Chart of the Day: Financial Tightening Easy Come, Easy Go
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 12/27/23 – Overbought Everywhere
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Chance favours the prepared mind.” – Louis Pasteur
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
While the US was open for trading yesterday, most international markets are only reopening from the Christmas holiday today, and the overall tone has been positive as several major Asian markets were up 1% or more overnight. The tone in Europe is also positive, although it has been more subdued. Here in the US equity futures are about as close to unchanged as possible. Treasury yields are lower across the curve and around the world while crude oil is lower and gold and copper are trading higher.
It’s been a great rally for US stocks over the last two months, and more recently over the last week, stocks around the world have been performing just as good if not better than here. While the S&P 500 tracking ETF is up 0.76% over the last week, all but two of the eighteen regional ETFs we track in our Trend Analyzer have performed even better, and more than half of them are further extended relative to the 50-day moving average (DMA) than SPY which is 6.83% above that level. As shown in the image below, all of the 18 ETFs are also uniformly situated relative to their trading range at ‘Overbought’ levels (1+ standard deviation above their 50-DMAs). It’s hard to get more uniform than that!

Regarding each ETF, most of the regional ETFs are also trading right at 52-week highs (charts with green borders) while just four are shy of their one-year highs. It’s been somewhat of a can’t lose environment for equity investors over the last couple of months, and while it won’t last forever, enjoy it while it lasts.
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Bespoke Stock Scores — 12/26/23
The Closer – Holiday Hush, 5 Fed, Positioning Shifts – 12/26/23
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start out tonight with a look at seasonal performance and volumes at year end (page 1) as well as the Russell 2,000’s impressive run (page 2). We then update our Five Fed Manufacturing Composite (page 3) before recapping today’s solid 2 year note auction (page 4). We finish with a rundown of the latest positioning data (pages 5 – 8).
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 12/26/23
Chart of the Day – Eight is Great
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 12/26/23 – One Extreme to the Other
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“This century hasn’t got the lock on insanity.” – William Peter Blatty, The Exorcist
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
We hope you all had a great holiday weekend, and for those who are back to work, it’s going to be a quiet day in the markets as much of Asia, all of Europe, and Canada are closed in observance of Boxing Day. Futures have a modestly positive bias, and crude oil is trading up close to 2% in the session.
Investors in just about every asset class outside of Energy have had a great end to the year, and the rally in US Treasuries has been among the most impressive. At the long end of the Treasury curve, the iShares 20-Year Treasury ETF (TLT) has rallied over 15% from its lows since late October. In the twenty-year history of the ETF, there have been only five other periods where the ETF rallied as much or more in 50 trading days. The three most notable were during the Financial Crisis, in 2011 right around the time of the US debt downgrade by S&P, and then again in March 2020 at the time of COVID. Admittedly, each of those rallies was significantly larger, but what makes the current period notable is that it followed what had been a historically large 15% decline in a 50-trading day span that ended in early October. Never in the ETF’s history has it shifted so fast from one extreme to the other.

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Bespoke’s Brunch Reads – 12/24/23
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of the favorite things we read over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
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On This Day in History:
A Christmas Truce: On Christmas Eve, 1914, amid World War I, Christmas carols echoed across battlefields as soldiers along the Western Front initiated a spontaneous act of humanity and unofficial ceasefire, crossing trenches to meet their adversaries in no man’s land. This extraordinary occurrence saw troops engaged in seasonal greetings, sharing rations, and participating in soccer matches together. This truce, though brief, demonstrated a unique human capacity for empathy and camaraderie amid war.
In 2005, a film called Joyeux Noël, which translates to “Merry Christmas,” vividly brought to life this story of the Christmas Truce. It delves into the experiences of French, German, and Scottish soldiers who, amidst the horrors of war, found a common ground in the spirit of Christmas.

Electric Vehicles
As Tesla’s fight with Sweden escalates, the EV firm is hiring a ‘hands-on’ Nordic expert with a knack for problem-solving (MSN)
Sympathy strikes across Nordic countries in reaction to Swedish Tesla employees’ demands for collective bargaining have forced the automaker to hire an expert in the region to help tame the escalating labor disputes. Tesla’s refusal to engage in standard collective bargaining practices in Sweden has led to operational disruptions, including halted services and deliveries. Tesla hopes its new hire can get the issues settled, especially with Elon Musk so outspoken about his opposition to unions. [Link]
E-scooter company Bird files for bankruptcy (Electrek)
Global e-scooter company Bird has filed for bankruptcy in the US but will continue its operations in Canada and Europe. Bird’s US operations have faced challenges, including a significant drop in its stock value and delisting from the NYSE. Bird has also faced tough competition and regulatory challenges in the e-scooter market. The industry overall is experiencing mixed fortunes, with some companies facing layoffs and others, like Lime, reporting growth. [Link]
U.S. Battery Production Is Going … Great, Actually? (Heatmap News)
The EPA’s new emissions stardards, set for 2032, imply that 67% of new vehicles will need to be electric by 2032, posing a challenge due to the Inflation Reduction Act’s restrictions on EV components from certain countries. Despite this, a report from the Environmental Defense Fund shows promising growth in US battery production, exceeding expected demand by 2028. This increase in domestic production could help automakers meet the standards and allow consumers to benefit from EV tax credits. [Link]
Economic Trends
AI gives birth to AI: Scientists say machine intelligence now capable of replicating without humans (Fox News)
Large AI models, like those behind ChatGPT, can now autonomously create smaller, specialized AI systems. To create self-evolving AI, large models are building smaller ones, without the help of humans. What researchers believe is that this process will help all models collaborate and build out an intelligence ecosystem, basically all autonomously. Right now, these AI-built models are good for practical tasks that humans can use in everyday life. Even your dishwasher and coffee maker could use AI! [Link]
Microsoft Agrees to Remain Neutral in Union Campaigns (NYT)
Microsoft declared its neutrality towards unionization efforts in the US, a group that includes about 100,000 workers. This decision follows a neutrality agreement with the Communications Workers of America, under which Microsoft’s video game workers unionized without a formal election. Now union leaders and Microsoft will discuss issues stemming from AI. AI experts from Microsoft will inform union leaders about AI developments at the company and attempt to mitigate concerns like job displacement as a result of the quickly evolving technology. [Link]
Rite Aid faces 5-year facial recognition ban after FTC accuses it of “reckless” use of AI tech (Axios)
With retail crime on the rise and of much discussion in the media lately, facial recognition has become popular to identify those they believe to be shoplifting and causing other issues in stores. An FTC complaint suggests that Rite Aid failed to use the technology responsibly, claiming that it “disproportionally impacted people of color.” Many of the alerted results of the facial recognition came back as false positives. Rite Aid says that it disagrees with the claims and only uses the technology in a limited capacity. [Link]
The City That’s Trying to Replace Politicians With Computers (It’s Working) (WSJ)
In Porto Alegre, Brazil, Councilman Ramiro Rosário pioneered the use of ChatGPT to draft a law, marking a significant shift in legislative processes. This law, aimed at preventing the local water company from charging for stolen water meters, was passed unanimously and was the country’s first to be entirely written by AI. This could be the start of a new direction in governance, suggesting increased efficiency and cost-effectiveness in public administration, but it also raises questions about ethical practices and the future role of human legislators in policymaking. There was certainly some pushback against Rosário when others found out he didn’t write any of it. [Link]
Christmas
Just How Rich Were the McCallisters in ‘Home Alone’? (NYT)
Home Alone, is a Christmas classic. The question that has been stirring on social media as the holiday season rolls around is, what exactly did Mr. McCallister and Mr. McCallister do to afford all that they had? The film takes place in a real house in Winnetka, Illinois, one of the most expensive neighborhoods in the country. The movie suggests Kevin’s mom is a fashion designer and his dad a businessman. The family’s wealth is further implied by their ability to accommodate a large number of people and the luxurious lifestyle they lead, despite not paying for their trip to Paris, which was funded by Uncle Rob. [Link]
The Ancient Origins of the Christmas Wreath (WSJ)
Wreaths are a Christmas Staple. The tradition dates back to ancient cultures, including the Egyptians, Greeks, and Romans, and served various symbolic purposes. The Vikings introduced the Yuletide wreath as part of their winter solstice celebrations, which later evolved into the Christian Advent wreath. The practice of decorating doors with wreaths gained popularity in America in the 20th century, largely influenced by Louise B. Fisher’s creative designs at Colonial Williamsburg, leading to the widespread custom of decorating front doors with festive wreaths during the holiday season. [Link]
Billionaire Endeavors
Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk say human population not nearly big enough: ‘If we had a trillion humans, we would have at any given time a thousand Mozarts’ (Yahoo Finance)
Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk, two prominent billionaires, share a vision for expanding human presence in space. Bezos, with Blue Origin, envisions a future with a trillion humans living across the solar system, facilitated by robust space infrastructure. Musk, leading SpaceX, emphasizes the need for humanity to become a multi-planet species, focusing on Mars colonization. Both stress the importance of population growth and space exploration for the future of civilization. [Link]
Immigration
A run-down motel became an accidental sanctuary for hundreds of migrants. In them, its owner found renewed purpose and meaning. (Denverite)
Yong Cha Prince planned to close her motel in Denver but found a new purpose when she sheltered Venezuelan migrants in need. The Western Motor Inn became a home for about 300 people seeking better lives in the US. It has made Prince happy to be able to care for those living at the motel, but the future of the community is uncertain due to the motel’s deteriorating condition and financial challenges. [Link]
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Have a great weekend!
The Bespoke Report – 2024 Annual Outlook
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