Daily Sector Snapshot — 11/7/23
Bespoke Stock Scores — 11/7/23
Chart of the Day – Moody Markets
October 2023 Headlines
Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report — November 2023
Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report is an analysis of a huge consumer survey that we run each month. Our goal with this survey is to track trends across the economic and financial landscape in the US. Using the results from our proprietary monthly survey, we dissect and analyze all of the data and publish the Consumer Pulse Report, which we sell access to on a subscription basis. Sign up for a 30-day free trial to our Bespoke Consumer Pulse subscription service. With a trial, you’ll get coverage of consumer electronics, social media, streaming media, retail, autos, and much more. The report also has numerous proprietary US economic data points that are extremely timely and useful for investors.
We’ve just released our most recent monthly report to Pulse subscribers, and it’s definitely worth the read if you’re curious about the health of the consumer in the current market environment. Start a 30-day free trial for a full breakdown of all of our proprietary Pulse economic indicators.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 11/7/23 – A Day of Rest
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Man is the only creature who refuses to be what he is.” – Albert Camus
Below is some introductory commentary of today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to get full access.
And on the seventh day, the market rested. After six straight days of the rally looks like it’s taking a day off as equities, crude oil, gold, bitcoin, and even treasury yields are lower. Some of the concerns this morning can be tied to comments made by Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari who said he cannot rule out further rate hikes. On the economic calendar, it’s another light session this morning as will be the case most of the week even as the quantity of earnings reports remains very busy.
Over in Europe, the major indices are all down between 0.1% and 0.5%. PPI for the region was down an incredible 12.4%, and what was even more incredible was that it was a smaller decline than expected! In Germany, construction data was weaker than expected and showed the weakest level of activity since April 2020.
While momentum in the market pulled back yesterday, last week’s rally was accompanied by exceptionally strong breadth. As an example, the S&P 500’s 5-day advance/decline (A/D) line surged to +1,476 as of Friday which ranked as the 7th highest reading dating all the way back to 1990. The chart below shows historical readings in the 5-day A/D line, and the reason it only goes back to 2008 is that before that there were no readings that ever exceeded +1,400. That’s due in at least part to the fact that around that time is when the popularity of ETFs really started to explode creating what has become the current all-or-nothing nature of the market.
The chart below shows the performance of the S&P 500 going back to 2008 on a log scale, and the red dots show every other time that the 5-day A/D line reached +1,400 or higher. As shown, these types of readings occurred at all different phases of the market cycle. While the late 2021 occurrence right near the market top sticks out like a big pimple, other occurrences don’t look nearly as ominous.
Sign up for a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to continue reading more of today’s macro analysis.
The Closer – Credit Spreads, SLOOS, Positioning – 11/6/23
Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.
Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with an update on credit spreads (page 1) followed by a rundown of the data from the latest Senior Loan Officer Outlook Survey (pages 2 and 3). After a preview of this week’s Treasury auctions (page 4) we finish with a look into the latest Commitments of Traders report (pages 5 – 8).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Daily Sector Snapshot — 11/6/23
FAANG+ Flatline
Earlier on X/Twitter, we highlighted the changing dynamics among the charts of the mega caps with Microsoft (MSFT) pressing towards a new all-time high, leaving the likes of Apple (AAPL) in the dust. Looking more broadly at the mega caps, below we show the relative strength of the mega caps proxied by the NYSE FAANG+ Index versus the S&P 500 over the past five years. As shown, the early days of the pandemic were a boon for these mega caps, however, that faded from late 2020 through about a year ago. While mega caps have outperformed again this year—and as a result have been the stocks to thank for the bulk of the S&P 500’s gains year to date—the past few months have seen that relative strength wane with the line fairly flat since the late spring.
Below, we show the how the mega-caps individually have been trading relative to the FAANG+ index. Similar to what we noted in our aforementioned post, Apple (AAPL) has been underperforming with a downtrend in its relative strength line throughout the past year. Meanwhile, Microsoft (MSFT) has seen its relative strength rip higher.
As for the other FAANG+ stocks, there has not been the same sort of dramatic moves of late. That said, Amazon’s (AMZN) relative strength has been consistently declining for a multiyear span now. Meta Platforms (META) would have been in a similar boat, but its relative strength turned around and began trending higher over the past year. Similarly, two semiconductor giants, NVIDIA (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) have had long-term rising relative strength lines with a dramatic acceleration in NVDA over the past year. Finally, we would note that Tesla (TSLA), which once boasted the highest degree of outperformance of the FAANG+ stocks, has recently seen its relative strength line move sideways in a choppy manner.
