The Bespoke Report Newsletter — 9/1/23
To read our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. Check out two new Triple Play Reports and our Economic Indicators Matrix as well if you missed them earlier this week.
Daily Sector Snapshot — 9/1/23
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 9/1/23- The One That Got Away
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Security is mostly superstition. It does not exist in nature, nor do the children of men as a whole experience it. Avoiding danger is no safer in the long run than outright exposure. Life is either a daring adventure or nothing.” — Helen Keller
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It may be the Friday before Labor Day weekend (doesn’t it seem like we were just saying Memorial Day?), but it’s a bananas day for economic data with Non Farm Payrolls and ISM Manufacturing both being reported on the same day. Not only that, but there’s a couple of Fed speakers on the calendar as well. Bostic already spoke, and the key item from his speech was that there is “a shaking out that’s about to happen” in the debt markets which hardly sounds like an endorsement of higher rates. Shortly after the open, we’ll also hear from the usually hawkish Cleveland Fed President Mester.
Leading up to the Non Farm Payrolls report, futures have actually been picking up steam and are firmly in positive territory as treasury yields fall. The catalyst has been some better than expected earnings after the close on Thursday. In Europe, the major indices are higher despite a weaker than expected manufacturing PMI for August. It’s a good start, but the upcoming data is likely to have more of an impact on where things go from here. Investors have been encouraged by secondary employment reports suggesting some slack in the labor market, so a much stronger than expected report this morning would be a disappointment but could also be viewed as an outlier.
If you’ve been paying attention to the market this year, you know that Nvidia has been the biggest market winner by far, gaining over 230% through the end of August. Not only has it led every other S&P 500 stock, but its 13,275% gain also easily makes it the best performing stock over the last ten years. The next closest behind Nvidia during the last decade was AMD with a gain of ‘only’ 3,120%. If you really want to kick yourself heading into the weekend, just think, if you had invested $10,000 in Nvidia ten years ago, you’d have more than $1.3 million today. Now that’s an inflation hedge!
Realistically, even if you had the foresight to buy it ten years ago, would you really have had the stomach to hold it for ten years? The chart below shows the stock’s distance from all-time highs dating back to its IPO in 1999. Look at the swings. In October 2002 at the depths of the dotcom bust, Nvidia was down 90% from its all-time high. It recovered all those losses and more in the subsequent bull market, but during the Financial Crisis, it fell more than 85%. In its entire history as a public company, Nvidia’s average distance from an all-time high has been 40%. How many investors are willing to hold on to a stock in a 40% drawdown, let alone a drawdown of 90%?
Even in the last ten years, Nvidia has caused more stress than most doctors would consider healthy. The average distance it has traded from an all-time high is over 25%, and there have been two different periods when the stock fell over 50%, including a 66% drawdown as recently as last October. It’s always nice to dream of what could have been, but in some ways maybe it’s better if you never owned it at all. Think about it, how frustrated would you be if you bought NVDA ten years ago only to sell it after a 20% gain thinking you were smart, or even worse, selling it at a 15% or even 30% loss before it turned around. And if you did buy it ten years ago and managed to hold it all this time? Congratulations! You made the investment of a lifetime.
When hearing stories like this, the first thing most of us ask is, “What’s the next Nvidia?” The most important takeaway of the story, though, isn’t how Nvidia did from point to point but how it did in between. The biggest rewards in the market go hand in hand with the biggest risks, and if you want the former, make sure you’re prepared for the latter.
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Bespoke Market Calendar — September 2023
Please click the image below to view our September 2023 market calendar. This calendar includes the S&P 500’s historical average percentage change and average intraday chart pattern for each trading day during the upcoming month. It also includes market holidays and options expiration dates plus the dates of key economic indicator releases. Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.
The Closer – Down in August, Personal Income and Spending – 8/31/23
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start out with a look at the weak performance of equities and fixed income in August (page 1) followed by a look into the details of today’s personal spending and income data (pages 2 and 3).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Q2 2023 Earnings Conference Call Recaps
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps provide helpful summaries of corporate conference calls throughout earnings season. We go through the conference calls of some of the most important companies in the market and summarize key topics covered by management. These recaps include information regarding each company’s financial results, growth by segment, as well as some aspects of the business that management expects to impact future results. We also identify trends emerging for the broader economy in these recaps.
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps are available at the Bespoke Institutional level only. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call recaps. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Bespoke Institutional – Monthly Payment Plan
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Below is a list of the Conference Call Recaps published during the Q2 2023 and Q1 2023 earnings reporting periods.
