The Closer – Fedspeak, Budget Forecasts, Consumer Credit – 2/7/24
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a recap of tonight’s earnings and the big day of Fedspeak (page 1). Next, we dive into the latest Congressional Budget Office forecasts (pages 2 and 3) before shifting over to the latest consumer credit figures (page 4). We then review today’s solid 10 year note auction (page 5) and the latest petroleum inventory data (page 6).
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 2/7/24
Chart of the Day – Housing Still Fixated on Rates
Fixed Income Weekly — 2/7/24
Searching for ways to better understand the fixed income space or looking for actionable ideas in this asset class? Bespoke’s Fixed Income Weekly provides an update on rates and credit each week. We start off with a fresh piece of analysis driven by what’s in the headlines or driving the market in a given week. We then provide charts of how US Treasury futures and rates are trading, before moving on to a summary of recent fixed-income ETF performance, short-term interest rates including money market funds, and a trade idea. We summarize changes and recent developments for a variety of yield curves (UST, bund, Eurodollar, US breakeven inflation, and Bespoke’s Global Yield Curve) before finishing with a review of recent UST yield curve changes, spread changes for major credit products and international bonds, and 1-year return profiles for a cross-section of the fixed income world.
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 2/7/24 – Futures on the Rebound
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“If your work is so smart that only smart people get it, it’s not that smart.” – Chris Rock
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
US equity futures were flat to modestly lower up until about an hour ago, but have seen a nice bounce, and all three major US indices are indicated to open higher on the day. Once again, there’s not much economic data to steer futures, and the pace of earnings since yesterday’s close has been mixed. On the upside, Ford (F) has been one of the bigger winners as it trades 5% higher after better-than-expected earnings and announcing a special dividend of 18 cents per share. To the downside, shares of Snap (SNAP) have lost nearly a third of their value this morning following a weaker-than-expected report, putting the stock on pace to fall in reaction to earnings for seven straight quarters.
In international markets, it was a mixed session in Asia overnight as Japan saw a stronger-than-expected report on Leading Indicators. Europe has taken a modestly negative tone in early trading as most major indices in the region trade down fractionally. In Germany, Industrial Production fell more than expected while a payrolls report in France was slightly better than expected.
After Tuesday’s rally in mainland China, the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) had its best day since last July as it rallied 6.7%. Investors were excited about the prospects for a major round of stimulus from the Chinese government to prop up its stock market and economy, but it’s important to realize that there have been more than a few false alarms over the last few years. Already this morning, KWEB reversed some of yesterday’s gains with a decline of over 2% in the pre-market.
The chart below shows the performance of KWEB since its inception in 2013, and the red dots indicate each time the ETF rallied more than 5% in a single day. It’s easy to see that there have been a lot more occurrences since the ETF’s peak in February 2021 than before it. Of the 58 occurrences in the ETF’s history, 42 (72%) have been in the last three years.
After big rallies in a bear market like Tuesday, it’s tempting to think that it’s the start of something bigger, but in KWEB’s case, it has not. We saw a similar dynamic at play in the US during the dot-com bust and then during the financial crisis where the response to every big move was “Is this it?” Eventually, one of the rallies does take hold, but there are a lot of false alarms along the way. In KWEB’s case, Tuesday’s rally only took the ETF back to where it was less than two weeks ago.
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The Closer – Consumer Credit, Mortgages, Logistics Leap – 2/6/24
Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.
Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we kick things off with a review of tonight’s earnings and today’s Fedspeak (page 1). We then dive into the latest consumer credit data (pages 2 – 5) before also reviewing the latest mortgage delinquency figures (page 6). After a look into the latest Logistics Managers Index data (page 7), we finish with a review of today’s solid 3 year note auction (page 8).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Daily Sector Snapshot — 2/6/24
Bespoke Stock Scores — 2/6/24
Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report — February 2024
Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report is an analysis of a huge consumer survey that we run each month. Our goal with this survey is to track trends across the economic and financial landscape in the US. Using the results from our proprietary monthly survey, we dissect and analyze all of the data and publish the Consumer Pulse Report, which we sell access to on a subscription basis. Sign up for a 30-day free trial to our Bespoke Consumer Pulse subscription service. With a trial, you’ll get coverage of consumer electronics, social media, streaming media, retail, autos, and much more. The report also has numerous proprietary US economic data points that are extremely timely and useful for investors.
We’ve just released our most recent monthly report to Pulse subscribers, and it’s definitely worth the read if you’re curious about the health of the consumer in the current market environment. Start a 30-day free trial for a full breakdown of all of our proprietary Pulse economic indicators.
