The 10 Stocks Up More Than Bitcoin
As you can see in the chart below, bitcoin’s move up towards $100k leaves the cryptocurrency up 1,219% over the last five years:
We looked at stocks in the Russell 3,000 to see how many have done even better than bitcoin over the last five years. Of the stocks in the index with market caps of more than $5 billion, there are exactly ten.
Below is a list of the ten along with an AI-generated one-sentence description of what the company does. As you’ll see, the 2nd and 3rd best performers are bitcoin-related stocks, and they’re both up more than 2,000% versus bitcoin’s gain of 1,219%.
- NVIDIA (NVDA): A leader in graphics processing units (GPUs) for gaming, AI, and data centers, driving advancements in computing and visual technologies.
- MicroStrategy (MSTR): A business intelligence and analytics software provider, also known for its significant investments in Bitcoin.
- MARA (MARA): A cryptocurrency mining company focusing on Bitcoin mining using blockchain technology.
- Modine Manufacturing (MOD): Designs and manufactures thermal management solutions, including heating and cooling products for vehicles and industrial systems.
- Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Develops high-performance, energy-efficient server and storage solutions for data centers, enterprise IT, and cloud computing.
- Celsius (CELH): A beverage company specializing in fitness-oriented energy drinks and health-focused beverages.
- GameStop Corp (GME): A retailer of video games, consumer electronics, and collectibles, with a focus on e-commerce and digital gaming.
- Tesla (TSLA): A pioneer in electric vehicles and renewable energy, known for its electric cars, solar products, and energy storage solutions.
- Antero Resources (AR): An energy company engaged in the exploration and production of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil.
- Sterling Infrastructure (STRL): Provides infrastructure services, including heavy civil, transportation, and building projects across the U.S.
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Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Brown-Forman (BF/B)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Brown-Forman’s (BF/B) Q2 2025 earnings call.
Brown-Forman (BF/B) is a global producer of premium spirits and wines, best known for its iconic Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey brand. The company also produces tequila brands Herradura and el Jimador, premium whiskeys like Woodford Reserve, and rums such as Diplomatico. Its global reach and product breadth offer valuable insights into consumer trends across geographies when it comes to alcohol. Brown-Forman’s first half of fiscal 2025 unfolded as it expected, with flat organic net sales YoY. Jack Daniel’s RTDs (ready-to-drink) saw strong growth, with new flavors and geographic expansion highlighted, while Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey showed sequential improvement in US consumer takeaway trends. Tequila brands faced headwinds in the US and Mexico, offset by strong growth in markets like Brazil. Emerging markets delivered 6% organic sales growth, led by Türkey and Brazil, while developed markets faced softer conditions. Tariff uncertainties for American whiskey exports to Europe and tequila imports from Mexico remain a key risk. Despite these challenges, Brown-Forman reaffirmed its guidance, supported by innovation and premiumization. On results that topped analyst estimates, the stock rallied 10.7% on 12/5, making up ground after a rather steep decline over the last month…
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Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report — December 2024
Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report is an analysis of a huge consumer survey that we run each month. Our goal with this survey is to track trends across the economic and financial landscape in the US. Using the results from our proprietary monthly survey, we dissect and analyze all of the data and publish the Consumer Pulse Report, which we sell access to on a subscription basis. Sign up for a 30-day free trial to our Bespoke Consumer Pulse subscription service. With a trial, you’ll get coverage of consumer electronics, social media, streaming media, retail, autos, and much more. The report also has numerous proprietary US economic data points that are extremely timely and useful for investors.
We’ve just released our most recent monthly report to Pulse subscribers, and it’s definitely worth the read if you’re curious about the health of the consumer in the current market environment. Start a 30-day free trial for a full breakdown of all of our proprietary Pulse economic indicators.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 12/6/24 – Jobs Day – Just Right
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“It is not heroes that make history, but history that makes heroes.” – Joseph Stalin
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Futures saw little movement as US investors awaited the big November jobs report, in which payrolls were expected to bounce back from October’s hurricane-related weak print. The report was just released, and investors got just about what they expected. Headline jobs was slightly higher than expected (227K vs 220K), and October’s print was revised modestly lower. The Unemployment Rate ticked up slightly to 4.2% from 4.1% which was a tick higher than expected, and average hourly earnings were up 4.2% y/y versus expectations for 4.1%. All in all, the report had little in the way of surprises.
