Brunch Reads – 5/12/24

Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of the favorite things we read over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.

While you’re here, join Bespoke Premium with a 30-day trial!

On This Day in History:

Carter Visits Castro: On May 12th, 2002, former US President Jimmy Carter became the first sitting or former US president to visit Cuba since Fidel Castro’s revolution in 1959. Of course, the relationship between the United States and Cuba had been tumultuous for decades. It defined a large part of John F. Kennedy’s presidency with the failed Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961 and the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 which brought the world to the brink of nuclear war. During Carter’s five-day visit, he met with Castro and also addressed the Cuban people directly via national television advocating for improved relations between the two countries. The visit resonated with people of both nations who hoped for an end to the decades-long hostilities. It laid the groundwork for future diplomatic relations like in 2014 when President Obama announced plans to restore relations with Cuba which culminated in the reopening of embassies in Havana and DC in 2015.

Environmental

Los Angeles Just Proved How Spongy a City Can Be (WIRED)
In response to the extreme rainfall from an atmospheric river, Los Angeles captured 8.6 billion gallons of stormwater using its “sponge city” strategy. This includes transforming impermeable surfaces to permeable ones and expanding spreading grounds to collect water. As urban areas globally face increasing flood risks, LA’s approach utilizes stormwater as a resource rather than a liability, integrating green spaces to enhance water absorption and reduce urban heat. [Link]

Giant Batteries Are Transforming the Way the U.S. Uses Electricity (NYT)
California leads the nation in harnessing solar energy but does have issues as solar output declines at sunset, coinciding with peak electricity demand. To address this, California has dramatically expanded its installation of large-scale batteries, now second only to China in capacity. These batteries store excess solar energy during daylight and release it in the evening, contributing to the state’s power supply and reducing reliance on fossil fuels. The rapid growth of battery technology suggests a future where batteries help stabilize grids and extend the use of renewable energy across the United States. [Link]

Wind and solar are ‘fastest-growing electricity sources in history’ (Carbon Brief)
Renewable energy sources like wind and solar are set to initiate a decline in fossil fuel electricity generation and emissions starting this year, according to Ember’s global electricity review. In 2023, renewables met a record 30% of global electricity demand, despite a drop in hydropower. However, to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C climate target, renewable energy deployment needs to triple by 2030, a goal that would significantly reduce power sector emissions by nearly half. [Link]

Investments

Stocks Trade for 390 Minutes a Day. Increasingly, Only 10 Matter (Bloomberg)
A substantial portion of S&P 500 trades are now executed in the final 10 minutes of trading. About a third of all trades occur in this brief window, up from 27% in 2021. This concentration of trades at the close is tied to passive funds aligning with daily benchmark prices, but it raises concerns about potential price distortions and the broader impact on market dynamics. [Link]

Buffett Rules Out ‘Eye-Popping’ Returns. But Investors Aren’t Listening. (WSJ)
Warren Buffett has tempered expectations for Berkshire Hathaway’s future performance, noting that the conglomerate is unlikely to achieve “eye-popping” growth due to its size. Despite this, Berkshire’s shares have outperformed the market, with Class B shares increasing by 12% this year. This success comes as Buffett navigates the company without his long-time partner Charlie Munger, and ahead of the annual shareholders’ meeting in Omaha, dubbed “Woodstock for Capitalists.” [Link]

Give This Rich Dude $1 or The Onion Disappears Forever (WIRED)
Jeff Lawson, the co-founder of Twilio, recently acquired the satire website The Onion through his new company, Global Tetrahedron. Despite leaving Twilio after being pressured by activist investors, Lawson’s move into media will focus on The Onion’s independence from traffic-driven revenue models. He introduced a unique funding approach by asking readers for voluntary donations. With plans to explore various business models without a hard paywall, Lawson will try to preserve the essence of satire. [Link]

