixed income world.
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Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Restaurant Brands International (QSR)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Restaurant Brands International’s (QSR) Q3 2024 earnings call.
Restaurant Brands International (QSR) is a global quick-service restaurant powerhouse, owning iconic brands like Burger King, Tim Hortons, Popeyes, and Firehouse Subs. Serving millions of customers daily across the US, Canada, and numerous international markets, QSR is known for delivering diverse, value-driven menus. In Q3, QSR acknowledged a tough macro environment but saw notable international growth, with Burger King leading in markets like Japan and Australia, offsetting weaker performance in China. Comparable sales rose 0.3%, while system-wide sales grew 3.2%. Tim Hortons drove 43% of QSR’s adjusted operating income, boosted by traffic growth and successful menu innovations like flatbread pizzas. Burger King’s US performance softened, yet initiatives like the “Addams Family” Whopper helped regain some ground. Popeyes saw a shift in strategy to meet demand for value offerings, while Firehouse Subs expanded with 49 new locations YoY. Results missed on the top and bottom lines this quarter, and the stock fell 2.6% in reqaction on 11/5…
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Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Arm (ARM)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Arm’s (ARM) Q2 2025 earnings call.
Arm (ARM) designs and licenses semiconductor intellectual property (IP) and processor architectures used in billions of devices worldwide, from smartphones to cloud data centers. Serving tech giants like Apple, NVIDIA, and Google, Arm’s widespread adoption is evidence of the evolution of digital infrastructure and emerging technology demands. This quarter, ARM reported a 23% YoY increase in royalty revenue, particularly from its v9 architecture in smartphones, which grew royalties by 40% despite modest industry shipment growth. ARM highlighted its expanding role in AI, cloud, and automotive, noting partnerships with Microsoft Azure and Google GCP (Google Cloud Platform), as well as automotive applications in ADAS (Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems) and IVI (In-Vehicle Infotainment) systems. The company also discussed demand for its Customized System Solutions (CSS) that allows clients to customize and integrate ARM’s IP into their chip designs, particularly in mobile, where CSS adoption could capture up to 50% market share. ARM shares were up 4% on 11/7 in reaction to the EPS and revenue beat…
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Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Uber (UBER)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers UBER’s (UBER) Q3 2024 earnings call.
Uber (UBER) is a global mobility platform offering ride-hailing, food delivery, freight, and business services in over 10,000 cities worldwide. With innovative ventures in autonomous vehicles, advertising, and logistics, Uber offers insights into changing consumer behaviors and urban mobility trends, serving both individual users and corporate clients through Uber for Business (U4B). In Q3, UBER reported record profitability, with gross bookings up 20% YoY. Key growth drivers included a 70% increase in Uber One memberships, an 80% rise in advertising revenue, and expanded mobility services in less dense markets. The company saw pressure from rising insurance costs in the US, though these increases are expected to moderate. UBER’s autonomous vehicle (AV) partnerships with companies like Waymo are also progressing, with planned expansions into Austin and Atlanta. The strong U4B growth, up 50%, also shows Uber’s traction in the corporate travel space. Despite better-than-expected results, UBER shares fell almost 10% on 10/31 because of gross bookings, although up, came in weaker-than-anticipated…
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Chart of the Day – Bitcoin Clears $90,000
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 11/13/24 – And The Number Is…
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“The punishment of every disordered mind is its own disorder.” – St Augustine
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Asian stocks closed with notable declines for the second day in a row, as Japan, India, and South Korea all fell at least 1%. However, China bucked the trend, with the Shanghai Composite rallying 0.5%. The region’s key data point was the October PPI in Japan, which rose 0.2% m/m and took the y/y reading up to 3.4%. Both readings were higher than expected.
In Europe, this morning’s trading remains much more subdued relative to Asia and the STOXX 600 is down a relatively modest 0.4%. News in the region has been on the quiet side as French Unemployment was right in line with expectations. In Germany, the country’s ECB governing council member Joachim Nagel warned that potential tariffs under the incoming Trump Administration could cut overall growth by 1%, warning that “If the new tariffs actually materialize, we could even slip into negative territory”.
With global markets trading lower, US futures have also seen a downside bias, and US Treasuries have caught a modest bid as the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) trades modestly higher in the pre-market (0.36%). That does little, however, to put a dent into the 10.2% decline that the ETF has seen since mid-September shortly after the Harris-Trump Presidential debate when the President-elect’s odds in the betting markets bottomed out.
For this morning’s gain in TLT to have legs, this morning’s CPI report will need to cooperate, and we have seen less of that in recent months. While overall trends in inflation continue to move in the right direction, in recent months we have started to see an uptick in the number of higher-than-expected CPI reports.
Starting with headline CPI, after bottoming out at 1 late last year, the 12-month rolling total of higher-than-expected monthly readings has ratcheted up to 5. While that is well off the record-high readings of nine that we saw in 2022 and below the long-term average of 5.4, it’s still higher than it was.
Looking at core CPI, we’ve seen the same trend. After surging to a record high of 8 in October 2020, the 12-month rolling total of higher-than-expected core CPI prints dropped down as low as 2 earlier this year but has since rebounded back up to 5, and that’s higher than the long-term average of 4.8. In both cases, these rolling 12-month totals are nothing out of the ordinary, but if you want bonds to rally, you’re going to need the pace of higher-than-expected inflation prints to slow down.
Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers NXP Semiconductors’ (NXPI) Q3 2024 earnings call.
NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) specializes in secure connectivity products for automotive, industrial, and IoT markets. Known for its innovations in automotive electronics, especially in radar and battery management systems for EVs, NXPI delivers semiconductors that power critical applications like advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), industrial automation, and secure IoT devices. NXPI serves automotive OEMs, industrial manufacturers, and mobile tech companies worldwide. This quarter, NXPI reported revenue down 3% YoY but up 4% sequentially, with China driving growth across segments, partially offsetting demand declines in Europe and North America. The company saw challenges in automotive and industrial/IoT markets, with macroeconomic factors driving cautious inventory positions among Tier 1 automotive customers. On mixed results and lowered guidance, NXPI shares fell 5.2% on 11/5…
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Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Generac (GNRC)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Generac’s (GNRC) Q3 2024 earnings call.
Generac (GNRC) is a designer and manufacturer of power generation equipment, specializing in home standby and portable generators, as well as clean energy and energy storage solutions. GNRC provides critical backup power during grid outages, serving residential, commercial, and industrial markets. The company’s expertise offers insights into rising trends in energy reliability, clean technology, and grid resiliency as extreme weather events drive demand for backup power across the US and globally. GNRC’s Q3 results exceeded expectations due to elevated power outage activity. This surge boosted home standby generator sales by 28% YoY and pushed gross margins to 40.2%, the highest since 2010. Notably, GNRC’s PWRcell 2, an upgraded energy storage system, is set to launch commercially, anchored by the Ecobee Smart Hub. While US demand was strong, international sales painted a less rosy picture, particularly in Europe, where economic challenges weighed on the C&I segment. In reaction to earnings, on 10/31, GNRC shares gapped down but recovered intraday to close marginally higher…
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The Closer – Rates Reconfigure, Bank Lending, Consumers – 11/12/24
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a recap of the latest earnings (page 1) followed by a look into how trading in rates markets has shifted (page 2). Next, we review the latest Senior Loan Officer Outlook Survey (pages 3 and 4) before finishing with a rundown of the latest NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (pages 5 and 6).
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