The Closer – Tariff Chaos, Momentum Shift, Fed – 4/9/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, after a wild session, we start by reviewing the latest tariff news (page 1) in addition to the reaction across assets (page 2 and 3). Focusing in on equities, we also show just how strong breadth was (page 4) and the incredible turnaround in momentum (page 5). After a review of the latest Fed developments (page 6), we finish by reviewing today’s very strong 10-year note reopening (page 7).
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Chart of the Day: Historic Session But Still a Bad Start to the Administration
Daily Sector Snapshot — 4/9/25
Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Delta Air Lines (DAL)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Delta Air Lines’ (DAL) Q1 2025 earnings call.
Delta Air Lines (DAL) is one of the largest global airlines, offering passenger and cargo service to more than 275 destinations across six continents. DAL generates a significant portion of its revenue from premium seating, international travel, and a lucrative co-branded credit card partnership with American Express. The airline is a key barometer for consumer and corporate travel trends. DAL recorded March quarter revenue of $13 billion, but flagged a more difficult operating environment. Domestic main cabin demand was notably weak, prompting plans to cut second-half capacity growth to flat, with specific reductions in off-peak days and Southeastern markets. Premium and loyalty revenues remained resilient, with Amex remuneration up 13% and premium revenue up 7%. International bookings stayed strong, especially on transatlantic and Pacific routes. Executives also warned of tariff risks, stating they won’t accept deliveries of Airbus aircraft with a 20% surcharge. No full-year guidance was given due to macro uncertainty. On better-than-expected results, DAL shares were up as much as 23.4% on 4/9…
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Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: WD-40 (WDFC)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers WD-40’s (WDFC) Q2 2025 earnings call.
WD-40 (WDFC) is best known for its namesake Multi-Use Product, a household and industrial lubricant with global brand recognition. Beyond its iconic blue and yellow can, the company develops a range of maintenance products, including the WD-40 Specialist line, serving end users in automotive, industrial, and DIY markets across more than 176 countries. With a lean product portfolio and asset-light model, WDFC offers a window into global industrial demand, distributor dynamics, and consumer-level brand loyalty. WDFC reported 5% sales growth in Q2, or 9% in constant currency, led by double-digit volume gains in EIMEA and a $3.4M lift from Brazil’s new direct distribution model. Premium product sales rose sharply (Smart Straw/EZ Reach up 11%, Specialist up 12%) and e-commerce sales climbed 9% YTD. Gross margin hit 54.6%, up 220 bps, driven by lower can and chemical costs. Supply chain optimizations are expected to offset potential tariff impacts this year. WDFC is actively marketing its homecare and cleaning brands for divestiture, aiming to sharpen its focus on higher-margin maintenance products. Despite rising 3% at the open on 4/8, the stock reversed to end the day almost 9% lower…
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Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Dave & Buster’s (PLAY)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) operates a chain of entertainment and dining venues that combine full-service restaurants with large-scale arcades. It appeals to a wide demographic, from families and young adults to corporate event groups. What’s notable is its high ROI on new store builds and innovative game rollouts that keep guests engaged and returning. This quarter’s call centered on undoing strategic missteps by prior leadership. Interim CEO Kevin Sheehan outlined a full operational reset, including a return to TV advertising, simplified promotions like the “Eat & Play Combo,” and reversing unpopular menu changes. A major refresh of arcade offerings is underway, including new attractions like the “Human Crane” and exclusive games such as UFC Challenge and Godzilla VR. Remodel efforts are being slowed and retooled for ROI, while traffic trends in March and April showed marked improvement. PLAY shares gapped up 13.8%, but those gains were completely erased intraday and the stock closed about 2% in the red…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for PLAY by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/9/25 – China Responds
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“One should always be drunk. That’s all that matters…But with what? With wine, with poetry, or with virtue, as you chose. But get drunk.” ― Charles Baudelaire, Paris Spleen
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After announcing the reciprocal tariffs in the Rose Garden last week, the President and members of his administration warned other countries not to retaliate. Why they thought some of our largest trade partners would sit back and “take their medicine” with no response is beyond us. This morning, China shot back with its response announcing 84% tariffs on US imports. Futures, which were lower overnight and rallied into the morning, are now back near their lows of the after-hours session, and the S&P 500 looks like it will be on pace to close 20%+ from its record close on 2/19. Up and down, it goes and where it stops nobody knows. Looking on the bright side, while the retaliatory tariffs announced by China have knocked futures lower, it didn’t come with a significant devaluation of the yuan which would have arguably made things worse.
The volatility and magnitude of declines we have experienced over the last several days and weeks is unprecedented. The S&P 500 is on pace for one of its fastest-ever 20% declines from an all-time high. Over the shorter term, consider this. On Monday, the Nasdaq traded down more than 4% on an intraday basis and finished the day higher. Then, on Tuesday, the Nasdaq traded over 4% higher intraday and then finished lower. Back-to-back opposite moves of that magnitude have never happened, and the next closest was in October 2008 when there was a similar reversal of 3%.
Regardless of what the market does today, the Nasdaq’s 50-day moving average (DMA) will cross below the 200-DMA as both are trending lower, forming what technicians call an iron, or death cross.
Today’s moving average crossover will end the fourth-longest streak of the 50-DMA settling above the 200-DMA. At 519 trading days, it was the longest streak since November 2018, and the only two other streaks that were longer ended in September 2015 and September 1998.
The Closer – Bond Selloff, SPY Sputters, Yuan Down – 4/8/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a note on the sell off in bonds and commodities (page 1) and then a look at the intraday reversal in equities (pages 2 and 3). We then dive into the selloff in the Chinese Yuan (page 4 and 5).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Daily Sector Snapshot — 4/8/25
Biggest Jumps in Dividend Yields
While the tariff situation has created a great deal of uncertainty and stock prices have crashed in tow, one silver lining is that dividend yields have at least ticked up. Currently, the S&P 500’s dividend yield of 1.64% is the highest it has been since November 2023. For the average member that pays a dividend, it has seen a 33 bps increase in its yield, up to 2.58%. Additionally, there are 59 S&P 500 members that now have a higher yield than the 10-year Treasury. Of course, the impact of tariffs could materially impact earnings and hence their ability to pay a dividend at all, but holding that conversation aside, below we show the S&P 500 members that have seen the largest increases in their dividend yields since the sell-off began on February 19. Of all members of the index, there are 34 to have seen a full percentage point increase in their yields as a result of the declines since the S&P’s high. The largest increase has come from Dow (DOW) which now yields over 10% after falling over 30% since 2/19. That is also the single highest yield of all S&P 500 members. Of the rest of the list below, there are another five stocks that now rank in the top ten highest yields: LyondellBassell (LYB), Pfizer (PFE), Franklin Resources (BEN), APA Corp (APA), and United Parcel Services (UPS).
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