Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 10/4/23 – And Then There Were None
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“Being an intellectual creates a lot of questions and no answers.” – Janis Joplin
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Unlike most other days recently, futures have been rallying as we approach the opening bell. While the bounce started before the ADP employment report, it picked up steam after that release came in weaker than expected. Now, we just need to get through Factory Orders, Durable Goods, and most importantly, ISM Services at 10 AM.
After two months of steadily lower trending markets, the number of sector ETFs trading above their 50-day moving average (DMA) is finally down to zero as the Energy sector ETF (XLE) surrendered that level this week. While XLE is less than 0.1% below its 50-DMA, every other sector ETF is trading at least 2% below its 50-DMA (Communication Services), and Utilities and Real Estate are both more than 9% below their respective 50-DMAs.
So, when was the last time this happened? The chart below shows the running total number of sector ETFs above their 50-DMAs, and while it got close to zero in the spring, the last time it was zero was exactly a year ago yesterday (10/3/22), and before that, in the summer of 2022. In the entire post-COVID era, this current period is just the sixth time that a sell-off has resulted in every sector trading below its 50-DMA.
Looking at the longer-term 200-DMA, the only sectors currently trading above that level are Energy (4.2%), Consumer Discretionary (2.1%), Communication Services (8.6%), and Technology (5.7%). Like the 50-DMA, the last time every sector ETF was below their respective 200-DMA was briefly last fall and before that in the summer. In the post-COVID period, though, the only other period where every sector was below its 200-DMA was during the initial market crash when the virus first shut down the US economy. With two sectors still trading more than 5% above their 200-DMAs, it would take a considerable amount of more selling to get that reading back to zero. Something no one’s portfolio wants to see.
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The Closer – Speaker Vacancy, Utes Valuations, LMI – 10/3/23
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with commentary regarding the speaker vacancy (page 1) followed by a dive into Utilities valuations (page 2). We then look at the latest JOLTS report (page 3) and Logistics Managers Index data (pages 4-6). We finish with a look at farmer sentiment (page 7).
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 10/3/23
Bespoke Stock Scores — 10/3/23
Labor Demand Holds Up
This morning we received two of the latest updates on labor market demand with the release of the August JOLTS report in addition to postings data from Indeed through the end of September. The JOLTS report came in well above expectations (9.61 million versus 8.83 expected) indicating a solid rebound in labor market demand headed out of the summer. In spite of that positive reading, the overall trend of lower openings remains in place and is echoed by Indeed’s data. As shown below, the more timely and higher frequency postings data has also been trending lower since the end of 2021. That being said, the summer has seen those declines decelerating with postings only slightly lower over the past three months. Modeling the JOLTS number on the less lagged Indeed data would predict that postings would remain around these levels next month. In tonight’s Closer, we will provide a full rundown of the latest JOLTS report.
In addition to national reads on job postings, the Indeed data also provides geographic breakdowns by US metro, and in the table below, we highlight the 25 MSAs (metropolitan statistical area) that have seen the best and worst postings growth relative to pre-pandemic baselines as well as how far they have fallen from their respective peaks (we highlight when each of those peaks were as well). Many of those with the highest number of openings relative to pre-pandemic are also those with smaller populations. Conversely, many of the largest metros have seen job postings fall off the most. There have also been a growing number of cities where postings are now below pre-pandemic levels. San Francisco is the worst of these with postings down nearly 20% from baseline.
Chart of the Day – Breadth Reaching Extremes
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 10/3/23 – Lights Out
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“Half of tradition is a lie.” ― Stephen Crane
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Yields are higher again this morning, which means stocks are trading lower. It’s gotten to the point where we picture Bill Murray smashing the alarm clock which is playing “I Got You Babe”. The 10-year yield is nearing 4.75% while the 30-year yield has broken above 4.85% as it joins the list of points on the yield curve that are at their highest levels since 2007. The only data on the economic calendar this morning is the August JOLTS report which is expected to show a modest increase in job openings from 8.83 million to 8.90 million.
As rates rise, Utility stocks have been decimated, and yesterday the S&P 500 Utility sector closed 3.2 standard deviations below its 50-day moving average which is the most oversold reading for the sector since February 2021, and it isn’t often that you see the sector get this oversold.
In the short-term, the sector’s 11% decline is the steepest five-day decline since last June, but the difference between these two periods is that back in June 2022, the S&P 500 was down over 10% during that same five-day span while it’s only down 1% in the current five-day span.
The chart below shows the five-day performance spread between the S&P 500 Utility sector and the S&P 500. After adjusting for the S&P 500’s performance, the Utility sector is underperforming the S&P 500 by the widest margin over a five-day period since October 2002!
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The Closer – 10/2/23
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a look at bank reserves and the latest PMIs (page 1) followed by a look at today’s construction spending and ISM data (page 2). We then show how the Russell 2,000 has erased all of its year to date gains (page 3) before turning over to a rundown of the latest delinquency data (page 4). We finish with our weekly recap of positioning data (pages 5-8).
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