Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 1/23/25 – Europe Outperforming YTD
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“The more people who own little businesses of their own, the safer our country will be, and the better off its cities and towns; for the people who have a stake in their country and their community are its best citizens.” – John Hancock
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After a shaky start to the year, US equities have more than stabilized over the last two weeks, and whether you’re talking about small caps with the Russell 2000 or large caps like the Nasdaq and S&P 500, the major averages are sitting on YTD gains of over 3%. Not bad for just over three weeks! You might be surprised to hear, though, that even with those strong performance numbers, European stocks are modestly outperforming the US on a MTD basis. After accounting for the impact of currency moves, the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK) is already up over 4.7% YTD.
It’s been a good start to the year for European shares, but they still have a lot of work to do. While the Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500 have all been in well-defined uptrends, the same can’t be said for VGK which has been stuck in a downtrend since last fall. Not only does it remain in a rut of lower highs and lower lows, but it also isn’t even trading above its 200-DMA.
The Closer – Eggs, Earnings, Yield Curve – 1/22/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with a look into egg and meat prices (page 1 and 2). We also check in on the yield curve (page 2) followed by a dive into the latest earnings (page 3). We finish with a recap of today’s 20-year bond reopening (page 4).
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 1/22/25
Chart of the Day – Streaky Breadth
Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Netflix (NFLX)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Netflix’s (NFLX) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Netflix (NFLX) is the world’s leading streaming entertainment service with a library of popular films, TV shows, and original content. NFLX has more than 300 million paid memberships across 190+ countries, but still says it has only captured less than 1% of TV viewing worldwide. Known for hit series like Stranger Things and Squid Game and its growing library of blockbuster films, NFLX is continually innovating with live programming, gaming, and a growing ad-supported tier. This quarter, the company achieved a record 19 million paid net additions in Q4, fueled by a new season of Squid Game and Christmas Day NFL games. The ad-supported tier now accounts for 55% of new signups in ad markets, doubling revenue YoY. NFLX is also expanding live programming, securing FIFA Women’s World Cup rights for 2027 and 2031. NFLX opened more than 16% higher on 1/22 after beating estimates and eclipsing $10 billion in revenues for the first time ever in a quarter. The quotes below are from the company’s earnings call and prepared shareholder letter…
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Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Capital One (COF)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Capital One’s (COF) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Capital One (COF) is known for its credit cards, auto loans, banking, and savings accounts, serving a broad customer base from subprime to affluent consumers. Its credit card division is one of the largest in the US, offering competitive rewards and premium features like airport lounges. The company provides valuable insights into consumer spending, credit trends, and broader economic conditions. In Q4, Domestic card purchase volume grew 7% YoY, while revenue rose 9%, boosted by new account growth and the end of its Walmart partnership. Auto loan originations surged 53% under the conditions of stable vehicle values and easing credit score inflation. Credit metrics showed stability, with delinquency rates improving seasonally. Despite inflation and high-interest rate pressures on some consumers, COF noted strong labor market conditions and steady consumer debt servicing. COF shares were up more than 2.5% through midday on 1/22 after a 55% YoY jump in net income and the rosy outlook on the Discover acquisition…
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 1/22/25 – Peekaboo
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts; but if he will be content to begin with doubts, he shall end in certainties.” – Francis Bacon
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The positive reaction to earnings reports continues this morning with the most high-profile example being Netflix (NFLX). As noted in yesterday’s Chart of the Day, historically, the stock tends to respond most positively to its Q4 earnings report, and that was the case once again this earnings season as the stock is indicated to open close to 15% higher taking the market cap well above $400 billion. NFLX isn’t the only example, though, as UAL, P&G, and Travelers are just a few more examples of large companies trading higher in the pre-market in reaction to earnings. The only notable losers are in the Health Care sector where Abbot (ABT) and J&J (JNJ) are down about 2%.
What was looking like a breakdown in the chart of the S&P 500 (SPY) last Monday has quickly reversed. After closing back above its 50-day moving average on Friday, equities picked right back up on Tuesday with additional gains, breaking the string of lower highs and the short-term downtrend that has been in place since early December. We’re still just about 1% off those former highs, but the last five trading days have been a good start, and if the market can continue to react positively to the incoming earnings reports, those highs should be within reach.
Like SPY, some other major indices are playing peekaboo with their downtrends that have been in place since early December. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) is an example as it broke its downtrend from the December highs yesterday. Additionally, it didn’t make a higher high yesterday, but based on pre-market trading, it should break that string of lower highs today.
The Closer – Treasury Holdings, Consumers, Positioning – 1/21/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with a look into the Fed’s Treasury ownership and who else owns Treasuries (page 1 and 2). We then review the latest earnings (page 3) before pivoting over to some consumer spending data out of the NY Fed (page 4). We finish with a preview of this week’s Treasury auctions (page 5) and the latest positioning data (pages 6-9).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: DR Horton (DHI)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers DR Horton’s (DHI) Q1 2025 earnings call.
DR Horton (DHI) is the largest homebuilder in the US, specializing in single-family homes, townhomes, and multi-family properties with operations in 36 states. The company focuses on providing affordable housing options to first-time buyers, move-up buyers, and renters. This quarter, DHI reported results reflecting a slight YoY decline in revenue and earnings, driven by lower margins amid higher incentives like mortgage rate buy-downs. Closings fell 1% to 19,059 homes, with an average selling price of $374,900. Improved construction cycle times was a highlight, while unsold inventory dropped 15% YoY. Rental operations brought in $218M in revenue but faced margin pressures from higher rates. The company emphasized affordability, using smaller floor plans and attached homes to address limited housing supply at lower price points. On better-than-expected results, DHI shares opened almost 3% higher, but those gained were erased intraday to close around 2% lower…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for DHI by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below: