Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 2/27/24 – Equities Modestly Higher, Bitcoin Surges (Again)
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“No story has power, nor will it last, unless we feel in ourselves that it is true” – John Steinbeck
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It’s looking like a modestly positive open for stocks to kick off the day with the Nasdaq leading the way higher, but the real star of the morning has been Bitcoin where prices are up another 4%+ and briefly topped $57,000. The tone in Asia was also positive after some weakness to kick off the week. In China, 30-year yields dropped to a record low of 2.52% as economic concerns weigh on the country even as the ‘national team’ has been buying up stocks. The tone in Europe has been more mixed but still mostly positive.
Here in the US, Durable Goods Orders will be released at 8:30, and then at 10 AM we’ll get the release of the Richmond Fed and Consumer Confidence reports.
Last Thursday, 2/22, was the largest one-day gain for the S&P 500 in over a year, and while breadth was strong, the S&P 500’s advance-decline (A/D) line finished the day at +399 just shy of the threshold for an all-or-nothing day (days where S&P 500’s daily net A/D reading is at or above +400 or at or below -400) . Through yesterday’s close, 38 trading days into the year, the S&P 500 has yet to have an all-or-nothing day this year. If it doesn’t have one today it will go down as the latest into a year that the S&P 500 has gone without an all-or-nothing day since 2017 and the third longest since 2008 when ETF volume exploded in the post-financial crisis period.
While it is uncommon for the S&P 500 to go this long into a year without an all-or-nothing day, the current streak of 43 trading days without one hasn’t necessarily been strong relative to history. As recently as last August there was a longer streak of 49 trading days, and before that, there were multiple streaks that were longer including a 115-trading day streak that ended in February 2018 with the “Volmageddon” episode.
For a closer look at how the market performed following prior moves like we saw yesterday, read today’s full Morning Lineup with a two-week Bespoke Premium trial.
Beauty Stock ELF Beats the King of AI
NVIDIA (NVDA) is up nearly 2,000% over the last five years, but would you believe that there’s another stock — a non-AI stock — that’s up even more?
As shown below, while NVDA is up 1,937% since February 2019, cosmetics-maker e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) has that number beat with an even bigger gain of 2,639%!
While the two are in completely different industries, one thing they have in common is their penchant for reporting earnings triple plays. As a reminder, an earnings triple play occurs when a stock reports earnings and 1) beats analyst EPS estimates, 2) beats analyst sales estimates, and 3) raises forward guidance.
As shown in the snapshot from our interactive Earnings Explorer below, NVIDIA (NVDA) has now reported five earnings triple plays in a row.
e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) has that topped, though, with seven triple plays in a row dating back to August 2022!
If you’re interested in reading about more stocks that have recently reported earnings triple plays, start a Bespoke Institutional (All Access) trial today and access our latest Triple Play Report (thumbnail preview below).
The Closer – Big Issuance, New Home Sales, Treasury Auctions, CoT – 2/26/24
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we discuss a record February for investment grade corporate bond issuance (page 1), a few earnings results after the bell (page 1), some data on manufacturing sentiment (page 1), a detailed breakdown of new home sales data for January (pages 2 & 3), auction recaps for the 2y and 5y UST sales today as well as a preview of the 7y note sale later this week (page 4), and a summary of commitment of traders positioning data from futures markets (pages 5-8).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Daily Sector Snapshot — 2/26/24
Chart of the Day: Correlations
Crypto Digging Out
After some weakness overnight, prices in the crypto space have seen a significant turnaround today. Bitcoin, for example, has rallied nearly 5% from its lows earlier in the session and is back to new 52-week highs. When the Bitcoin ETFs were first launched back on January 11th, prices immediately dropped by more than 20% in what looked like another sell-the-news event surrounding a Bitcoin milestone. As shown in the chart, though, in just the last month alone, the largest cryptocurrency has rallied more than 25%.
The rally in Bitcoin has also helped to dig it out of the hole it has been in for more than two years. After falling just short of $68,000 per coin in November 2021, bitcoin declined by more than 75%, but after more than tripling in less than 15 months, it is now just a little bit more than 20% from its prior all-time high. Will 2024 be the year?
