Six and Six
Both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 came into the day riding 6-day winning streaks, and based on where both indices are trading at mid-day, the S&P 500 looks poised to extend that streak while the streak looks like it’s going to end for small caps. The current six-day streak for the two indices is the first time that both indices have simultaneously been up six days in a row since February 2021. Since 2000, there have only been 16 other streaks, so while they aren’t particularly rare, they aren’t too common either.
In the charts below of the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000, the red dots show each time the two indices were up six days in a row at the same time. Looking at the various occurrences, there were several from 2013 to 2014 and then from late 2016 through 2017, and in most cases, they occurred within longer-term uptrends. The only notable exception was in June 2007.
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 11/26/24 – Pain in Retail
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“I think I’ve discovered the secret of life — you just hang around until you get used to it.” – Charles Schultz
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
US equity futures are mixed this morning. The Dow looks to open lower due to a 7% decline in Amgen (AMGN) after the company reported disappointing data related to its weight loss treatment. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are firmly in the green, but the Russell 2000 is indicated to open slightly lower after missing a record close yesterday by less than a point.
Treasury yields have barely budged from yesterday’s levels, crude oil is up less than 1% but below $70 per barrel, and gold is modestly higher. In a sign that some of the froth may be settling in the market, Bitcoin is down 3% this morning and trading near $92K after trading just under $99K yesterday. MicroStrategy (MSTR) calls its stock a leveraged play on Bitcoin, and that’s been the case both up and down. After trading as high as $543 per share on Friday, the stock is trading down near $380 this morning for a 30% decline. That’s a big move for a company that briefly had a market cap of over $100 billion last week!
Overnight, most major benchmarks were modestly lower in Asia, likely in at least part due to President-elect Trump’s statement that he would levy an additional 10% tariff on all goods imported from China. Europe was left out of the latest tariff talk, but stocks in the region are also lower across the board with modest gains as the STOXX trades down 0.4%.
Circling back to the US, it’s been a relatively busy morning for earnings, especially from retailers. Of the ten companies reporting, six topped EPS forecasts, seven beat sales forecasts, but two – Best Buy (BBY) and Kohl’s (KSS) – lowered guidance. Those two stocks are being punished accordingly with the former down over 7% and KSS down more than 15%. While the drop in KSS is large, in May it fell nearly 23% in reaction to earnings.
With Americans starting to get on the road for Thanksgiving today and tomorrow, one thing to be thankful for is lower pump prices. According to AAA, the national average price of a gallon of gas is just $3.067 per gallon. Over the weekend, it was as low as $3.056 which was the lowest national average price since June 2021 and nearly $2 below the peak from June 2022.
While the national average is still above $3 per gallon, just over half of US states have a national average below $3 per gallon, including Oklahoma which has the lowest average price at just over $2.50 per gallon. Nothing wrong with that!
CLICK HERE TO READ TODAY’S MORNING LINEUP PDF FOR FURTHER INSIGHTS.
The Closer – Small Caps At New Highs, Industrial Drivers, Treasury Rally – 11/25/24
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we look at the new highs for small caps after a drawdown that lasted three years and what that means for forward returns as well as which sectors have driven small caps (page 1). We then dive into the differences between small and large cap sector weightings with a focus on the Industrial sector (page 2), before moving on to a look at the 15 small cap industrials which have performed best since the last time the index was at a record (page 3). Finally, we preview 5 and 7 year note auctions later this week and review today’s 2 year note auction before discussing what drove the big Treasury rally today (page 4).
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 11/25/24
Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Palo Alto Networks (PANW)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Palo Alto Networks‘ (PANW) Q1 2025 earnings call.
Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is a global leader in cybersecurity, offering advanced solutions that protect organizations against evolving digital threats. The company provides products including firewalls, secure access solutions, cloud security platforms, and AI-driven threat detection tools like XSIAM and Prisma Cloud. Serving enterprises, governments, and critical infrastructure providers, PANW is renowned for its platformization strategy, consolidating disparate security tools into integrated, AI-powered systems. This quarter, PANW reported revenue growth of 14% YoY, with platformization being a key driver. The company highlighted 1,100 platformized customers and strong momentum in large deals, including a $50M SOC (Security Operations Center) transformation. AI was a heavy feature on the call as management hit on 400 new machine learning modules and expanded XSIAM (Extended Security Intelligence and Automation Management) adoption. Cloud security grew nicely, with cloud detection deployments increasing 10x since April. Opportunities in SASE (Secure Access Service Edge) were also discussed, now representing 16 million active licenses, and SIEM (Security Information and Event Management) replacement, with over $80M in conversions from its QRadar acquisition. On better-than-expected results, PANW shares finished 1.2% higher on 11/21…
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Thankful Investors — Last 5 Years
It’s a holiday-shortened Thanksgiving week, so over the next few days, we plan on writing about some of the stocks that investors can be most thankful for. In this post, we’re highlighting the 25 best-performing stocks in the S&P 1500 on a total return basis over the last five years. In the table below we rank them from 1st to 25th and show how much a $1,000 investment in each stock five years ago (on 11/25/19) would be worth today. Below the table, we provide a one-sentence blurb generated by AI that describes what each company does.
