Chart of the Day – Unlucky Thirteen
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 3/11/25 – Nasdaq Drawdowns
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“A man who has made no enemies is probably not a very good man.” – Antonin Scalia
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After getting the pulp kicked out of them yesterday, bulls are looking to regroup this morning, and futures are marginally higher ahead of the opening bell, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both indicated up about 0.50%. Now, if you put any trust in those numbers, where have you been for the last three weeks? That’s not to say the market can’t squeak out an up day today, but lately, there has been little correlation between where futures look an hour before the opening bell versus where they finish the day.
Earlier this morning, small business sentiment from the NFIB came in weaker than expected for the second month. The only other report on today’s calendar is the January JOLTS report at 10 AM. In political news, the House is expected to vote on a continuing resolution to fund the government. While there is optimism that the vote will pass to help avoid a shutdown this weekend, the higher hurdle will be the Senate, where 60 votes are required to pass.
President Trump is also scheduled to meet with several CEOs at a meeting of the Business Roundtable today, so we’ll see what, if any, headlines come out of that meeting. The market’s main concern up until this point has been that the deteriorating levels of confidence on the part of consumers and businesses would translate into actual declines in activity. That remains to be seen in actual data, but Delta (DAL) may be showing hints of that effect starting to happen as the company cut guidance last night noting “the recent reduction in consumer and corporate confidence caused by increased macro uncertainty”. This morning, we’re also getting similar comments from several other airlines citing weakness in Q1 but expecting a rebound later in the year. CEOs at the meeting will voice their concerns to the President, so we’ll see how much he listens.
The Nasdaq Composite moved firmly back into correction territory yesterday as the drawdown from its December high reached 13.4%. Looking at the chart of the index over the last year shows an interesting pattern where it made numerous unsuccessful attempts to break above its December high in the last few months. After failing again less than three weeks ago, the Nasdaq ran out of gas and has collapsed to its lowest level since September 11 of last year.
No one can tell you when this decline will run its course, and it will depend on several factors. The only thing we can do at times like this is look back at history for a guide to see the range of possible outcomes. The chart below shows Nasdaq drawdowns from all-time highs since its inception, with the red line showing the level of the current decline. Believe it or not, the Nasdaq has been further from an all-time high than it currently is on 49% of all trading days, a lot of which were during the dot-com bust. That’s one extreme period we all hope is in the cards!
The Closer – Equal Weight Outperforms, Breadth Surprise, SCE – 3/10/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we recap the brutal day on wall street including the drop in retail risk and private equity names (page 1), how valuations have shaped up (page 2), the break below the 200-DMA (page 3), and the massive outperformance of equal weight indices versus market cap weighted versions (page 4). We also review the not-so-bad breadth in spite of today’s declines (page 5). We also take a deep dive into the latest New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (page 6 – 8).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Daily Sector Snapshot — 3/10/25
Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report — March 2025
Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report is an analysis of a huge consumer survey that we run each month. Our goal with this survey is to track trends across the economic and financial landscape in the US. Using the results from our proprietary monthly survey, we dissect and analyze all of the data and publish the Consumer Pulse Report, which we sell access to on a subscription basis. Sign up for a 30-day free trial to our Bespoke Consumer Pulse subscription service. With a trial, you’ll get coverage of consumer electronics, social media, streaming media, retail, autos, and much more. The report also has numerous proprietary US economic data points that are extremely timely and useful for investors.
We’ve just released our most recent monthly report to Pulse subscribers, and it’s definitely worth the read if you’re curious about the health of the consumer in the current market environment. Start a 30-day free trial for a full breakdown of all of our proprietary Pulse economic indicators.
The Nasdaq 25 Years Later
Twenty-five years ago, the fun of the Dot Com boom came to an end. Roughly beginning in December 1994 with the release of the first internet browser, Netscape, the Nasdaq would go on to rally just under 600% through the closing high set on March 10, 2000. After that high, the index declined with persistent losses as it didn’t find a bottom until over two and a half years later in October 2002. By then, the index was down 77.8% from its high, and it wasn’t until 2015 that the Nasdaq eventually reclaimed those prior highs. Fast forward to today, even though the Nasdaq has once again pulled back from its most recent highs, the index is now up 250% since that Dot Com peak and is up almost 1,500% since the 2002 low.
A quarter century later, the Nasdaq is once again in the midst of a new technical revolution with the emergence of AI. Additionally, while on March 10, 2000, the Nasdaq hadn’t quite started to roll over, today it is in a significant drawdown having fallen 13% from the December 16 high. In the chart below, we show the drawdowns in the Nasdaq in the year after the 2000 high versus the current drawdown so far since the December peak. As shown, the pullback off of the Dot Com high was much more rapid that what has been seen lately. For the comparable number of trading days, the Nasdaq was already closing in on a 40% decline in 2000 versus only a 13% drop currently. Additionally, this latest drop has seen the Nasdaq actually trade sideways for about a month before things really started to fall off a cliff in the past couple of weeks.
