Bespoke’s Matrix of Economic Indicators – 11/29/24
Our Matrix of Economic Indicators provides a concise summary analysis of the US economy’s momentum. We combine trends across the dozens and dozens of economic indicators in various categories like manufacturing, employment, housing, the consumer, and inflation to provide a directional overview of the economy.
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 11/29/24 – Short and Sweet
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“There are far, far better things ahead than any we leave behind.” – C.S. Lewis
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It may be a slow day in the US with a shortened session, but it’s business as usual for the rest of the world. It was a busy day for data in Japan, and most of it was weaker than expected. Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Housing Starts all missed expectations. At the same time, CPI surprised to the upside with the Core reading rising at a 2.2% y/y pace versus expectations for an increase of just 2.0%. Even with the weaker data, the yen rallied as the higher-than-expected CPI print increased the odds of a rate hike at the December meeting. The Nikkei fell 0.4% during the session, but Chinese stocks finished the day and the week in positive territory.
In Europe, the STOXX 600 is marginally higher after a positive session on Thursday. While inflation data in Japan came in hotter than expected, Eurozone CPI was up 2.3% y/y which was right in line with expectations while Core CPI was slightly weaker (2.7% vs 2.8%).
US futures are higher across the board with modest gains, and there’s no data on the calendar to speak of. Treasury yields are slightly lower, and bitcoin is looking to make another run at $100K after failing to rally through that level late last week.
The day after Thanksgiving is considered a day when stocks usually trade higher, and since 1945, the S&P 500’s average performance on the day has been a gain of 0.23% with positive returns two-thirds of the time. Looking at a long-term chart of the S&P 500’s performance on this day, though, shows that in “the old days”, it used to be a much better day. In the 40 years from 1945 through 1953, the S&P 500’s average daily change on the Friday after Thanksgiving was a gain of 0.44% with positive returns 80% of the time, and in the 29 years from 1956 to 1984, it was down just twice! If the market was going to make you come to work the day after Thanksgiving, at least it usually gave you an up day!
Since 1985, performance the day after Thanksgiving has been more of a turkey. In the last 39 years, the S&P 500’s average performance on the Friday after Thanksgiving has been a gain of just 0.02% with positive returns just 54% of the time. Not only has today become much more of a coin flip over the last 40 years, but it has also included the worst after-Thanksgiving performances. In 2021, the S&P 500 plunged 2.27% thanks to the Omicron ‘scare’. Then in 2009, the S&P 500 dropped 1.72% on concerns about debt problems in Dubai while in 1987, it fell 1.5% as investors were still worried about the crash a month earlier.
As bad as those days all were, they weren’t a bad omen for the rest of the year. In 1987, the S&P 500 finished the year 2.8% higher, while in 2009, it rallied 2.2% into year-end. Finally, in 2021 it finished 3.7% higher. Maybe C.S. Lewis was right, after bad Thanksgiving Fridays, “There are far, far better things ahead”!
Daily Sector Snapshot — 11/26/24
The Closer – GDP, PCE, Data Deluge, 7y Sale – 11/27/24
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we break down today’s second reading on Q3 GDP (page 1) then move on to a review of the deluge of other data points released today including personal consumption expenditures price index data (page 2), personal income and spending (page 3), MNI Chicago PMI (page 3), and October durable goods data (page 3). We also break down another strong UST auction from this afternoon (page 3).
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Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Best Buy (BBY)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Best Buy’s (BBY) Q3 2025 earnings call.
Best Buy (BBY) is a leading specialty retailer of consumer electronics like laptops, smartphones, home appliances, and gaming equipment. BBY is also a major player in tech services through its Geek Squad. Its operations provide a lens into consumer spending habits, technology adoption trends, and the dynamics of the electronics supply chain. BBY’s Q3 resulted in a 2.9% decline in comparable sales, as demand softened in September and October due to macroeconomic uncertainty and pre-election distractions. Despite that, categories like computing and tablets saw 5.2% growth, driven by strong laptop sales (+7%). Despite a highly promotional retail environment, targeted pricing strategies and cost controls kept profitability on track. The company anticipates Q4 comparable sales to range from flat to -3%, buoyed by early Black Friday promotions. BBY shares fell almost 5% in reaction to the results…
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Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Deere (DE)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Deere’s (DE) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Deere (DE) provides insights into global agriculture trends, rural economic, and infrastructure development as a leader in agricultural, construction, and forestry machinery. The company produces advanced equipment like tractors, combines, and precision ag technologies that benefit farmers, construction firms, and forestry operators worldwide. DE’s fiscal Q4 results outperformed expectations, sending the stock up 8% on 11/21. Despite headwinds like high interest rates and declining global agricultural demand, Deere delivered strong margins of 13.1% and net income of $1.2 billion. Inventory management was a major focus, and strategic inventory reductions, including a 15% drop in combine inventories, supported the company’s ability to navigate weak farm fundamentals while maintaining positive pricing across segments. Notable highlights included the adoption of precision technologies, with orders for See & Spray exceeding 1,000 units and connected acres growing 20% globally…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for DE by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
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Bespoke’s Global Macro Dashboard — 11/27/24
Bespoke’s Global Macro Dashboard is a high-level summary of 22 major economies from around the world. For each country, we provide charts of local equity market prices, relative performance versus global equities, price to earnings ratios, dividend yields, economic growth, unemployment, retail sales and industrial production growth, inflation, money supply, spot FX performance versus the dollar, policy rate, and ten year local government bond yield interest rates. The report is intended as a tool for both reference and idea generation. It’s clients’ first stop for basic background info on how a given economy is performing, and what issues are driving the narrative for that economy. The dashboard helps you get up to speed on and keep track of the basics for the most important economies around the world, informing starting points for further research and risk management. It’s published the last Wednesday of every month at the Bespoke Institutional membership level.
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Chart of the Day – Radware (RDWR)
Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Snowflake (SNOW)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Snowflake’s (SNOW) Q3 2025 earnings call.
Snowflake (SNOW) is a cloud data platform that enables organizations to store, manage, and seamlessly analyze large volumes of structured and unstructured data. Known for its ease of use, SNOW supports advanced data architectures like data warehouses, lakehouses, and data meshes while simplifying data engineering tasks. The company’s products and services are of widespread use in the technology, healthcare, finance, and entertainment sectors, helping customers like Disney, Hyatt, and NBC Universal. Its partnerships with hyperscalers like AWS and Azure have also solidified its reputation as a leader in data. Product revenue grew 29% YoY this quarter as AI drove momentum, with over 1,000 AI/ML use cases and 3,200 accounts leveraging Snowflake Cortex AI. Apache Iceberg was another highlight, an open-source table format designed for managing large-scale datasets in data lakes. Management also pointed to customers saving 50% on costs by migrating to Snowflake. On the strong earnings results, SNOW shares surged 32.7% on 11/21. The stock is still down almost 30% from 52-week highs in February…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for SNOW by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below: