The Bespoke Report – 6/13/25 – There’s Always Something
To read our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. In this week’s report, we cover everything happening across financial markets after another wild week.
Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Adobe (ADBE)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Adobe’s (ADBE) Q2 2025 earnings call.
Adobe (ADBE) is a global software leader best known for its creative and digital experience tools, including Photoshop, Acrobat, and Adobe Experience Cloud. It empowers a wide spectrum of users, from students and freelancers to enterprises, to create, manage, and optimize digital content. The company is at the forefront of AI-driven creativity through its proprietary Firefly models, which generate commercially safe content across images, video, and design. Adobe serves business professionals, consumers, marketers, and creatives, and offers a unique window into how digital content creation and personalization are evolving at scale. Adobe delivered record revenue of $5.87B (up 11% YoY), driven by strong AI adoption and innovation. Firefly content generations topped 24B, with paid Firefly subscriptions nearly doubling QoQ. Monthly active users across Acrobat and Express surpassed 700M, reflecting the convergence of productivity and creativity. Enterprise demand for GenStudio and AEP surged, with AEP subscription revenue growing over 40% YoY. Adobe’s focus on ethical, IP-safe AI continues to differentiate it, particularly amid rising scrutiny of generative content models. Despite better-than-expected results, shares of ADBE tumbled as much as almost 7% on 6/13, the company’s fourth straight decline after posting EPS and revenue beats…
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 6/13/25
Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: RH (RH)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers RH’s (RH) Q1 2025 earnings call.
RH (RH), formerly Restoration Hardware, is a luxury lifestyle brand that designs and sells premium home furnishings, lighting, textiles, and décor, complemented by a growing global hospitality business that includes restaurants and guesthouses. It serves affluent consumers and design professionals through immersive physical galleries, sourcebooks, and a membership model that offers exclusive pricing. Despite operating in what CEO Gary Friedman called the “worst housing market in nearly 50 years,” RH grew revenue 12% but that still missed the estimate. Tariff uncertainty disrupted Q2 shipments, prompting RH to delay a major new concept launch to Spring 2026. The company permanently raised its membership discount to 30% and briefly offered 35% off outdoor to seize share during peak season. RH continues investing heavily in global expansion, with Paris, London, and Milan openings planned and international demand up 60%. On mixed results, RH shares were up as much as 20%. Not bad for Friday the 13th…
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 6/13/25 – So Much for a Summer Friday
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Being Irish, he had an abiding sense of tragedy, which sustained him through temporary periods of joy.” – WB Yeats
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
If you were planning on a slow summer Friday, renewed tensions in the Middle East have damaged those plans this morning. Equity futures are off their overnight lows, but the S&P 500 is still indicated to open down by about 1%. The real action is obviously in the energy markets as crude oil trades sharply higher.
The US Oil Fund ETF (USO) is trading up over 7.5% in the pre-market, which would put it on pace for the sixth-largest opening gap to the upside since the ETF’s inception in 2006. It would also be just the 24th time that USO gapped up over 5%. In terms of the prior 7.5% gaps higher, USO continued higher from the open to close for a median gain of 2.1% and positive returns four out of five times. However, by the close of the following day, USO was down a median of 1.6% from the initial gap higher with declines three out of five times, and a week after that opening gap, it was down four out of five times for a median decline of 2.2%. Historically, at least, these sharp gaps higher haven’t had a lot of follow-through.
As far as the price of oil is concerned, this morning’s gap higher has helped to confirm what was already a break of the downtrend that had been in place since mid-January. It also cleared what could have been a formidable level of resistance in the $75 range.
As luck would have it, today is also Friday the 13th, and while the day has unlucky connotations, in terms of market performance, it has been anything but. Since its launch in 1993, the S&P 500 ETF’s (SPY) average daily change has been a gain of 3.9 bps, with gains 53.6% of the time. Fridays, however, haven’t been as positive as SPY’s average performance is unchanged, with gains 52.1% of the time. On the 53 prior Friday the 13ths, though, SPY’s median gain was 20 bps with gains 60% of the time, and on the four prior times that there has been a Friday the 13th in June, SPY’s median gain was 57 bps with gains three out of four times. Will investors buy the dip again and keep the positive June Friday the 13th vibes going?
The Closer – MPC, Immigration, Freight – 6/12/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, first up is commentary regarding the latest CBO analysis of the tax and spending bill (page 1) followed by a discussion on claims data and impacts of deportations on labor supply (page 2). We move on to discuss the latest freight data released by Cass Information Systems (page 3) and the latest performance of the Dow Transports (page 4). Over the remaining pages, we given an update on the Federal Reserves’ quarterly update of sectoral balance sheets (pages 5 and 6).
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Bespoke’s Weekly Sector Snapshot — 6/12/25
Sentiment Around New Highs
In Tuesday’s Closer, we provided an update on monthly sentiment gauges, noting broad improvements since the April low. Of those inputs that have perked up is the weekly AAII survey. This week’s release saw the percentage of respondents reporting as bullish rise once again, to a two-week high of 36.7%.
The other side of the equation—the percentage of respondents reporting as bearish—had a more notable move this week. Only 33.6% of respondents were bears, which was the lowest reading since the week of January 23.
Put together, the bull-bear spread came in at 3.1, or alternatively, bulls outnumber bears by 3.1 percentage points. There was another positive reading in the spread a couple weeks ago, but this is the highest spread since the last week of January when it was at 7. In all, this indicates that investors have begun to shift more bullish rather than the consistent bearish tones from the past few months.
Also worth noting is that investors’ sentiment has made this improvement in tandem with a push in stock prices back near record highs. As the S&P 500 is about 1.5% below its February 19 peak, the current level of sentiment is actually lower than what might be expected. Historically, AAII sentiment (measured by the bull-bear spread) has averaged more bullish readings when the S&P is closer to a record, and readings become more bearish as it falls further from the highs (save for extreme drawdowns where sentiment actually begins to pivot to be more bullish). For the present distance from a high, the bull-bear spread has historically averaged in the high single digits compared to 3.1 today. In other words, sentiment does not appear to have gotten over its skis as the index attempts to break out.
Chart of the Day – Blue Chips That Fell Behind
Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Oracle (ORCL)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Oracle’s (ORCL) Q4 2025 earnings call.
Oracle (ORCL) is a global leader in enterprise software, cloud infrastructure, and database technology. Best known for its Oracle Database, ORCL’s offerings span cloud applications (SaaS), infrastructure (IaaS), and advanced data management tools that support artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and analytics at scale. ORCL’s Q4 results showed accelerating demand across its cloud infrastructure and applications, with total revenue rising 11% YoY to $15.9B and cloud revenue (SaaS + IaaS) jumping 27% to $6.7B. OCI (Oracle Cloud Infrastructure) revenue grew 52%, while autonomous database consumption climbed 47%. Management emphasized overwhelming demand for cloud capacity, forcing ORCL to turn customers away and ramp CapEx to $25B+ for fiscal 2026. ORCL’s vector-based AI platform (Oracle 23ai) and its ability to serve LLMs with private enterprise data were a major focus, positioning the company as a key enabler of real-world AI deployment. The $138B RPO backlog (+41% YoY) and new mega-contracts with firms like Temu reflect explosive interest in ORCL’s cloud stack and multi-cloud flexibility. Shares of ORCL hit an all-time high, up more than 14%, on 6/12 after posting better-than-expected results…
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