Health & Wellness

Hacking the immune system could slow ageing — here’s how (Nature)
Stem-cell researcher Carolina Florian witnessed elderly mice rejuvenate after treatment with a drug that modifies the protein organization inside hematopoietic stem cells, which are crucial for the immune system. This treatment, verified across multiple labs, not only improved the mice’s physical attributes but also extended their lifespans by altering the balance of immune cells. These findings, detailed in studies from 2020 and 2022, suggest that targeting immune system aging could broadly rejuvenate bodily functions. While the promise of applying these results to human aging is compelling, researchers proceed cautiously due to the complexities of manipulating the immune system. [Link]

Texas dairy farm worker’s case may be first where bird flu virus spread from mammal to human, scientists say (STAT)
A recent report highlights a potential first case of bird flu (H5N1) transmitting from a mammal to a human in the United States. This unique case involved a Texas man possibly infected through exposure to sick cows on a dairy farm, where no prior animal testing for the virus had occurred. Previously, H5N1 transmission to humans was known only through direct contact with infected birds. Despite the man displaying only mild symptoms, primarily conjunctivitis, this incident worth taking note of. [Link]

Smartphone Bans, Student Outcomes and Mental Health (Norwegian Institute of Public Health)
This study investigates the effects of banning smartphones in Norwegian middle schools. It finds that such bans lead to significant mental health improvements, particularly in reducing psychological issues and bullying among students. Additionally, the bans boost academic performance, especially for girls, by improving GPAs and increasing the likelihood of pursuing an academic track in high school. The study suggests that smartphone bans could be an effective and low-cost policy to boost student outcomes and well-being. [Link]

AstraZeneca withdraws Covid-19 vaccine citing low demand (CNN Business)
AstraZeneca has announced the withdrawal of its Vaxzevria COVID-19 vaccine from the European market due to a large decrease in demand. Despite the vaccine’s substantial role in global vaccination efforts, with over 3 billion doses distributed, it has not been commercially viable since April 2023. The company plans to work with regulators to withdraw the vaccine in other regions where no demand is projected. [Link]

Policy & Law

Swiss Army Knife Goes Blade-Less as Weapons Regulations Tighten (Bloomberg)
Victorinox, known for its Swiss Army Knife, plans to introduce a version without a blade in response to tighter global weapon regulations. CEO Carl Elsener highlighted the company’s adaptation to laws in countries like the UK and Japan, where carrying knives is restricted. The new design will feature tools catered to cyclists among other additions, moving away from the knife’s traditional image. This change addresses increasing legal challenges while maintaining the utility and iconic status of the Swiss Army Knife. [Link]

CFTC Wants to Ban Trades Tied to Elections, Sports and Awards Contests (WSJ)
Regulators are moving to ban derivatives contracts based on outcomes like political elections and sports, aiming to distinguish between gambling and legitimate financial market activities. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed new rules with a 3-2 vote, highlighting concerns about election integrity and the potential for market abuse. While the market for event contracts is relatively small, it has seen significant growth since 2021, prompting this regulatory scrutiny. The proposal, which is still months away from potential enactment, seeks to prohibit bets on elections, sports, and awards within the financial markets, preserving the integrity of both the elections and the financial system. [Link]

Investments

China Is Buying Gold Like There’s No Tomorrow (NYT)
As gold prices soared to record highs, driven largely by geopolitical and economic turmoil, Chinese consumers like Xena Lin have eagerly participated in the market by purchasing small, affordable gold “beans.” With waning confidence in traditional investments like real estate and stocks, and significant purchases by China’s central bank aiming to diversify away from US dollar dependence, Chinese demand has played a crucial role in the sustained high prices of gold. [Link]

Retail investors snap up triple-leveraged US equity ETFs (Financial Times)
In April, retail investors demonstrated a strong appetite for high-risk financial products by directing approximately $5.2 billion into the top 22 leveraged US ETFs. This surge in interest, tracked by VandaTrack, follows previous withdrawals from passive funds amidst record highs in the S&P 500. The uncertainty surrounding US interest rates and new geopolitical tensions spurred investors to engage with these leveraged ETFs, intensifying potential gains and losses. Despite making up a small portion of the $8.9 trillion US ETF market, the growing popularity of these funds, particularly among retail investors, raises concerns about heightened exposure to market volatility and potential losses. [Link]

