The Closer – SCOTUS, Winners Win, Bear Steepening – 7/1/24
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we kick off with a review of the latest decisions out of the Supreme Court (page 1). We then check in on where the S&P 500 would be without the Magnificent Seven and how the best performers in the first half look for the second half (page 2). Next, we discuss the yield curve’s bear steepening (page 3). After a recap of the latest PMIs (Page 4), we close out with our weekly recap of positioning data (pages 5 – 8).
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 7/1/24
Bespoke Market Calendar — July 2024
Please click the image below to view our July 2024 market calendar. This calendar includes the S&P 500’s historical average percentage change and average intraday chart pattern for each trading day during the upcoming month. It also includes market holidays and options expiration dates plus the dates of key economic indicator releases. Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.
Chart of the Day: Hello July
Bespoke’s Matrix of Economic Indicators – 7/1/24
Our Matrix of Economic Indicators provides a concise summary analysis of the US economy’s momentum. We combine trends across the dozens and dozens of economic indicators in various categories like manufacturing, employment, housing, the consumer, and inflation to provide a directional overview of the economy.
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 7/1/24 – Another Day, Another Week, Another Month…
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Don’t give up at half time. Concentrate on winning the second half.” – Paul Bear Bryant
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It’s a new week, a new month, a new quarter, and a new half, but the market is picking up right where it left off last week as stocks look to kick off the new quarter on a positive note. Along with higher stock prices, treasury yields are also spiking and the 10-year yield is back above 4.4%, but these moves could change significantly with the release of the Manufacturing PMIs at 9:45 and 10: AM. Besides today’s release, the economic calendar will be jam-packed this week (even though it’s just three-and-a-half trading days) with ADP Employment (Wednesday), ISM Services (Wednesday), and Non-Farm Payrolls (Friday) among others.
Stocks finished up the first half with a gain of 15.3% on a total return basis, and the rally since this time last year has been a very respectable 24.6%. That’s nearly twice the historical average and ranks in the 75th percentile relative to all one-year periods since 1928. Over the last two years, which includes almost four months of the prior bear market, the S&P 500 has returned 22% annualized. Five and ten-year returns of 15.0% and 12.9%, respectively, also rank above the historical average, but over the last 20 years, the annualized gain of 10.3% ranks slightly below the 10.9% historical average for all 20-year periods in the S&P 500’s history. No matter how you look at the last ten years, it’s been a great time for equities, but the ten years before that weren’t so good.
That’s the good news. While stocks have performed admirably, bonds have been swirling down the toilet. Over the last year, long-term US Treasuries, as measured by the BofA 10+ Yeat US Treasury Index, have declined 5.1% on a total return basis. Annualized returns over the last two years have been even worse at a decline of 6.1%, and in the previous five years, the annualized decline has still been negative at 4%. Even over the last ten years, returns have been barely positive at just 0.7% annualized. You have to go out twenty years to get meaningfully positive returns, but even here, the gain has been somewhat muted at just 3.9%.
A great way to illustrate the weakness in bonds over the last three-plus years is the chart below. On a year/year (y/y) basis, there has only been one month in the previous forty-one where returns have been positive. Relative to history, this type of consistent weakness for such an extended period has been unprecedented. The only other period where there was any sort of consistent weakness was from October 1979 through October 1981. Back then, there were only three positive y/y readings in 25 months, but the magnitude of the y/y declines was significantly less than in the current period.
Brunch Reads – 6/30/24
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of the favorite things we read over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
A decade later, on November 25, 1915, Einstein presented his general theory of relativity to the Prussian Academy of Sciences, extending his special theory to include gravity as a warping of spacetime by mass and energy. This theory fundamentally changed our understanding of gravitational forces and the structure of the universe.
Sports
Want to face Gerrit Cole — between innings? Inside the controversial new tech that could change at-bats forever (ESPN)
The Los Angeles Angels used the Trajekt Arc, an advanced pitching machine, to prepare for a key moment in their May 28th game against the New York Yankees. Outfielder Willie Calhoun used the machine, which replicates pitchers, to practice against Yankees relievers he had never faced. When called to bat, Calhoun hit a leadoff single, sparking a game-winning rally. Trajekt Arc, now used by 19 MLB teams, mimics pitchers’ windups and pitches based on extensive data. Despite some controversy among pitchers over its in-game use, hitters find it a valuable tool for staying competitive against increasingly challenging pitches. [Link]
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The Bespoke Report – 6/28/24 – Same As It Ever Was
To read our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. Below we show our Asset Class Performance matrix covering major ETFs recent returns. We discuss this and much more in the full newsletter.
First Half 2024 — That’s a Wrap
If you missed Bespoke’s Paul Hickey on CNBC earlier this week, you can view it by clicking here or on the thumbnail image below.
With the first half of 2024 now behind us, below is a snapshot of asset class performance across the financial landscape using US-listed ETFs and other exchange traded products. For each ETF, we provide total returns for the first half (YTD), Q2, and June.
The S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) posted strong returns across all three time frames and enters the second half up more than 15% on the year. Large-cap growth (IVW) was up the most of any ETF in the entire matrix in the first half with a gain of 23.45%. While large-cap growth surged, large-cap value (IVE) was only up 5.6% in the first half, and small-caps (IJR, IWM) were actually flat or down. The small-cap value ETF (IJS) finished June down 4.8% YTD.
Looking at sectors, ten of eleven posted gains in the first half, with Real Estate (XLRE) the only sector ending lower. Outside of the US, things weren’t nearly as positive. Brazil (EWZ), France (EWQ), Hong Kong (EWH), and Mexico (EWW) are down year-to-date, while India (INDA) was the top performing country ETF in our matrix at +14.3%. That wasn’t enough to beat the US, though.
Commodity ETFs were somewhat scattered in Q2 and June, but aside from natural gas (UNG), the rest of the space posted double-digit gains in the first half.
Finally, while Treasury ETFs saw an upside move in June, they still ended the first half mostly in the red with the exception of super-short-term durations.
Below is a look at the 30 best performing Russell 1,000 stocks in the first half of 2024. As shown, NVIDIA (NVDA) tops the list with a 149.5% gain. Three other stocks were up more than 100% in the first half: Vistra (VST), Cava (CAVA), and AppLovin (APP). Other notables on the list of big first-half winners include Robinhood (HOOD), Spotify (SPOT), Wingstop (WING), General Electric (GE), Eli Lilly (LLY), Micron (MU), Crowdstrike (CRWD), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Palantir (PLTR), and Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS).
Let’s see how this list of names does for the remainder of the year…we’ll check back in at year end to see how they performed.
