Tesla (TSLA) on Top Since Trump’s Election Victory
Earlier we provided a snapshot of asset class performance since Election Day using our key ETF matrix. Diving a little deeper, below is a look at the change in market cap across S&P 1500 sectors since Trump’s victory on 11/5. As shown, the Financials sector has thus far been the biggest beneficiary with a collective increase in market cap of $608.4 billion across all of its stocks. Technology ranks second with an increase of $434.9 billion, followed by Consumer Discretionary at $335 billion. On the flip side, two sectors have seen a decline in market cap since Trump won. Real Estate is down very marginally at $2.3 billion, while Health Care has seen its market cap drop by a much more significant $167.9 billion.
Below is a look at the individual stocks that have seen the biggest jump in market cap since Election Day. Is it any surprise that Elon Musk’s Tesla (TSLA) has seen by far the biggest jump at $283 billion? Behind Tesla is NVIDIA (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL) with respective gains of $160 billion and $77 billion, however, their share prices are up less than 3%. These two names are simply so big that the smallest moves now result in massive swings in market cap. Rounding out the top five are JP Morgan (JPM) with an increase of $66 billion and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) at $58 billion.
In addition to these five big winners, other notables on the list include names like Netflix (NFLX), Walmart (WMT), Disney (DIS), Blackstone (BX), Costco (COST), Charles Schwab (SCHW), and Interactive Brokers (IBKR).
Below is a list of the biggest winners by percentage change since Election Day. The two best performers remain the two private prison stocks — GEO Group (GEO) and CoreCivic (CXW). Other interesting names on the list of biggest post-Election winners include United Fire (UFCS), Grocery Outlet (GO) and Hertz (HTZ).
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Asset Class/Key ETF Performance Since Election Day 2024
We’re just under three weeks past Election Day 2024 and below is an updated look at the performance of various asset classes since then using our key ETF matrix.
While it may feel like the stock market has gone gangbusters since the close on 11/5, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up just over 3%, while the mega-cap Tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is up even less at 2.5%.
Both growth and value ETFs are up similar amounts, while currency ETFs like FXB, FXE, and FXY are all down more than 2% as the dollar has rallied.
Looking at sectors, Financials (XLF) is up the most with a gain of 8.3% followed closely by Energy (XLE) at +8.04%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) ranks as the third best sector since 11/5 with a gain of 7.5%. On the downside, Health Care (XLV) is solidly in the red with a drop of 2.4%, and while it’s not one of the eleven major sectors, the semis ETF (SMH) is also down 1.7%.
It has been quite the bloodbath in international stocks since Trump’s victory on 11/5. Five of the major country ETFs are down more than 6%: China (MCHI), Hong Kong (EWH), France (EWQ), Italy (EWI), and Spain (EWP). Israel (EIS) is one of the few country ETFs that has gained along with Australia (EWA) and Canada (EWC).
We’ve seen some divergence between commodity ETFs since Election Day. The agriculture ETF (DBA) and natural gas (UNG) are both up solidly, but gold (GLD), silver (SLV), and oil (USO) are all in the red.
Bespoke’s Stock Market Camp — 2025 Dates
Bespoke’s Stock Market Camp is back for 2025! Reserve a student’s spot with a $100 deposit today.
If you or any of your friends or colleagues have children, grandchildren, nieces, or nephews, please take note!
Here at Bespoke we’ve been following the stock market 24/7 for more than two decades, so based on the “10,000 hour” rule, we can confidently say that we are market “pros”.
At the same time, traditional education across grades K-12 doesn’t focus on the stock market, investing, and how it all works.
For years, we’ve thought about addressing the “stock market literacy gap” for students across the country. Now, we’ve come up with a plan!
We have two one-week camps currently planned for students during Summer 2025: June 23-27 and July 21-25
Bespoke’s Stock Market Camp runs for five days from Monday-Friday with each live Zoom class lasting roughly 75 minutes. Camp is fun, engaging, and interactive, and by the end of the week, students will have a basic understanding of how the stock market and investing works! If a live class is missed, recordings are available.
We don’t have to tell you how valuable knowing this information at a young age can be! Instead of kids playing video games, scrolling through TikTok, or messing around on Snapchat, we think our five-day Stock Market Camp will pay major dividends down the road!
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 11/22/24 – Eeasing Into the Weekend
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“Of course it’s the same old story. Truth usually is the same old story.” – Margaret Thatcher
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After an eventful month and week, markets are looking to slide into the weekend on a quiet note as US equity futures are little changed on either side of the flatline. Despite a weak batch of flash manufacturing PMI reports from Asia and Europe, global equities are closing off the week on a more positive note. The Nikkei closed 0.7% higher finishing down 0.9% for the week, but in China, both onshore and offshore indices finished down sharply putting them both into the red for the week. European stocks have traded more uniformly positive with the STOXX 6000 trading up 0.5% putting it into the green for the week as the flash PMI manufacturing index slid into contraction territory at 48.1 from 50.0 in October. That weaker-than-expected reading has increased the odds of a December rate cut, pushing the euro to its lowest level in two years at 1.04 versus the dollar.
While the odds of a December rate cut in Europe rise, the odds here in the US have been on the decline. At the start of November, the market was pricing in an 80% chance of a 25 bps cut in December, but as of this morning, the odds have slipped to 60%.
