UPDATE: Trump 1.0 vs. Trump 2.0
We’re currently 314 trading days into President Trump’s second term, and the S&P 500 is currently up 17.9% since its last close prior to Inauguration Day 2025.
Amazingly, the stock market was essentially up the exact same amount at this point in President Trump’s 1st term!
While just 0.3 percentage points separates the S&P 500’s performance at this point in Trump’s 1st and 2nd terms, sector performance has been quite a bit different.
Communication Services is up more than any other sector in Trump’s second term (+34.4%), while it was down 13% at this point in Trump’s first term.
Energy was flat at this point in Trump’s first term, but it has shot up nearly 20% in Trump’s second term.
Technology was the best sector in Trump’s first term through April 21st, and it has been the second best sector during Trump’s second term with a gain of 29.3%.
Three sectors that have been weak relative to their performance during Trump 1.0 are Health Care, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary. All three sectors were up roughly 20% at this point in Trump’s first term, but they’re all only up 3-5% during Trump’s second go-around.
Tech and AI Infrastructure stocks have dominated the list of biggest winners since Trump was re-elected. For the table below, we show the 25 best and worst performing stocks since Election Day 2024 (not Inauguration Day).
Sixteen of the 25 best-performing stocks are from the Tech sector, including the top three, which are all up 600%+: Lumentum (LITE), Ciena (CIEN), and Western Digital (WDC).
Nine of the 25 worst performers are also from the Tech sector, which are names like Gartner (IT), Adobe (ADBE), and ServiceNow (NOW) that are getting crushed due to fears of AI obsolescence.
While politics certainly causes plenty of stress and anxiety for many investors, the biggest winners and losers since Trump’s re-election have been driven mostly by the AI trade, not politics. This is yet another example of why investors should never let politics impact long-term investment decisions.
One final chart we wanted to highlight is the performance of GEO Group (GEO) versus New York Times (NYT). For these two names, Trump has been a big driver of performance, but their paths are what’s enlightening.
GEO Group (GEO) is one of the few publicly traded private prison and detention center stocks, and traders bid this name up significantly after Trump won re-election on his promise to crack down on crime and illegal immigration. As you can see in the chart, GEO soared 80% in the first few months after Election Day 2024, but since peaking in early 2025, it has given up all of those gains and then some.
The New York Times (NYT), on the other hand, treaded water in the first six months after Trump’s re-election, but it has done nothing but trade higher since last April.
While traders initially saw GEO as a potential winner during Trump’s second term, the longer-term opportunity was in NYT, which continues to see an uptick in subscriptions.
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Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: D.R. Horton (DHI)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers D.R. Horton’s (DHI) Q2 2026 earnings call.
D.R. Horton (DHI) is the largest homebuilder in the US, focused on constructing and selling primarily entry-level and move-up homes. This quarter’s results showed a company navigating a tough affordability backdrop. Orders rose 11% YoY despite cautious consumers, supported by heavy incentives (about 10% of revenue) and widespread mortgage buydowns (used in about 73% of closings). Pricing remains under pressure (Average Selling Price down 3% YoY), but lower construction costs and strong execution kept margins near the high end of guidance. Inventory is being tightly managed, with completed unsold homes down 35% YoY and cycle times improving by nearly a month, allowing faster turns and earlier sales at better margins. Demand trends held up through March and into April despite macro noise (rates, oil, geopolitics), with strength in Texas, Florida, and newer northern markets. Despite the 2.3% YoY revenue dip, EPS and revenue topped estimates, and shares rose 7% on 4/21 as a result…
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B.I.G. Tips – Retail Sales Surprise to the Upside
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/21/26 – Cook Out
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“Success flourishes only in perseverance — ceaseless, restless perseverance.” – Baron Manfred von Richthofen
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The Nasdaq may have broken its 13-day winning streak yesterday, but it’s looking to start a new one this morning. Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both up nearly 0.5%, while the Dow, powered by a 7% rally in UnitedHealth Group (UNH), has that index on pace to gap up 0.65% at the open. Treasury yields are slightly higher, with the 10-year yield just under 4.26%, while crude oil is fractionally lower at just under $90 per barrel. All in all, it’s been a quiet overnight session as markets await the outcome of the latest on-again, off-again peace talks between the US and Iran. President Trump will also be interviewed on CNBC at 8:30, so investors will be focused on that for any potential headlines. Will he be talking about Iran, Kevin Warsh, or maybe even “Tim Apple’s” retirement?
In international markets overnight, Asian stocks were higher across the board, with South Korea surging 2.7% to a new record high and erasing all its 20%+ decline from late in the first quarter. European stocks are also trading with a positive bias, with the STOXX 600 0.2% higher, led by Germany and Spain, which are up 0.5%.
On the US economic calendar this morning, we’ll get Retail Sales at 8:30, and then Business Inventories and Pending Home Sales at 10 AM. The earnings calendar will also continue to pick up after the close with Capital One (COF), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), and United Airlines (UAL) all on the calendar.
One of the world’s largest companies marked the end of an era last night when Apple (AAPL) announced that CEO Tim Cook would retire effective September 1st, just over 15 years after taking the helm in August 2011. During Cook’s tenure, AAPL’s stock rallied more than 1,900%, which works out to an annualized gain of 22.8%, or nearly 10 percentage points more than the 13.0% gain for the S&P 500!
As incredible as the stock’s performance has been, it ranks only 38th among current members of the index. Among the current group of trillion-dollar stocks, AAPL trails Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Broadcom (AVGO), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA) but is ahead of Microsoft (MSFT), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/b), and Walmart (WMT). Meta (META) wasn’t even public when Cook took over as CEO, as its IPO wouldn’t be for another eight to nine months in May 2012.
The table below lists the 20 top-performing stocks in the S&P 500 since Cook took the helm at AAPL. NVDA’s 61K% gain is more than double the next closest stock (TSLA) and more than 30 times the gain of AAPL! There are three other stocks – Comfort Systems (FIX), AVGO, and Monolithic Power (MPWR) that have rallied more than 10,000%. While most have become household names, not all have. If you asked the average person to comment on the names listed below, many would probably see names like Comfort Systems (FIX) or Monolithic Power (MPWR) and ask why a mattrass company and utility are on the list, not knowing that the companies provide essential cooling (FIX) and power management systems (MPWR) for the data centers that power AI.
A look at AAPL’s performance under Cook shows what, in retrospect, looks like a steady uptrend with higher highs and higher lows, although there have been plenty of times along the way where the road ahead looked very uncertain. When Cook took the helm, AAPL was trading at a split-adjusted $13 per share. Yesterday, it closed just above $273, off nearly 5% from its all-time high of $286.19.
As steady as the rally in AAPL looks, the stock has seen a major shift in at least one respect over the last five years. For more than a decade, from the launch of the iPod through the launch of the iPhone, right up until Covid, AAPL was a steady alpha generator versus the market. A look at its relative strength versus the S&P 500, though, shows a sideways pattern that has been in place for more than five years. Will the new CEO “Ternus” around?
Looking at AAPL’s performance on a short-term basis shows the stock at an important juncture. After trading in a steady downtrend since its high late last year, AAPL tested that downtrend line over the last couple of days and appears to be stalling. While the stock successfully tested its 200-DMA in March and reclaimed its 50-DMA, the next step on the road to new highs and a potential return to outperformance will be a rally above $275.
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The Closer – Hawkish Shift, Rate Outlook, Canada Data – 4/20/26
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- Volatility indices like the VIX and MOVE have cratered back below their 6-month averages while the volatility index for oil remains a full standard deviation above.
- Recent years have consistently seen seasonally weak readings in payrolls in the second half of the year.
- Quarterly data from the Bank of Canada showed the effects of last year’s trade disputes are starting to ease.
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 4/20/26
Chart of the Day: Surprise New Highs
March 2026 Headlines
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/20/26 – Giving Some Back
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“If you’re in a good situation, don’t worry it’ll change.” – John A. Simone Sr.
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After a big rally on Friday on homes that the Iran war was ending, futures are lower to start the week as uncertainty over the progress of the war rekindles itself. The damage isn’t nearly as bad as it was earlier, though, as both S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are down less than 0.5%. Treasury yields are only slightly higher, and while crude is trading up close to 6%, WTI is still below $89 per barrel. Gold prices are down 1%, and Bitcoin is surprisingly higher as it holds above $75K. In the short term at least, the market has taken a two steps forward, one step back mentality.
Despite the weakness in US futures, Asia had a positive session as it played catch-up to Friday’s rally. The Nikkei rallied 0.6% while South Korea added 0.4%. Europe, however, was still open on Friday when the positive news regarding the Strait came out, so this morning, the STOXX 600 is down over 1.1% with Italy and Germany leading the way lower (-1.4%).
The economic calendar is light in the US today, and there isn’t even a lot in the way of earnings reports for investors to digest, but that will change as the week goes on as we head into the peak of earnings season.
Equities are on pace to start the week lower, but keep in mind how fast it’s recovered. The snapshot below shows where US index ETFs closed out last week relative to their trading ranges compared to where they were as of the close three weeks ago today. As of Friday, every US index ETF in our screen finished off last week at either overbought (1+ standard deviations above the 50-DMA) or extreme overbought (2+ standard deviations above) levels. Three weeks ago, all but one of them were at extreme overbought levels. We’ve come a long way, so some short-term digestion of the moves is only natural.
While major US indices closed out the week at record highs last Friday, the same can’t be said for stocks on an international basis. The chart below shows the performance of the SPDR MSCI ACWI Ex US ETF (CWI) over the last year. The sell-off because of the Iran war took the ETF right down to a successful retest of its 200-day moving average, and like the US, the rebound was faster than the decline. Unlike US equities, though, CWI’s rally on Friday stalled out just shy of the all-time highs from late February.
It’s well known by now that the US economy is much more insulated from the issues in the Middle East than the rest of the world, and the chart below illustrates that. On a relative strength basis, international equities bottomed shortly after the 2024 election and reached a short-term peak around Liberation Day last April. Towards the end of last year, as tariff concerns fell off the front page, international stocks started rallying again, hitting a multi-year high right at the end of February.
The start of the war abruptly derailed that outperformance, and while international stocks rebounded in late March into early April, they started to rollover again last week, and look poised ot continue that underperformance today. That weakness was somewhat surprising given it came as tensions in the Persian Gulf started to ease, but if there’s one thing we can all be certain of, the market is always full of surprises.
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