B.I.G. Tips – Fed Day: Put on Hold
Chart of the Day: Rocks Beat Stocks
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 1/27/26 – Sick Health Care Stocks
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“We’re all mad here.” – Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Stocks are poised to build on yesterday’s rally with S&P 500 futures up 0.25% while the Nasdaq gains 0.60%. Treasury yields are slightly higher as the 10-year yield sits just under 4.23% while the dollar is weaker. Crude oil is little changed at $60 per barrel, while natural gas is giving back some of the massive gains of last week with a drop of over 6%. Precious metals are also lower after their surges to start the week, and Bitcoin is slightly higher.
On the data front, we’ll get Case Shiller numbers at 9 AM, and then the Richmond Fed and Consumer Confidence at 10 AM. After those reports, all eyes will shift to tomorrow’s FOMC announcement, although there’s already widespread agreement that rates will be left unchanged, and the upcoming mega cap earnings.
Following last night’s announcement that the U.S. government proposed a much lower-than-expected payment increase of just 0.09% for Medicare Advantage plans in 2027, coupled with a tepid revenue outlook for the year ahead, shares of UnitedHealth Group (UNH) and many of its peer stocks are down sharply in pre-market trading. For just UNH alone, its impact on the Dow Jones Industrials will be a decline of 350 points, so without that, the Dow would be higher.
Looking at a one-year chart of UNH shows that, based on where the stock is trading in the pre-market, it is on track to test support at the low end of its current six-month range, and a break of that level would put the lows from the summer back into play.
Going back to 1990, today’s downside gap will be the 12th time that UNH has gapped down more than 10%, and the frequency of those downside moves has really increased in pace over the last year. From late 2008 through the end of 2024, there was only one occurrence (during Covid on 3/16/20), but today’s decline will be the fifth in the last year alone!
The scatter chart below compares UNH’s daily opening gaps with its intraday performance from the open to close. The shaded area highlights each time the stock gapped down more than 10%, and following most of those opening declines, dip buyers weren’t quick to step in during the trading day, and in many cases, the stock added significantly to those opening declines.
Trivia Time. We wanted to close today with a little bit of trivia, and this one comes partially from Yahoo! Sports. If Drake Maye wins the Super Bowl this year, the University of North Carolina would be just the sixth school to produce a U.S. president and a Super Bowl-winning QB. What were the other five?
And as a bonus question, 36 different head coaches have won a Super Bowl title. What college/university has produced the most winning head coaches? Check back tomorrow for an answer, or feel free to respond with your guess. No cheating!
Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Intel (INTC)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Intel’s (INTC) Q4 2025 earnings call.
Intel (INTC) is a semiconductor leader transitioning into a dual-threat design and foundry company. It produces essential microprocessors for PCs and data centers, alongside custom ASICs and advanced packaging solutions. Intel is the only firm developing and manufacturing leading-edge nodes on US soil, serving massive tech ecosystems and government defense programs. INTC beat earnings expectations, but is struggling to meet a massive surge in AI-driven demand. Management is pivoting capacity away from low-end PCs to prioritize high-margin Xeon server chips, causing a supply trough in early 2026. Despite $13.7 billion in revenue, depleted inventory buffers mean the company is currently “hand-to-mouth” on wafer supply. Investors are focused on the successful ramp of the 18A process and the 14A roadmap, which has already garnered industry-standard PDK status. Other highlights included a $5 billion investment from NVIDIA and a custom ASIC business that hit a $1 billion annual run rate, signaling Intel’s growing role in the specialized AI hardware market. The stock got decimated on 1/23, down 17% on the day…
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The Closer – Technicals, 5 Fed, Positioning – 1/26/26
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start out with a look at the S&P 500’s technical outlook in addition to some commentary regarding Medicare and private credit (page 1). We then pivot into the latest earnings (page 2) followed by an update of our Five Fed Manufacturing Composite (page 3). We also review durable goods data (page 4) before closing out with a rundown of the latest moves in positioning data (pages 5 and 6).
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 1/26/26
Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Intuitive Surgical’s (ISRG) Q4 2025 earnings call.
