Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 8/13/24 – PPI Lower Than Expected
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“What frightens us today is exactly the same sort of thing that frightened us yesterday. It’s just a different wolf.” – Alfred Hitchcock
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Futures were higher coming into the July PPI report and got a further boost after a lower-than-expected PPI report. S&P 500 futures are up over half a percent, and the Nasdaq is indicated to open up over 1%.
The rally in US stocks followed what was a very positive night in Asia and specifically Japan. After Japanese stocks experienced one of the worst single-day declines in history last Monday, the TOPIX has come roaring back over the last week with a gain of 14.7% for its best five-day gain since November 2008 and the fourth best on record (it was closed on Monday). Despite that monster gain, the TOPIX is barely up over the last five trading days (red dot in the chart below).
Zooming in just on periods when the TOPIX rallied more than 10% in a five trading day period, its performance over the last six trading days ranks as the worst on record.
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The Closer – Churn, Stability, Consumer Expectations – 8/12/24
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start out with a look at today’s performance under the hood and the federal government budget data (pages 1 and 2). We then recap today’s consumer expectation data from the New York Fed (pages 3 and 4) before rotating over to our weekly recap of positioning (pages 5 – 8).
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 8/12/24
Chart of the Day: Dividend Delight
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 8/12/24 – A 180-Degree Turn
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“The distance between insanity and genius is measured only by success” – Ian Fleming
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It’s a quiet morning in the markets which is a complete 180-degree turn from last week at this time. Futures are modestly higher, but we have a busy week of economic data ahead and the unofficial end to earnings season when Wal-Mart (WMT) reports on Thursday morning.
It was a whipsaw week for US equities, but you wouldn’t have known if from the snapshot in our Trend Analyzer as no sector was up or down more than 1.7%. There’s a good degree of disparity at the sector level though. While mostly defensive sectors like Health Care, Utilities, Real Estate, and Consumer Staples all finished the week at overbought levels, Consumer Discretionary, Technology, Energy, and Materials all finished the week below their 50-day moving averages.
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Brunch Reads – 8/11/24
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of the favorite things we read over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
The Rock: On August 11th, 1934, Alcatraz Island off of San Francisco Bay, known as “The Rock,” officially opened as a federal prison. It was designed to house the most dangerous criminals of the era, including Al Capone and George “Machine Gun” Kelly. Despite its isolated location, a total of 14 escape attempts were made by 36 prisoners during Alcatraz’s 29 years of operation. Most were caught, shot, or drowned in the cold, treacherous waters. The most famous and intriguing escape attempt occurred on the night of June 11th, 1962, when Frank Morris and brothers John and Clarence Anglin successfully broke out of their cells and vanished into the bay. They were never found, but the story was immortalized in the 1979 film Escape from Alcatraz, starring Clint Eastwood. Today, Alcatraz is no longer an active prison but operates as a popular tourist destination managed by the National Park Service. Visitors can explore the eerie remnants of the prison and hear stories of its infamous inmates.
What Happens When Ozempic Takes Over Your Town (Bloomberg)
In Bowling Green, Kentucky, Ozempic and similar weight-loss drugs have become so widespread that the city has earned the nickname “Ozempictown, USA.” Once associated with celebrities, these drugs are now a common part of daily life in this middle-class Southern city, where nearly everyone seems to be on, or knows someone on, these medications. Despite their popularity, the drugs have brought mixed results, including side effects and accessibility issues, as demand outpaces supply. [Link]
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The Bespoke Report — 8/9/24
Daily Sector Snapshot — 8/9/24
B.I.G. Tips – AI Ailing
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup — 8/9/24
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“There are three things in the world that deserve no mercy; hypocrisy, fraud, and tyranny.” – Frederick William Robertson
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Since the start of 2022 (when the last bear market began), there have been 26 one-day gains of 2%+, and 23 of those came in 2022 when markets were struggling. Yesterday was just the 2nd 2%+ gain of 2024 and there was only one 2%+ gain in all of 2023. As shown below, the S&P has averaged a small decline of 0.14% on the day after 2%+ up days since 2022 and a bigger drop of -0.39% in the week after 2%+ gains. Over the next month, though, the S&P has averaged a gain of 1.10%.
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