The Closer – Tariffs, MAHA, Consumer Debt – 2/13/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with commentary regarding the latest tariff news in addition to an overview of PPI data (page 1). We then recap the latest earnings (page 2) followed by a look at stocks that are poised to be helped and hurt by MAHA policies (pages 3 and 4). Next, we dive into consumer debt data (page 5) before closing out with a review of today’s long bond auction (page 6).
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Bespoke’s Weekly Sector Snapshot — 2/13/25
Chart of the Day: Europe Surges
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 2/13/25 – The Meh Seven
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“With regard to matters requiring thought: the less people know and understand about them, the more positively they attempt to argue concerning them.” – Galileo
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
What looked like it would be a troublesome day for bulls yesterday took a positive turn as the S&P 500 opened down nearly 1% at the open after CPI came in surprisingly high. The opening ticks were as bad as things got, though, and from there, stocks staged a comeback throughout the trading session even as yields only pulled back modestly from their intraday highs.
The S&P 500 successfully tested its 50-day moving average right at the open, but bulls still have something to prove as a pattern of lower highs has started to set in since the high in late January. Individual investors appear to be increasingly worried about the market’s churning lately as the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) gauge of bearish sentiment has surged from 34.0% to 47.3% in the last two weeks!
This morning, futures sit right around the unchanged level ahead of the January PPI and after a rollercoaster overnight session where futures sold off into the Asian close and have rallied since then as European stocks rally (again).
The Closer – CPI, Magnificent 7, Deficit – 2/12/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a rundown of today’s CPI data (page 1 and 2) including a look at how the market reacted to the release (page 3). We then review the latest earnings reports (page 4) before finishing with overviews of the latest EIA data (page 5) and 10-year note auction (page 6).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Daily Sector Snapshot — 2/12/25
Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Upstart (UPST)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Upstart’s (UPST) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Upstart (UPST) is an AI-driven lending platform that uses machine learning models to assess creditworthiness beyond traditional FICO scores. The company partners with banks and credit unions to offer personal loans, auto refinancing, and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). What sets Upstart apart is its proprietary AI underwriting, which means faster approvals, higher accuracy in risk assessment, and automation rates exceeding 90%. UPST closed 2024 highlighting loan originations up 68% YoY and revenue that jumped 56% YoY to $219M. AI innovation was a major theme, with Model 19 introducing the Payment Transition Model (PTM), improving default predictions. The Upstart Macro Index (UMI) improved, helping stabilize credit performance. Auto and HELOC originations grew 60% sequentially, and small-dollar loans soared 115%. The company expanded funding, adding $1.3B in new commitments and a $150M warehouse facility. CEO Dave Girouard emphasized plans to “10x” AI leadership in 2025, while the company aims for profitability in second half of 2025. After its third straight earnings triple play, UPST skyrocketed almost 30% on Wednesday morning, 2/12…
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Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Zillow (ZG)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Zillow’s (ZG) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Zillow (ZG) is the dominant online real estate marketplace, providing home buyers, sellers, renters, and real estate professionals with data-driven tools to navigate the housing market. The company’s platform includes home listings, rental properties, mortgages, and real estate agent services, with its “Housing Super App” that aims to digitize every stage of a real estate transaction. ZG serves both individual consumers and industry professionals, offering insights into housing trends, affordability, and market conditions. Its Zestimate home valuation tool and integration of AI-driven features like Zillow Showcase make it a leader in real estate technology. This quarter, ZG posted $554 million in Q4 revenue, up 17% YoY, despite a sluggish housing market with only 6% total transaction value growth. The enhanced market expansion strategy drove stronger conversions, with 21% of transactions now in these markets, expected to reach 35% in 2025. Mortgage revenue soared 86% YoY, with Zillow Home Loans adoption climbing. Rental revenue jumped 25%, fueled by a new Redfin partnership and an expanded multifamily property count of 50,000 (up from 37,000 in 2023). AI-powered features, including Zillow Showcase, helped drive a 2% premium on listings. While home affordability remains a challenge, ZG notes that a shortage of 4.5 million homes remains a structural constraint. ZG beat estimates but cut guidance, and the stock fell as much as 14.2% on Wednesday morning, 2/12…
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Chart of the Day: Hot CPI Days
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 2/12/25 – Stall Speed
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“Time would become meaningless if there were too much of it.” – Ray Kurzweil
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Equity futures are mixed heading into the open and the January CPI report but based on Powell’s testimony in front of the US Senate yesterday, this report will probably have no impact on short-term Fed policy which looks to be on hold. A key reason for that view from the Fed is that while inflation has come down considerably from its peak, it’s become stuck at levels too high for the Fed’s liking. Hence, the moderately restrictive policy stance.
The chart of Core CPI encapsulates this pattern. After peaking at a year/year rate of 6.6% in September 2022, Core CPI steadily pulled back over the next 20 months dropping to a rate of 3.2% last July. Since July, though, the core inflation rate has been stuck at that 3.2% level. The year/year rate was forecast to fall to 3.1% in this morning’s report for January which would have been the lowest rate since April 2021. The actual rate came in higher than expected at 3.3% which is still within the stall speed range we’ve been in since last July. Even if the y/y rate did fall to 3.1%, though, the core rate would still be 0.7 ppts above its pre-Covid peak of 2.4% from 2015 through 2020.