The first rate cut was just over two months ago, so we wanted to see what, if any, change there has been in sector performance before versus after the September cut. The chart below shows the performance ranking of the eleven sector ETFs on a YTD basis through 9/17 (x-axis) versus each one’s performance since then. If there had been no shift in sector performance in the pre-and post-rate cut periods, you would expect to see all the dots on a 45-degree upward-sloping line, but as shown in the chart below, that has hardly been the case.
While several sectors are grouped relatively close to that line, others have seen big shifts. At the lower right side of the chart, Consumer Discretionary, and Energy were two of the worst-performing sectors on a YTD basis leading up to the first rate cut, but they’ve been the two best since then. Normally, you would expect Energy and Consumer Discretionary to move in opposite directions, but that hasn’t been the case this year. At the other extreme, Utilities and Consumer Staples were two of the better-performing sectors on a YTD basis heading into the September cut, but they’ve been laggards ever since then.
Looking at the charts of Consumer Discretionary and Energy, both sectors got a boost from the rate cut in September, but both rallies stalled out in late October before getting turbo-charged after the election, so it hasn’t been just a rate cut story. Energy’s rally is particularly surprising given it was the worst-performing sector during Trump’s first administration.
The Consumer Staples sector had been in a steady uptrend all year right up until September, but the rate cut almost served as a bell for the peak as the longer-term uptrend turned on a dime into a two-month downtrend.
The reversal in the Utilities sector hasn’t been as abrupt as the one in Consumer Staples, but as longer-term yields rose after the first cut, momentum slowed significantly, although the election results earlier this month have provided a boost on expectations for a weaker regulatory environment.
The Closer – Small Cap Rotations, Housing Affordability – 11/21/24
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with a look into the post election moves in small caps (page 1). Next, we review existing home sales (page 2) including a look at affordability (page 3). We then check in on the leading index and our 5 Fed Manufacturing Composite (page 4). We finish with a rundown of today’s 10-year TIPS auction (page 5).
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Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Target (TGT)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Target‘s (TGT) Q3 2024 earnings call.
Target (TGT) is a US retailer with over 1,900 locations that serve millions of shoppers nationwide along with a growing digital platform across essentials, home goods, apparel, beauty, and groceries. This quarter was challenging for TGT given 0.3% comparable sales growth driven by a 2.4% increase in traffic but offset by a 2% drop in average ticket size as cautious consumers gravitated toward promotions. Digital sales jumped 11% thanks largely to same-day delivery, which grew 20%. Strength is essentials and beauty was offset by ongoing softness in discretionary categories like home and hardlines. The company faced supply chain disruptions, including port strikes and higher inventory costs, but took proactive measures to protect holiday readiness. One interesting note in category performance: management noted that nutrition categories “performed very well.” Perhaps this is the RFK Jr. MAHA trend starting to take shape, not only discouraging toxins but also encouraging healthy choices? While competitor Walmart (WMT) outperformed, TGT missed estimates across the board and lowered guidance, sending the stock plummeting 21.3% on 11/20…
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Bespoke’s Weekly Sector Snapshot — 11/21/24
Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Lowe’s (LOW)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Lowe‘s (LOW) Q3 2024 earnings call.
Lowe’s (LOW) is a home improvement retailer serving homeowners, renters, and professional contractors across the US and Canada. Offering products ranging from appliances and tools to paint and home decor, Lowe’s caters to DIY enthusiasts and small-to-medium-sized Pro customers. With over 2,000 stores, Lowe’s provides valuable insights into consumer spending trends, housing market dynamics, and broader economic shifts. In Q3, the Pro segment delivered high single-digit comps, supported by enhanced inventory and digital tools like “Shop the Job.” Online sales grew 6%, driven by a 10% traffic increase on the Lowe’s app. The MyLowe’s Rewards program gained traction, boosting repeat purchases and average order values. LOW called out its Total Home Strategy to position the itself for long-term growth, leveraging drivers like aging housing stock and millennial household formation. Despite beats on the top and bottom lines, LOW shares fell 4.6% on 11/19 due to year-over-year declines in revenue and EPS as management noted affordability challenges from high interest rates and inflation, with DIY discretionary demand still under pressure…
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Chart of the Day – MicroStrategy (MSTR)
Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Walt Disney (DIS)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Walt Disney‘s (DIS) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Walt Disney (DIS) is a global entertainment leader known for its streaming (Hulu & Disney+), box-office production (Pixar, Marvel and 20th Century Studios), cable television (ABC and Fox Networks), theme parks, cruises, sports (ESPN), and more. While there was some concern for parks after several weather events around the world, the Paris Olympics, and tough comparisons in Orlando, there were some positives in that part of the business as noted with plans for a sixth cruise ship, park expansions, strong bookings for 2025, and a gradual recovery in consumer spending. Disney+ ended the quarter at 174 million core and Hulu subscriptions, and management noted a new personalized ESPN tile launch in December. Management also discussed its strong content slate for 2025 that will follow up successful 2024 titles, including “Captain America” and “Avatar” sequels. The optimistic outlook and earnings triple play propelled shares 6.2% higher on 11/14…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for DIS by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below: