The Closer – Reversal, NVDA Boost, Outlook Up, 30Y TIPS – 8/24/23
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a look at the failure of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to reclaim their 50-DMAs (page 1) followed by a review of the biggest positive contributors to the S&P 500’s moves month and year to date (pages 2 and 3). We then update our Five Fed Manufacturing Composite (page 4) followed by a recap of today’s 30 year TIPS auction (page 5).
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The Bespoke 50 Growth Stocks — 8/24/23
The “Bespoke 50” is a basket of noteworthy growth stocks in the Russell 3,000. To make the list, a stock must have strong earnings growth prospects along with an attractive price chart based on Bespoke’s analysis. The Bespoke 50 is updated weekly on Thursday unless otherwise noted. There were twenty changes to the list this week.
The Bespoke 50 is available with a Bespoke Premium subscription or a Bespoke Institutional subscription. With Bespoke Premium, you’ll receive a number of daily market updates from us along with our weekly newsletter and a portion of our investor tools. With Bespoke Institutional, you’ll receive everything that’s included with Premium plus additional daily macro analysis and more stock-specific research.
To see all 50 stocks that currently make up the Bespoke 50, simply start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium or Bespoke Institutional.
The Bespoke 50 performance chart shown does not represent actual investment results. The Bespoke 50 is updated weekly on Thursday. Performance is based on equally weighting each of the 50 stocks (2% each) and is calculated using each stock’s opening price as of Friday morning each week. Entry prices and exit prices used for stocks that are added or removed from the Bespoke 50 are based on Friday’s opening price. Any potential commissions, brokerage fees, or dividends are not included in the Bespoke 50 performance calculation, but the performance shown is net of a hypothetical annual advisory fee of 0.85%. Performance tracking for the Bespoke 50 and the Russell 3,000 total return index begins on March 5th, 2012 when the Bespoke 50 was first published. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The Bespoke 50 is meant to be an idea generator for investors and not a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. It is not personalized advice because it in no way takes into account an investor’s individual needs. As always, investors should conduct their own research when buying or selling individual securities. Click here to read our full disclosure on hypothetical performance tracking. Bespoke representatives or wealth management clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.
Chart of the Day: Did AI Save the Market?
Bespoke’s Weekly Sector Snapshot — 8/24/23
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 8/24/23 – Irony
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Life is fragile. We’re not guaranteed a tomorrow so give it everything you’ve got.” – Tim Cook
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There’s a positive mood across the global equity universe as stocks in Asia had a positive day, Europe is trading higher, and US futures are indicating a gain of about 0.6% at the opening bell, half of which can be attributed to Nvidia’s (NVDA) 9% pre-market gain. Commodities are mixed but skewed to the downside, and both the dollar and US Treasury yields are slightly higher. It’s a busy morning for economic data with jobless claims, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, and Durable Goods at 8:30 and Kansas City Fed Manufacturing at 11:00.
The August pullback in equities has had the desired effect on sentiment as AAII’s weekly sentiment survey showed bullish sentiment declining for the third week in a row falling from 35.9% down to 32.3%. That’s the lowest level since May 31st, and represents a nearly 20 percentage point decline from its recent peak of 51.4% on 7/19.
It’s hard to think about a more fitting statement from Tim Cook regarding his predecessor who resigned on this day twelve years ago. After taking a leave of absence in January 2011 due to his battle with pancreatic cancer, Jobs formally stepped down as CEO on 8/24/11. The news was made public after the close, and shares fell sharply in the after-hours session before recovering. The following morning AAPL dropped by just about 3% as analysts came out and defended the stock, and by the end of the day it was down less than 1%. At first glance, the fact that the stock had such a muted reaction on news of the departure of one of the all-time greatest tech visionaries may seem counterintuitive, but Jobs had already given up most of his day-to-day responsibilities. While no one could fill the shoes of a leader like Jobs, Tim Cook had (and continues) proved that he was more than capable of leading the company. Just 41 days after formally leaving Apple, Steve Jobs passed away on 10/5/11.
The chart below shows the market cap of Apple since Steve Jobs returned to the company as CEO in 1997 through today. Its market cap under Jobs is shown in blue, while Cook’s tenure is shown in green. One of the most ironic aspects of the chart is that the vast majority of Apple’s market cap has accrued under Cook’s tenure. When Jobs stepped down, Apple’s market cap was just under $348 billion compared to $2.8 billion today. Put differently, more than 87% of the company’s current market cap came during the Cook years compared to less than 13% under Jobs. Even crazier is the fact that in the 13 trading days that followed its peak on 7/31 through the close a week ago on 8/17, Apple lost more in market cap ($369 billion) than the company had accrued from the time it was founded through Jobs’ ultimate departure.
Obviously, this is a major oversimplification of the impact Steve Jobs had on Apple as well as the entire US economy, bit it also illustrates the importance of compounding, and Steve Jobs left Tim Cook with more than a substantial base to build off.
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The Closer – NVDA Beat, PMI Flop, NFP Revisions, New Home Sales – 8/23/23
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, after a recap of the blockbuster earnings from NVIDIA (NVDA), we show the collapse is WeWork (WE) valuation (page 1). We then take a look at the latest S&P Global PMIs and revision to jobs data (page 2). Next, we run through the latest housing data in the form of Toll Brothers (TOL) earnings and new home sales (page 3 and 4). Afterward, we review the surge in domestic crude production (page 5) and weak 20 year bond auction (page 6).
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 8/23/23
B.I.G. Tips – 300 Days
Chart of the Day: Holding Out for Jackson Hole
Fixed Income Weekly — 8/23/23
Searching for ways to better understand the fixed income space or looking for actionable ideas in this asset class? Bespoke’s Fixed Income Weekly provides an update on rates and credit each week. We start off with a fresh piece of analysis driven by what’s in the headlines or driving the market in a given week. We then provide charts of how US Treasury futures and rates are trading, before moving on to a summary of recent fixed-income ETF performance, short-term interest rates including money market funds, and a trade idea. We summarize changes and recent developments for a variety of yield curves (UST, bund, Eurodollar, US breakeven inflation, and Bespoke’s Global Yield Curve) before finishing with a review of recent UST yield curve changes, spread changes for major credit products and international bonds, and 1-year return profiles for a cross-section of the fixed income world.
Our Fixed Income Weekly helps investors stay on top of fixed-income markets and gain new perspectives on the developments in interest rates. You can sign up for a Bespoke research trial below to see this week’s report and everything else Bespoke publishes for the next two weeks!
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