Q2 2023 Recaps:
Chewy: Q2 2023
NVIDIA: Q2 2024
Walmart: Q2 2024
Target: Q2 2023
Home Depot: Q2 2023
YETI: Q2 2023
Disney: Q3 2023
Rivian: Q2 2023
Palantir: Q2 2023
Elanco: Q2 2023
Amazon: Q2 2023
Apple: Q3 2023
Visteon: Q2 2023
Caterpillar: Q2 2023
Aercap: Q2 2023
McDonald’s: Q2 2023
Lennox: Q2 2023
Meta: Q2 2023
Chipotle: Q2 2023
Microsoft: Q4 2023
Alphabet: Q2 2023
Lamb Weston: Q4 2023
Corning: Q2 2023
General Electric: Q2 2023
NXP Semiconductors: Q2 2023
Domino’s Pizza: Q2 2023
Philip Morris: Q2 2023
D.R. Horton: Q3 2023
Tesla: Q2 2023
Netflix: Q2 2023
Lockheed Martin: Q2 2023
JB Hunt Transport: Q2 2023
Bank of America: Q2 2023
Charles Schwab: Q2 2023
Big Banks (JPM, C, WFC): Q2 2023
Fastenal: Q2 2023
Delta Air Lines: Q2 2023
PepsiCo: Q2 2023
Nike: Q4 2023
Greenbrier: Q3 2023
Micron: Q3 2023
General Mills: Q4 2023
AeroVironment: Q4 2023
Walgreens: Q3 2023
TD Synnex: Q2 2023
Darden Restaurants: Q4 2023
CarMax: Q1 2024
Winnebago: Q3 2023
Accenture: Q3 2023
KB Home: Q2 2023
FedEx: Q4 2023
Adobe: Q2 2023
Kroger: Q1 2023
Lennar: Q2 2023
Q1 2023 Recaps:
Oracle: Q4 2023
Broadcom: Q2 2023
Dollar General: Q1 2023
Lululemon: Q1 2023
Nordstrom: Q1 2024
Salesforce: Q1 2024
NVIDIA: Q1 2024
RH: Q1 2023
Home Depot: Q1 2023
Tyson: Q2 2023
TreeHouse Foods: Q1 2023
Palantir: Q1 2023
Generac: Q1 2023
Visteon: Q1 2023
Meta: Q1 2023
Alphabet: Q1 2023
Spotify: Q1 2023
McDonald’s: Q1 2023
Tesla (TSLA): Q1 2023
Procter & Gamble (PG): Q1 2023
Big Banks (JPM, C, BAC, GS): Q1 2023
JB Hunt Transport: Q1 2023
BlackRock: Q1 2023
Delta: Q1 2023
Conagra Brands: Q3 2023
Lululemon: Q4 2022
Lennar: Q1 2023
Recaps published during Q1 2023 are available with a Bespoke Institutional subscription
Bespoke’s Weekly Sector Snapshot — 8/31/23
The Triple Play Report — 8/31/23
An earnings triple play is a stock that reports earnings and manages to 1) beat analyst EPS estimates, 2) beat analyst sales estimates, and 3) raise forward guidance. You can read more about “triple plays” at Investopedia.com where they’ve given Bespoke credit for popularizing the term. We like triple plays as an indication that a company’s business is firing on all cylinders, with better-than-expected results and an improving outlook. A triple play is indicative of positive “fundamental momentum” instead of pure fundamentals, and there are always plenty of names with both high and low valuations on our quarterly list.
Bespoke’s Triple Play Report highlights companies that have recently reported earnings triple plays, and it features commentary from management on triple-play conference calls, company descriptions and analysis, and price charts. Bespoke’s Triple Play Report is available at the Bespoke Institutional level only. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read this week’s Triple Play Report, which features 13 new stocks. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Bespoke Institutional – Monthly Payment Plan
Bespoke Institutional – Annual Payment Plan
Alarm.com (ALRM) is an example of a company that reported an earnings triple play recently back on the evening of August 9th. As shown below, ALRM’s share price has been in an uptrend since May and is now trading above both its 50 and 200-day moving averages after its triple play earnings report on the 9th sent shares up 24% on the day.
As shown in the snapshot from our Earnings Explorer below, Alarm.com (ALRM) has now posted 33 straight EPS and revenue beats! This quarter the company also raised guidance, which represented its first triple play in two years. Investors reacted positively to the report as the company introduced new products like the first battery free video doorbell and efforts to make inroads in the commercial sector. You can read more about ALRM and the 12 other triple plays in our newest report by starting a Bespoke Institutional trial today.
Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes all information contained in these reports to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in these reports or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. This is not personalized advice. Investors should do their own research and/or work with an investment professional when making portfolio decisions. As always, past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results. Bespoke representatives or clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.
B.I.G. Tips – Earnings Triple Plays Recap: Q2 2023
Today we published our newest Earnings Triple Plays report. During the just-completed Q2 2023 earnings reporting period, there were a total of 142 earnings triple plays out of just under 2,000 individual quarterly earnings reports from US-listed stocks. That’s 15 more than the 127 triple plays we saw during the prior earnings reporting period.
What is a triple play? When a stock reports quarterly earnings, it registers a “triple play” when it beats analyst EPS estimates, beats analyst revenue estimates, and raises forward guidance. We coined the term back in the mid-2000s, and you can read more about it at Investopedia.com. We consider triple plays to be the cream of the crop of earnings season, and we’re constantly finding new long-term opportunities from this basket of names each quarter. You can track the newest earnings triple plays on a daily basis at our Triple Plays page if you’re a Bespoke Premium or Bespoke Institutional member. To read our newest report and see some of the triple plays with intriguing charts at the moment, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium!
Bespoke’s Matrix of Economic Indicators – 8/31/23
Our Matrix of Economic Indicators provides a concise summary analysis of the US economy’s momentum. We combine trends across the dozens and dozens of economic indicators in various categories like manufacturing, employment, housing, the consumer, and inflation to provide a directional overview of the economy.
To access our newest Matrix of Economic Indicators, start a two-week free trial to either Bespoke Premium or Bespoke Institutional now!