Asian stocks closed out a positive week with a negative bias. Japan, India, South Korea, and Australia were all lower, but China bucked the trend with gains of over 1%. The gains there come in anticipation of next week’s Central Economic Work Conference where investors expect authorities to introduce additional measures to support growth in that ailing economy.
European equities are finishing off a positive week with additional gains this morning. The STOXX 600 is up fractionally (<0.25%) taking its gain for the week to over 2%. GDP for the region increased 0.4% which was in line with forecasts, but Industrial Production in Germany unexpectedly declined. French equities are the big winners in the region with a gain of over 1% as Macron insists that he will finish his Presidency through 2027.
As mentioned above, investors expected a rebound in the November jobs report after last month’s weaker-than-expected print. While the hurricanes in the south impacted job growth for October, last month’s report was the fourth miss relative to expectations in the last seven reports and the biggest miss (-88K) since January 2022. The market hoped for a better November report… but not too much, and that’s exactly what it got. In response, market pricing for a December cut now stands at just about 90%.
Now that everyone has discovered digital gold, is the physical version on its way to becoming a paperweight? After peaking just above $2,800 per ounce at the end of October, gold prices declined as much as 9% to their lows in mid-November, but after a bounce still remain down over 5% hovering right around $2,650 per ounce.
A look at the chart shows a delicate picture. Gold broke its uptrend from the summer just after the election and then surrendered the 50-DMA just days later. From that mid-November low, it rallied back above its 50-DMA but stalled out right below its former uptrend line. These failures at a former key trendline can often signal a shift in trend, and another attempted rally after Thanksgiving has failed at the 50-DMA which is now starting to roll over. The next few days will be critical; it will either break above its short-term downtrend from the October high or below what looks like a very short-term uptrend line from the mid-November low.
As is usually the case, the move in the gold mining stocks has followed a similar path, but with wider swings. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) was in an upward trending channel for about six months dating back to late May but broke below the low end of that range as well as its 50-DMA just two days after the election. GDX managed to find some support at its 200-DMA – a level it hasn’t traded below since March, but already appears to be running out of momentum and starting to roll over. Judging by the President-elect’s various real estate holdings, no one seems to love gold more than him, but his victory in November hasn’t been good for anything related to gold.
Getting back to the original question over whether Bitcoin has become a substitute for physical gold, there are certainly some aspects where it could serve as a substitute. Less than a month ago, though, gold was at record highs, so it will take more than a month of weakness and a decline of less than 10% for us to get the hammer out and start putting the nails in gold’s coffin.
The Closer – Trade Balance, AI After Two Years – 12/5/24
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a look into the low volatility recently (page 1) in addition to the latest trade data (page 2 and 3). We also check in on some earnings (page 3) and then review the latest housing data from Realtor.com (pages 4 and 5) and then take a look at the performance of our AI baskets since the release of ChatGPT (page 6).
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Bespoke’s Weekly Sector Snapshot — 12/5/24
Growth, Value, and Dividends
When panning across the US styles screen of our Trend Analyzer tool, one dynamic has become clear over the past week: growth has trumped value. Across the board, most ETFs in this screen are overbought as of yesterday’s close trading a full standard deviation or more above their respective 50-DMAs. However, it is growth oriented ones that have gotten the most extended thanks to outsized year-to-date in addition to 5-day gains. While those growth ETFs like the Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) have risen to new highs, value and dividend ETFs have mostly pulled back in the short term.
Taking a sample using the Vanguard family of ETFs, again growth (VUG) is the top performer in the past week and this year while value (VTV) is closer to the bottom of the list. Meanwhile, the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) has likewise fallen in the past week albeit by a more modest amount. As shown below, the relative strength lines of growth versus value and dividends have tracked one another closely this year. In both scenarios, growth has outperformed value and dividends throughout most of 2024 with a notable swing higher since early last week.
Impressively, that favoritism towards growth in the past week has been historic. Below we show the rolling 5-day relative strength of growth (VUG) versus dividends (VIG) going back to 2006 when the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) first began trading. That current short-term stretch of relative strength in growth ranks as one of the most dramatic on record. The last time there was more than 4 percentage points of outperformance in growth versus dividends was over a year ago in the spring of 2023. Looking back further, there have been multiple other comparable instances since the COVID crash, but there are zero examples before 2020.