At the top of the list, above even NVIDIA (NVDA), is Alpha Metallurgical (AMR), which mines and produces coal for steel production and power generation! A $1,000 investment in AMR five years ago would be worth more than $34,000 today!
NVDA ranks second, turning $1,000 five years ago into more than $25,000 today, followed by energy drink maker Celsius (CELH), MARA Holdings (MARA), and GameStop (GME). Other notables on the list of big winners over the last five years include Tesla (TSLA) at #7, Super Micro (SMCI) at #8, Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) at #12, and Axon Enterprise (AXON) at #14. You’ll also probably recognize companies like Arista Networks (ANET), elf Beauty (ELF), Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM), Vistra (VST), Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Builders FirstSource (BLDR), and Eli Lilly (LLY).
For a quick description of each company listed above, we asked AI to give us its best one-sentence blurb:
- Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF): A global specialty retailer focused on casual apparel and accessories for young adults and kids, known for its trendy fashion and lifestyle branding.
- Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR): A leading producer of metallurgical coal, used primarily in steel production, with operations focused on mining and processing high-quality coal.
- Antero Resources (AR): An independent energy company specializing in the exploration and production of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil in the Appalachian Basin.
- Arista Networks (ANET): Provides cloud networking solutions, including switches, routers, and software, for data centers and enterprise networking environments.
- Axon Enterprise (AXON): Known for its Taser devices, body-worn cameras, and cloud-based evidence management software, serving public safety and law enforcement agencies.
- Builders FirstSource (BLDR): Supplies building materials, manufactured components, and construction services to professional homebuilders and remodelers in the U.S.
- Celsius Holdings (CELH): A beverage company offering fitness-oriented energy drinks and health-focused functional beverages for active consumers.
- Comfort Systems USA (FIX): Provides mechanical services such as heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC), and electrical contracting to commercial and industrial customers.
- CONSOL Energy (CEIX): A coal and energy company producing high-quality bituminous coal for electricity generation and industrial applications.
- Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK): Designs and markets footwear and accessories under brands like UGG, Teva, and HOKA ONE ONE, targeting performance and lifestyle consumers.
- e.l.f. Beauty (ELF): A cosmetics company specializing in affordable, high-quality makeup and skincare products available globally.
- Eli Lilly (LLY): A leading pharmaceutical company developing innovative medicines in areas such as diabetes, oncology, immunology, and neuroscience.
- GameStop (GME): A retailer of video games, consumer electronics, and collectibles, with a focus on digital gaming and e-commerce.
- Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA): A digital asset technology company focused on cryptocurrency mining, particularly Bitcoin, leveraging blockchain technology.
- Mr. Cooper Group (COOP): A mortgage servicer and lender offering home loan solutions, refinancing, and servicing for homeowners and buyers.
- NVIDIA (NVDA): A technology company best known for its graphics processing units (GPUs) used in gaming, AI, data centers, and autonomous vehicles.
- Powell Industries (POWL): Manufactures electrical equipment and systems for the management and distribution of electricity in industrial and utility markets.
- Quanta Services (PWR): Provides infrastructure services to the energy and communications sectors, including construction and maintenance of electric power and telecom systems.
- Range Resources (RRC): An independent oil and natural gas company focused on exploration and production in the Appalachian Basin, particularly natural gas.
- SiTime Corporation (SITM): Designs and manufactures precision timing devices, including silicon MEMS-based oscillators, used in electronics.
- Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM): A grocery retailer emphasizing fresh, natural, and organic products, catering to health-conscious consumers.
- Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Develops high-performance, energy-efficient server and storage solutions for data centers, enterprise IT, and cloud computing.
- Tesla, Inc. (TSLA): A global leader in electric vehicles, renewable energy products, and battery technology, with a mission to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy.
- Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL): Manages land and mineral rights in Texas, generating revenue from oil and gas royalties, leases, and easements.
- Vistra Corp. (VST): An energy company offering electricity generation, retail services, and renewable power solutions across the U.S. through its integrated platform.
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Chart of the Day: Yale Crash Confidence Update
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 11/25/24 – Positive Start to a Short Week
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“If you place your head in a lion’s mouth, then you cannot complain one day if he happens to bite it off.” – Agatha Christie
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Investors have a lot to be thankful for this year, and a holiday-shortened week after what has been an eventful year so far is no doubt one of them. The economic and earnings calendars are relatively light this week, but Tuesday will be a relatively busy week for earnings, while Wednesday will be a busier day for economic data as government agencies look to get the reports out ahead of what, for many, will be a long weekend.
In Asia, Japan and India were both up over 1% while Chinese stocks saw modest losses. In Europe, it’s been a mixed tone, with the STOXX 600 basically unchanged. Here in the US, equity futures are higher, and treasury yields are lower in part due to Scott Bessent’s nomination as Treasury Secretary.
The last week of November has historically been positive for equities, and recent history hasn’t deviated from that trend. The S&P 500 has notched gains in the last week of this month in six of the previous seven years. The only down year was in 2021 when the S&P 500 fell over 2.6% as investors feared a resurgence of Covid from the Omicron wave and Fed Chair Powell sent a message to the market that the Fed was no longer not even thinking about thinking about raising interest rates. While the S&P 500 was near record highs heading into the week, both factors sent stocks plunging, and the S&P 500 fell 2.6% for its fifth worst last week of November in the post-WWII period and the worst since 1987. Outside of 2021, though, you have to go back to 2005 to find another year when the S&P 500 dropped over 1% in the last week of November.
Overall, the S&P 500’s median performance during the last week of November since 1945 has been a gain of 0.32% with positive returns 58.2% of the time which is nearly twice the average for all one-week periods since 1945. That’s the good news. The bad news is that in years when the S&P 500 has been up 20%+ YTD heading into the last week of November, the median gain has been more in line with the historical average (0.19%). When the S&P 500 was overbought (1+ standard deviation above its 50-DMA) heading into the last week of the month, the median performance was a decline of 0.20% with gains less than half of the time. Additionally, when the S&P 500 was up 20%+ YTD and overbought, the median performance during the last week was also a decline of 0.18% with gains half of the time.
None of these trends suggest that declines this week are likely, but for a week that has historically been considered one of the most positive weeks of the year, the setup this year is not necessarily as bullish.
Brunch Reads – 11/24/24
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
Ruby’s Revenge: On November 24th, 1963 Jack Ruby killed Lee Harvey Oswald two days after Oswald allegedly assassinated President John F. Kennedy. The incident unfolded in the basement of the Dallas Police Department, where Oswald was being transferred to the county jail.
Jack Ruby, a nightclub owner with a flair for the dramatic, pushed through the crowd of journalists and officers, pulled out a .38-caliber revolver, and fired a single shot into Oswald’s abdomen at point-blank range. The scene was chaotic, officers wrestled Ruby to the ground, reporters scrambled to process what they’d just witnessed, and Oswald, clutching his stomach, fell to the floor. He was rushed to Parkland Memorial Hospital, the same hospital where Kennedy had been pronounced dead, but Oswald succumbed to his injuries shortly after.
Ruby’s actions ignited a whirlwind of speculation. Some believed he acted out of grief and rage over Kennedy’s murder, claiming he wanted to spare Jackie Kennedy the anguish of a trial. Others suspected a deeper conspiracy. Questions lingered about Ruby’s connections to organized crime and whether his actions were meant to silence Oswald.
The assassination of Oswald, coming so soon after Kennedy’s death, cemented the weekend as one of the most shocking and pivotal in American history. The live broadcast etched the moment into the nation’s collective memory, sparking debates and theories that continue today.
Education
The Bosses Who Don’t Care About Your Ivy League Degree (WSJ)
Once considered golden tickets, Ivy League degrees are losing some of their shine in the job market. Some are turning away from elite school grads, saying they often lack real-world problem-solving skills. Big firms like McKinsey are now using creative hiring methods, like problem-solving games, to find talent from less traditional schools. While some alumni still see their degrees as badges of hard work, there’s a growing sense that prestige alone isn’t enough anymore. [Link]
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