Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 8/15/24 – Better Data
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“History is a set of lies agreed upon.” – Napoleon Bonaparte
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Investors came into the day in a positive mood as gains overnight in Asia and a positive morning in Europe flowed through to the pre-market in the US. Crude oil and gold were also up about 1% with WTI trading at a lucky $77.77 per barrel.
One of the biggest catalysts for this morning’s positive tone has been in shares of Wal-Mart (WMT) which is poised to gap up over 7% in reaction to earnings. For perspective, if the gains hold through to the closing bell, it would be the first time since at least 2001 that the stock rallied more than 5% in reaction to back-to-back earnings reports.
A slug of economic data just hit the tape, and nearly all the reports came in better than expected, including Retail Sales which doubled expectations (1.0% vs 0.4%), while initial and continuing claims were better than expected. In response, futures have taken another leg higher as fears of economic weakness have been eased even as a September rate cut remains likely.
Between the monthly Retail Sales report, earnings from Wal-Mart (WMT), and other companies from the sector, it’s been a busy morning for the retail sector. On a non-earnings-related move, shares of Ulta Beauty (ULTA) are surging more than 12% following news after the bell yesterday that Berkshire Hathaway had taken a position of 690K shares worth $266 million in the company as of the end of Q2. To put that in perspective, even after Berkshire cut its stake in Apple (AAPL) by more than half this year, that position is still more than 300 times larger than its current stake in ULTA. Nevertheless, the Buffett seal of approval alone is enough for investors to flock to the stock.
Looking at the performance of ULTA over the last year, Berkshire’s purchase wasn’t the timeliest in the short term. While we have no way of knowing at what point in the quarter the stock was purchased, even after accounting for its pre-market surge, it is trading below where it traded at any point in Q2. From April 1st through June 30th, shares of ULTA traded in a range of $375.31 to $529.67. While it’s unlikely that Berkshire entered the position anywhere near the high end of that range as it only traded there for a couple of days early in the quarter, it’s just as unlikely that Berkshire bottom-ticked it. That’s because the stock doesn’t often trade more than a million shares a day, so a 690K trade would have greatly impacted the stock. The fact that Berkshire remains underwater on the stock doesn’t mean that ULTA won’t end up as a winning stock, but even when it comes to the best investors in the world, timing isn’t always perfect.
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The Closer – Electorate, Back Above the 50-Day, Best of Breed – 8/14/24
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with some commentary on electorate demographics followed by a check in on the technicals of the S&P 500 (page 1). We then review today’s CPI data (page 2) before updating our Best of Breed basket (pages 3 and 4). We close out with a look at the near record petroleum product trade surplus (page 5).
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 8/14/24
Fixed Income Weekly — 8/14/24
Searching for ways to better understand the fixed income space or looking for actionable ideas in this asset class? Bespoke’s Fixed Income Weekly provides an update on rates and credit each week. We start off with a fresh piece of analysis driven by what’s in the headlines or driving the market in a given week. We then provide charts of how US Treasury futures and rates are trading, before moving on to a summary of recent fixed-income ETF performance, short-term interest rates including money market funds, and a trade idea. We summarize changes and recent developments for a variety of yield curves (UST, bund, Eurodollar, US breakeven inflation, and Bespoke’s Global Yield Curve) before finishing with a review of recent UST yield curve changes, spread changes for major credit products and international bonds, and 1-year return profiles for a cross-section of the fixed income world.
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Chart of the Day – Refinance Surge
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 8/14/24 – CPI Right on Target
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Talent is never enough. With few exceptions the best players are the hardest workers.” – Magic Johnson
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
There wasn’t much going on in equity futures this morning as the market awaited the release of the July CPI which came in right on target relative to expectations. Stocks in Asia were mixed with Japan up 0.6% while China was down 0.6%. Yields in China were also lower as the government auctioned off a 20-year bond at a record-low yield. European stocks look more positive with slight gains across the board as GDP came in right in line with forecasts (0.3%) and UK inflation unexpectedly declined.
In financial markets, we almost always emphasize upcoming economic reports and/or Federal Reserve meetings too much. Invariably, the reality of the report rarely lives up to the energy of the anticipation that precedes it. Last month’s CPI report was one of those rare exceptions as market performance practically turned on a dime.
The chart below compares S&P 500 industry group performance on a YTD basis through 7/10 (the close before the June CPI report was released) versus how each group performed since then. Leading up to the report, the S&P 500 had rallied more than 18% on a YTD basis, and since then, it has declined over 3.5%. There has been a clear trend among industry groups where the best performers leading up to the report have been among the worst performers since then while the weakest groups on a YTD report have held up the best since the release.
As an example, the top five performing industry groups on a YTD basis through 7/10 all rank in the bottom ten in terms of performance since then, while three of the five worst performing groups YTD before the June PPI (Consumer Durables, REITS, and Real Estate Mgmt) rank as the top three performing groups since then.
On the upside, only two industry groups rank in the top ten in terms of performance for both periods – Insurance and Telecom Services.
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The Closer – Vol of Vol, AI Earnings, PPI – 8/13/24
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with a look into the latest Fedspeak and market pricing of rates in addition to the volatility in the VIX (page 1). Next, we check in on the earnings of AI stocks (page 2) before diving into the latest PPI data (page 3).
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The Highest Yielding Stocks in the S&P 500
There are currently 21 stocks in the S&P 500 that have dividend yields above 5%, and there are now 61 stocks in the index that have a dividend yield that’s higher than the 3.87% that the 10-Year Treasury Note is currently yielding.
Today we wanted to highlight the two stocks in each S&P 500 sector with the highest dividend yields. Below we highlight the two highest yielders in each sector along with the company’s market cap, its year-to-date total return, distance from its all-time high, and next dividend ex-date (if it’s been announced). Whether or not these dividends are safe is a different story (yes, we’re talking about you…Walgreens), but we hope this is a good starting point for further research!
The sector that stands out the most is Consumer Staples because the two highest yielders in the entire S&P come from this sector. Walgreens Boots (WBA) currently has a dividend yield of 9.8%, while tobacco/nicotine-producer Altria (MO) has a yield of 7.8%. WBA already cut its dividend in half once this year and it still yields nearly 10% because its share price is down 60% year-to-date! Even still, WBA is set to at least make its next $0.25/share quarterly payment after its 8/21 ex-date a week from now. Altria (MO), on the other hand, is yielding 7.8% even though its shares have posted a total return of 30.4% YTD.
The only sector that doesn’t have at least one stock yielding more than the 10-year US Treasury is Technology. As shown in the table, Cisco (CSCO) and IBM are the highest-yielding S&P 500 Tech stocks with yields of just over 3.5%.
In addition to highlighting the two highest-yielding stocks in each S&P 500 sector, below is a look at the two stocks in each sector that are down the most from their all-time share-price highs. On average, these 20 stocks are down 78% from their all-time highs.
Two stocks in the Financial sector that remain a shell of their former selves from before the Financial Crisis are the two that are down the most from all-time highs: AIG and Citigroup (C).
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