For value, that relative weakness versus growth is again at historic levels for a one-week span. There has been a five percentage point difference between the two over the past week. As with growth versus dividends, that is the widest degree of outperformance since the spring of 2023 with many other occurrences since early 2020. One difference, however, is that there are also a couple of examples to draw from back during the Financial Crisis years (the first in October 2008 and the second in March 2009).
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The Bespoke 50 Growth Stocks — 12/5/24
The “Bespoke 50” is a basket of noteworthy growth stocks in the Russell 3,000. To make the list, a stock must have strong earnings growth prospects along with an attractive price chart based on Bespoke’s analysis. There were 8 changes to the list this week.
The Bespoke 50 is available with a Bespoke Premium subscription or a Bespoke Institutional subscription. With Bespoke Premium, you’ll receive a number of daily market updates from us along with our weekly newsletter and a portion of our investor tools. With Bespoke Institutional, you’ll receive everything that’s included with Premium plus additional daily macro analysis and more stock-specific research.
To see all 50 stocks that currently make up the Bespoke 50, simply start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium or Bespoke Institutional.
The Bespoke 50 performance chart shown does not represent actual investment results. The Bespoke 50 is updated monthly on Thursdays unless otherwise noted. Performance is based on equally weighting each of the 50 stocks (2% each) and is calculated using each stock’s opening price as of Friday morning after publication. Entry prices and exit prices used for stocks that are added or removed from the Bespoke 50 are based on Friday’s opening price. Any potential commissions, brokerage fees, or dividends are not included in the Bespoke 50 performance calculation, but the performance shown is net of a hypothetical annual advisory fee of 0.85%. Performance tracking for the Bespoke 50 and the Russell 3,000 total return index begins on March 5th, 2012 when the Bespoke 50 was first published. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The Bespoke 50 is meant to be an idea generator for investors and not a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. It is not personalized advice because it in no way takes into account an investor’s individual needs. As always, investors should conduct their own research when buying or selling individual securities. Click here to read our full disclosure on hypothetical performance tracking. Bespoke representatives or wealth management clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.
Chart of the Day – Williams Cos (WMB)
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 12/5/24 – Do You Believe?
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“If you don’t believe me or don’t get it, I don’t have time to try to convince you, sorry.” ― Satoshi
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
As we type this, futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are down 0.01% while Dow futures are unchanged. This comes after all three indices hit record highs yesterday. On the economic calendar, initial jobless claims came in modestly higher than expected while continuing claims fell back below 1.90 million to 1.871 million
In Asia, the Nikkei was modestly higher as expectations for a December rate hike were dialed back following comments from a BoJ official saying that he expects inflation to fall back below the 2% target in 2025 as he sees wage growth slowing down. In South Korea, President Yoon is expected to be the subject of an impeachment vote over the weekend, and Q3 GDP came in weaker than expected rising by just 0.1% compared to expectations for growth of 0.5%.
In Europe this morning, equities are trading modestly higher as the market increasingly expects the ECB to cut rates at its policy meeting next week as October Retail Sales for the region fell more than expected (-0.5% vs -0.4%).
It’s hard to believe that the election was only a month ago today, and it’s equally hard to believe the move in Bitcoin during that time. After closing just above $69,000 on Election Day, overnight the world’s largest cryptocurrency topped $100,000 for the first time, and this morning those gains have continued as it trades right around $103K. In a month, Bitcoin has rallied nearly 50%. In terms of market cap, that works out to more than $400 billion! While all three major US equity indices hit all-time highs yesterday, Bitcoin saw those gains and one-upped the equity market overnight.
We’ve shown versions of the chart below numerous times over the last few weeks, but the cup-and-handle breakout formation in Bitcoin is textbook.
While Bitcoin has been hitting record highs for the last couple of weeks now, last night’s move was notable for another reason besides crossing $100K for the first time. In yesterday’s DealBook conference, Fed Chair Powell referred to Bitcoin as “just like gold only it’s digital”. The chart below shows the historical ratio of Bitcoin to an ounce of gold. The last peak in this ratio occurred in November 2021, but with yesterday’s move above $100K, the ratio between digital and physical gold also broke out to a new record high. Just like Powell, investors increasingly appear to view Bitcoin as a digital version of gold, that’s a lot easier to store and move around.
