Fixed Income Weekly — 8/14/24
Searching for ways to better understand the fixed income space or looking for actionable ideas in this asset class? Bespoke’s Fixed Income Weekly provides an update on rates and credit each week. We start off with a fresh piece of analysis driven by what’s in the headlines or driving the market in a given week. We then provide charts of how US Treasury futures and rates are trading, before moving on to a summary of recent fixed-income ETF performance, short-term interest rates including money market funds, and a trade idea. We summarize changes and recent developments for a variety of yield curves (UST, bund, Eurodollar, US breakeven inflation, and Bespoke’s Global Yield Curve) before finishing with a review of recent UST yield curve changes, spread changes for major credit products and international bonds, and 1-year return profiles for a cross-section of the fixed income world.
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Chart of the Day – Refinance Surge
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 8/14/24 – CPI Right on Target
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“Talent is never enough. With few exceptions the best players are the hardest workers.” – Magic Johnson
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
There wasn’t much going on in equity futures this morning as the market awaited the release of the July CPI which came in right on target relative to expectations. Stocks in Asia were mixed with Japan up 0.6% while China was down 0.6%. Yields in China were also lower as the government auctioned off a 20-year bond at a record-low yield. European stocks look more positive with slight gains across the board as GDP came in right in line with forecasts (0.3%) and UK inflation unexpectedly declined.
In financial markets, we almost always emphasize upcoming economic reports and/or Federal Reserve meetings too much. Invariably, the reality of the report rarely lives up to the energy of the anticipation that precedes it. Last month’s CPI report was one of those rare exceptions as market performance practically turned on a dime.
The chart below compares S&P 500 industry group performance on a YTD basis through 7/10 (the close before the June CPI report was released) versus how each group performed since then. Leading up to the report, the S&P 500 had rallied more than 18% on a YTD basis, and since then, it has declined over 3.5%. There has been a clear trend among industry groups where the best performers leading up to the report have been among the worst performers since then while the weakest groups on a YTD report have held up the best since the release.
As an example, the top five performing industry groups on a YTD basis through 7/10 all rank in the bottom ten in terms of performance since then, while three of the five worst performing groups YTD before the June PPI (Consumer Durables, REITS, and Real Estate Mgmt) rank as the top three performing groups since then.
On the upside, only two industry groups rank in the top ten in terms of performance for both periods – Insurance and Telecom Services.
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The Closer – Vol of Vol, AI Earnings, PPI – 8/13/24
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with a look into the latest Fedspeak and market pricing of rates in addition to the volatility in the VIX (page 1). Next, we check in on the earnings of AI stocks (page 2) before diving into the latest PPI data (page 3).
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The Highest Yielding Stocks in the S&P 500
There are currently 21 stocks in the S&P 500 that have dividend yields above 5%, and there are now 61 stocks in the index that have a dividend yield that’s higher than the 3.87% that the 10-Year Treasury Note is currently yielding.
Today we wanted to highlight the two stocks in each S&P 500 sector with the highest dividend yields. Below we highlight the two highest yielders in each sector along with the company’s market cap, its year-to-date total return, distance from its all-time high, and next dividend ex-date (if it’s been announced). Whether or not these dividends are safe is a different story (yes, we’re talking about you…Walgreens), but we hope this is a good starting point for further research!
The sector that stands out the most is Consumer Staples because the two highest yielders in the entire S&P come from this sector. Walgreens Boots (WBA) currently has a dividend yield of 9.8%, while tobacco/nicotine-producer Altria (MO) has a yield of 7.8%. WBA already cut its dividend in half once this year and it still yields nearly 10% because its share price is down 60% year-to-date! Even still, WBA is set to at least make its next $0.25/share quarterly payment after its 8/21 ex-date a week from now. Altria (MO), on the other hand, is yielding 7.8% even though its shares have posted a total return of 30.4% YTD.
The only sector that doesn’t have at least one stock yielding more than the 10-year US Treasury is Technology. As shown in the table, Cisco (CSCO) and IBM are the highest-yielding S&P 500 Tech stocks with yields of just over 3.5%.
In addition to highlighting the two highest-yielding stocks in each S&P 500 sector, below is a look at the two stocks in each sector that are down the most from their all-time share-price highs. On average, these 20 stocks are down 78% from their all-time highs.
Two stocks in the Financial sector that remain a shell of their former selves from before the Financial Crisis are the two that are down the most from all-time highs: AIG and Citigroup (C).
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 8/13/24
Bespoke Stock Scores — 8/13/24
July 2024 Headlines
Chart of the Day – Best of Both Worlds?
Election Sensitivities for Small Business
Among this morning’s economic releases was the NFIB’s Small Business Optimism index. The headline number came in above expectations, rising to 93.7 versus forecasts of an unchanged reading of 91.5. While that would still indicate that small business sentiment remains at the low end of its historical range, it did rise to the highest level in more than two years (February 2022).
Looking under the hood of this month’s report, breadth across categories was solid with half of the inputs to the Optimism Index rising month over month, two falling, and the remaining three going unchanged. A handful of those gainers like Plans to Increase Inventories, Expected Real Sales Higher, and Expectations for the Economy to Improve were notable with top quartile monthly gains. While there were some big month-over-month moves, most indices remain at the low end of historical ranges. Additionally, there are some areas of key weakness. As we noted in today’s Morning Lineup, employment metrics continue to weaken led lower this month by big drops in Compensation and Compensation Plans.
Again, Outlook for General Business Conditions stood out as the category with the largest monthly jump. As shown below, that reading went from a relatively low -25 up to -7. That 18-point jump ranks as the eight largest MoM increase on record with April 2020 being the last time the index rose by as much. Additionally, that leaves the index at the highest level since the last presidential election in November 2020.
It is worth noting that the NFIB data has typically been sensitive to politics (more evidence of this below) with the Outlook for General Business Conditions tending to be stronger during Republican administrations and lower during Democratic administrations. As such, the sharp increase in this index over the past couple of months was concurrent with Republicans gaining favor for winning the upcoming election; a move which has since reversed since mid-July meaning next month’s NFIB release could see this index reverse lower as well.
One other area where political sensitivities have been observed is in the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. Like the business outlook reading, in July this uncertainty index surged to the most elevated level since November 2020. As shown below, that sort of rise is nothing new. With some exceptions, every presidential election year (November to November, denoted by red lines below) has seen this index run higher.
Even though the business outlook has improved markedly, the percentage of firms reporting that it is a good time to expand hasn’t benefited. The percentage reporting now as a good time to expand is low at only 5% and up only marginally month over month. As shown in the second chart below, economic conditions get most of the blame for the negative outlook with the political climate ranking second.
Looking back historically, in the chart below we show those same reasons for expansion outlook for those reporting negative or uncertain outlooks combined. Again, economic conditions are by far the most common response, but politics are elevated and rising significantly as election season continues to heat up.