While the move off of the recent high doesn’t exactly line up with the Dot Com era, using a different starting point shows a much greater correlation. Below we show the performance of the Nasdaq in the three and five years following the releases of Netscape and ChatGPT. As shown, the two lines have tracked one another remarkably well including this latest pullback.
Chart of the Day: Monday Opens Lower
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 3/10/25 – More Monday Weakness
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Everybody in the world is a long-term investor until the market goes down.” – Peter Lynch
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The NFL season ended a month ago, but Carrie Underwood’s “Waiting All Day for Sunday Night” has remained as applicable as ever. With the S&P 500 teetering just above its 200-DMA and the market feeling vulnerable, investors now spend Sundays waiting for the inevitable opening of futures markets to see how bad the damage will be.
Once again, yesterday, the picture wasn’t good as futures have been weak all night. The S&P 500 finished last Friday just about 1% above its 200-day moving average (DMA), and this morning’s indicated weakness will put the level to the test for the fifth day in a row. There’s only so much testing a moving average can take before it gives way. Even European equities, which have been outperforming US stocks by a wide margin this year, are also feeling the pressure. What makes this morning’s weakness notable, though, is that there hasn’t been a specific catalyst.
The equal-weighted S&P 500 hasn’t been as weak as the cap-weighted index this year, but it finds itself in the same situation. It closed out last week just about 1% above its 200-DMA and is indicated to open down by a similar amount.
Normally, when doubts over the economy start to arise and markets start experiencing weakness, any comments that come from the Federal government attempt to take a soothing tone, but like a team having a tough season looking to improve their position in the next season’s draft, investors have been watching comments coming from administration and asking if they’re borrowing from the ‘tank-job’ playbook.
On CNBC last Friday, Treasury Secretary Bessent remarked, “Could we be seeing that this economy that we inherited starting to roll a bit? Sure”. He then added what has already become a now famous line, “There’s going to be a detox period.” It’s not common to see a Treasury Secretary talk down and pile on to what is an already shaky economic and market picture. Even in 2008, just ahead of the Financial Crisis, Treasury Secretary Paulson would regularly make comments like “I think the economy is — long-term fundamentals are very healthy, that I believe we’re going to continue to grow”.
In a Fox News interview that aired this weekend (recorded earlier in the week), President Trump took a similar stance, saying “There will be a little disturbance, but we are OK with that.” He added. “It won’t be much.” With regards to the stock market, the President claimed, “I’m not even looking at the market.” Come again? President Trump not looking at the stock market????
For anyone who was still using President Trump’s first four years as a playbook for the next four, you can burn it. Look on the bright side, though: maybe the economy will get some good draft picks.
Brunch Reads – 3/9/25
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
You Can Be Anything:
Barbie made her debut on March 9th, 1959, when Mattel introduced the doll at the American International Toy Fair in New York City. Barbie was designed to be a sophisticated fashion doll that offered young girls a glimpse into adult life, breaking away from the traditional baby dolls that dominated the market at the time. Inspired by the German Bild Lilli doll, Mattel envisioned Barbie as a toy that would let children imagine themselves in aspirational roles, from career professionals to glamorous fashion icons.
The first Barbie, sporting a black-and-white striped swimsuit and a signature ponytail, was an instant success. Retailing for just $3, Mattel sold over 300,000 units in the first year. Over the decades, Barbie evolved to reflect changing cultural trends to remain relevant. Today, Barbie is a global icon, with over one billion dolls sold and an enduring influence on fashion, entertainment, and pop culture.
Markets & Investing
You Can’t Escape Politics. Your Investing Decisions Can. (WSJ)
The launch of the Defiance MAGA Seven ETF is the latest attempt to mix politics with investing, but history suggests these types of funds rarely perform well. Whether it’s right-leaning funds like MAGA ETF or left-leaning ESG strategies, politically motivated investing often underperforms because markets price in obvious trends long before retail investors act. While it may feel satisfying to align investments with idealogical beliefs, the market doesn’t care how you vote, and prioritizing politics over discipline is usually a losing strategy. For more on this topic, check out our Get Invested series. [Link]
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The Bespoke Report — 3/7/25
To read our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. In this week’s report, we break down the market’s steep drop since it peaked a few weeks ago and see how internals and fundamentals are holding up. Give it a read!