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) is the global pioneer of robotic-assisted surgery, primarily known for its da Vinci surgical systems. The company manufactures advanced robotic platforms, 3D high-definition imaging systems, and proprietary instruments that allow surgeons to perform complex procedures through tiny incisions. By serving hospitals and ambulatory surgery centers (ASCs), Intuitive provides insight into the modernization of healthcare. Intuitive reported revenue climbing 19% to $2.87 billion and annual procedures growing 18%. The call centered on the transition to the da Vinci 5, which now represents over 50% of new placements. While international growth was strong at 23%, pricing intensity and local competition in China remain key headwinds. Notably, ISRG just secured FDA clearance for cardiac procedures on the da Vinci 5, opening a new vertical. However, 2026 guidance was cautious (13–15% growth) due to potential US Medicaid/ACA subsidy changes and a 120-basis-point tariff headwind. ISRG beat EPS and revenue estimates but finished trading on 1/23 slightly in the negative…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for ISRG by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Capital One (COF)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Capital One’s (COF) Q4 2025 earnings call.
Capital One (COF) is now the largest US credit card issuer by balances following its $35 billion acquisition of Discover in 2025. It owns one of the world’s few global payment networks, positioning it to challenge the Visa/Mastercard duopoly. The company made a surprise $5.15 billion acquisition of Brex, an AI-native B2B payments platform, accelerating its push into corporate liability and national small business banking. Financially, the results were mixed. Adjusted EPS of $3.86 missed estimates, pressured by a $4.1 billion provision for credit losses and a 41% spike in marketing ($1.9 billion). Management noted that while charge-offs rose to 4.93%, credit is settling out near pre-pandemic levels. CEO Rich Fairbank warned that proposed 10% interest rate caps would “immediately slash credit lines,” potentially triggering a recession. With the earnings miss, COF shares fell 7.9% on 1/23…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for COF by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Chart of the Day: Growth vs. Value
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 1/26/26 – Digging Out
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” – Wayne Gretzky
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
As much of the country digs and/or scrapes out from the snow and ice over the weekend, it’s a very lackluster morning for US equity futures. The S&P 500 looks to open 6 bps lower, while the Nasdaq is down slightly more at 19 bps. It’s worth noting, though, that both indices are well off their overnight lows. Treasury yields have a downward bias, with the 10-year yield trading down to 4.22%. Crude oil is slightly lower at just under $61 per barrel, but natural gas is surging more than 10% as it has nearly doubled in price over the last ten days as the US continues to fall into the grip of a severe cold snap. Everything is hot in the metals space, though, as gold now trades above $5,000 per ounce, while silver rallies 8% and platinum gains another 4%. Crypto continues to sit this rally out, though. While it’s higher this morning, those gains follow weakness over the weekend.
Although the Hang Seng managed a slight gain, most other Asian benchmarks were lower to start the week, although Australia and India were closed for a holiday. The Nikkei declined 1.8%, and even South Korea declined 0.8%. The declines in Japanese stocks came as the Yen followed through from Friday’s rally and rallied another 1% on speculation of a possible intervention on the horizon to halt the long-term slide in the currency (more on that below). Chinese stocks were only down fractionally, but there were some reports of possible disagreements between President Xi and one of his top generals, resulting in the removal of the general and other military members.
There’s not a lot going on in European markets as the STOXX 600 is basically unchanged, but most major individual indices are slightly higher.
On the US calendar, it’s a light day with Durable Goods at 8:30, and there’s no Fedspeak as the Federal Reserve is in its blackout period ahead of Wednesday’s meeting.
The rally in the yen on Friday took the dollar cross below its 50-day moving average for the first time since early October, and today’s rally has extended those gains to take the currency to its best levels versus the dollar since early November.
From a longer-term perspective, the rally in the yen has occurred at what is turning into a significant support/resistance level. In more recent history, levels around 160 have acted as support for the yen, and that level also coincides with a peak in the cross (low in the yen) from early 1990. And if you want to get creative, you could even make out what looks like an inverse head and shoulders.
We’ve seen a lot of huge moves in commodities over the last several months, and natural gas has started to get into the act over the last two weeks. Ten calendar days ago, on 1/16, natural gas closed at 3.10 MMBtu. This morning, prices are nearly twice as high, and earlier in the morning, they were double the level of the 1/16 close! Looking at the chart of natural gas and its history in terms of how the commodity has performed following prior short-term spikes, buying natural gas today feels a lot like skating to where the puck is rather than where it’s going. And happy 65th birthday to Wayne Gretzky!