Even more impressive than the recent rally in Bitcoin has been Ethereum’s run. Over the last month alone, the second-largest crypto has rallied 39%. That’s more than Nvidia (NVDA)! Despite the monster rally over the last month, though, Ethereum remains 35% below its November 2021 high of $4,800.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 2/26/24 – Busy Data Week
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“I Walk the Line” – Johnny Cash
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After a short and extremely limited week of economic data last week, I hope you’re ready for a full week of trading and a busy week of data. Kicking off the week, futures have been little changed as traders await the release of New Home Sales and the Dallas Fed report. Overnight, most Asian equity indices were lower to kick off the week even as Japan bucked the trend to trade at another record high. Europe has also been sluggish in early trading, but overall, the pace of news has been quiet.
Taking a long-term look at the chart of the S&P 500, we’ve essentially seen a textbook breakout. After trading at new highs in late 2023, the S&P 500 successfully tested its breakout level early this year and hasn’t given investors much of an opportunity to get in ever since.
Looking more closely at a shorter-term chart of the S&P 500, it has been “walking the line” of a steep uptrend of higher highs since mid-November, and while the steepness of the trend hasn’t accelerated it has retained its steady ascent.
For a closer look at how the market performed following prior moves like we saw yesterday, read today’s full Morning Lineup with a two-week Bespoke Premium trial.
Bespoke’s Brunch Reads – 2/25/24
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of the favorite things we read over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
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On This Day in History:
Dollar Debut: On February 25th, 1862, amidst the turmoil of the Civil War, Congress initiated a monumental shift in the American financial landscape by establishing the US Bureau of Engraving and Printing. Before this pivotal change, the American economy was fragmented by the lack of a uniform currency, complicating trade and commerce across state lines. The establishment of the Bureau streamlined the production of a standardized national currency, laying the foundation for a more unified and efficient economic system. Today, the Bureau’s ongoing operations underpin the very fabric of the US economy, ensuring the integrity and reliability of the American dollar, which serves as a cornerstone of the global financial system.

Investing & Savings
These Teenagers Know More About Investing Than You Do (WSJ)
Teens, with the help of their parents, are venturing into the world of investing, owning shares in major companies like Tesla, Apple, and Amazon.com. The number of custodial accounts at Schwab is up from 120,000 in 2019 to more than 300,000 in 2023. It’s part of a trend that originated during the pandemic when new investors began trading to capitalize on the market’s downturn. Hot tech stocks that today’s youth know well have also brought attention to the benefits of investing. Many are even learning about investing through the Internet’s influencers on platforms like YouTube. [Link]
You can put a price tag on the value of a personal finance education: $100,000 (CNBC)
A personal finance class in high school can yield a lifetime benefit of approximately $100,000 per student by teaching crucial financial management skills, such as avoiding high-interest debt and improving credit scores. This knowledge not only benefits the students but also has a positive ripple effect on families and communities. Many school districts are even requiring the classes as research links financial literacy to significant improvements in financial well-being, including higher savings rates, better credit scores, and lower delinquency rates. [Link]
AI & Technology
Generative AI’s environmental costs are soaring — and mostly secret (Nature)
With all the hype behind AI, it doesn’t sound like anyone wants to address the elephant in the room. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has acknowledged the AI industry’s looming energy crisis, noting the substantial power consumption expected from future generative AI systems. Without a significant energy breakthrough, AI’s energy demands could outpace current systems. The environmental impact of AI extends beyond energy to include significant water use for cooling data centers, as seen with OpenAI’s GPT-4 and other large models from tech giants. There’s tons of work to be done, especially coming from Altman who has proposed massive investment to fund new AI projects. [Link]
AI Will Transform the Global Economy. Let’s Make Sure It Benefits Humanity. (IMF)
The advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) presents a dual-edged sword: it has the potential to significantly enhance productivity and economic growth globally but also risks replacing jobs and exacerbating inequality. According to IMF research, about 40% of global employment could be affected by AI. Within countries, AI could increase income disparities, benefiting those who can utilize AI effectively while disadvantaging others. The IMF has developed an AI Preparedness Index to help countries assess their readiness for AI adoption, highlighting the need for targeted investments in digital infrastructure, education, and regulatory frameworks to ensure AI benefits are broadly shared. [Link]
Foreign Affairs
How U.S. Pressure Helped Save Brazil’s Democracy (Foreign Policy)
Brazil’s federal police recently raided former President Jair Bolsonaro and his allies for allegedly plotting a coup after his 2022 election loss. Amidst these developments, US President Joe Biden’s targeted pressure on key Brazilian officials played a role in upholding Brazil’s democracy, ensuring a peaceful power transition. Foreign policy has had much of the spotlight in the US during this election year, and this was a win for the US in an area that has otherwise faced heavy criticism. [Link]
Megaprojects in the Desert Sap Saudi Arabia’s Cash (WSJ)
Saudi Arabia’s ambitious Vision 2030 projects, including massive property developments, are driving the kingdom to increase its borrowing and consider another sale of Saudi Aramco stock due to dwindling cash reserves in its sovereign wealth fund. These costly initiatives, aimed at diversifying the economy away from oil, are putting financial pressure on the country amid moderate oil prices and high-interest rates. [Link]
Housing
How the housing industry is working to stop energy efficient homes (Washington Post)
North Carolina developer Ron Jackson argues that tightening energy efficiency building codes would make housing unaffordable for many Americans by significantly increasing construction costs. The regulations are claimed to inflate the upfront costs of new homes. However, critics and some green builders contest these claims, pointing out that the proposed energy efficiency measures would increase costs by far less than the industry states and would pay off over the long-term through lower utility bills. [Link]
End of an Era
Death, Lonely Death (Crooked Timber)
Launched in 1977, Voyager 1’s journey through the Solar System is nearing its end as it faces system failures billions of miles from Earth. After surpassing its original three-year mission by decades and making groundbreaking discoveries including the first close-up photos of Jupiter’s moons and entering interstellar space in 2012, the spacecraft began sending back unintelligible data in December 2023, indicating possible software or hardware issues which efforts to resolve haven’t worked. [Link]
Vice Media stops publishing on website and cuts hundreds of jobs (BBC News)
A lot is going on in digital media these days, especially with the rise of AI and more advanced technology. Vice Media filed for bankruptcy in the US in May and is now laying off hundreds. Vice will collaborate with established media firms for content distribution, citing the current model as cost-ineffective. It marks the end of an era in many ways, as Vice had several notable moments including documenting terror groups in Syria and Dennis Rodman’s relationship with North Korea, to name a couple of examples. [Link]
Strawberries
How Driscoll’s Reinvented the Strawberry (The New Yorker)
Driscoll’s, which holds a major stake in the US berry market, is exploring the introduction of unique strawberry varieties to appeal to new consumer segments, such as millennials who are more open to trying unconventional foods. Facing competition from the University of California Davis’s breeding program, Driscoll’s aims to maintain its market dominance by developing proprietary berries and packaging, despite challenges such as labor shortages and diseases. [Link]
Sports
What Happened to Baseball Jerseys? (The Atlantic)
They’re thin, poor fitting, the colors are off, the spacing is wrong, and they look downright fake. Those are some of the concerns with the MLB’s new Nike uniforms for the upcoming season. If you haven’t heard or seen the news and memes online, the new jerseys have become very unpopular, very quickly. Not only do players and fans disapprove, but they’re expensive for fans who would like to purchase them for casual wear. Unfortunately, some of the measures to enhance the performance of the gear, as well as cut costs, have weighed on the quality of the product. [Link]
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Have a great weekend!
The Bespoke Report — 2/23/24 — NVDA Pops; Dimon Sells
To read our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. In this week’s report, we dive into the sustainability of the current AI hype cycle, look at Jamie Dimon’s recent JPM stock sales, highlight new all-time highs across the globe, and provide a full rundown of the just-completed earnings season.