Economic Trends

VC Investor: ‘Half the White-Collar Staff at Google Probably Does No Real Work’ (WebProNews)
David Ulevitch, an investor at Andreessen Horowitz, criticized the tech industry for harboring too many “irrelevant” and “BS jobs.” In an interview, he supported the notion that many tech companies are overstaffed, echoing the concerns of CEOs who admit to employing workers who contribute little to no meaningful work. Ulevitch highlighted that removing these surplus roles could benefit companies by reducing unnecessary interference in operations. He also pointed out the broader economic implications, noting that such jobs not only misallocate corporate funds but also detract from shareholder profits, impacting pensioners and retirement accounts. [Link]

Pandemic Savings Are Gone: What’s Next for U.S. Consumers? (San Francisco Fed)
Recent data suggest that American households have depleted the excess savings accumulated during the pandemic by March 2024. Initially, these savings surged due to governmental financial support and reduced spending during lockdowns, reaching a peak of $2.1 trillion in August 2021. However, these funds dwindled over the next two and a half years, with households using up about $70 billion monthly. Looking ahead, the future of consumer spending will likely depend on continued employment stability, utilization of non-pandemic savings, and potentially increased consumer debt, despite higher interest rates that make the cost of using credit higher. [Link]

Technology & AI

‘Worst commercial ever’: Apple faces backlash for new iPad ad (Mint)
Apple’s new iPad Pro advertisement, which showcases the device’s creation through the destruction of various creative objects, has sparked significant backlash on social media. The ad, featuring a giant press crushing items like pianos and guitars to form the ultra-thin iPad, was criticized for its negative symbolism. High-profile figures like Hugh Grant and Justine Bateman voiced their disapproval, with Grant commenting on the “destruction of the human experience” and Bateman questioning the impact of tech on the arts. Social media users suggested that a reversed depiction, showing creative items emerging from the iPad, might have been more positively received. [Link]

Read Bespoke’s most actionable market research by joining Bespoke Premium today!  Get started here.

Have a great weekend!

Highest and Lowest Price to Sales (P/S) Ratios

In the S&P 1500, which encompasses the large-cap S&P 500, the Mid Cap 400, and the Small Cap 600, there are just under 1,175 stocks that have positive next-year EPS estimates and trailing 12-month revenues of more than $1 billion.  We wanted to see which stocks of this group currently have the highest and lowest forward price-to-sales ratios.  For those that aren’t familiar with the price-to-sales ratio, it’s simply a stock’s current market cap divided by annual sales (in this case, forward 12-month consensus sales estimates).

Of the 1,150+ stocks that fit our initial criteria, the average stock currently has a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 2.59, but the median is significantly lower at 1.73.

Notably, 31 stocks currently have forward P/S ratios greater than 10, meaning their market cap is 10x larger than projected annual sales.  That’s a very high P/S ratio, and the company better be growing significantly if it hopes to maintain that type of multiple.  Collectively, these 31 stocks are up an average of 43.34% over the last year!  Below is the list for those interested.

NVIDIA (NVDA) currently has the highest forward price-to-sales ratio at 18.9.  Its shares are up 211.7% over the last year.

Five other stocks have P/S ratios above 15: Fair Isaac (FICO), Eli Lilly (LLY), Cadence Design (CDNS), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), and Monolithic Power (MPWR).  Credit card companies Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) both have 14x P/S ratios, and a few other very notable large-caps that have 10+ P/S ratios include Microsoft (MSFT), Broadcom (AVGO), and Texas Instruments (TXN).  Clearly, many of the Tech stocks on this list have seen massive gains since late 2022 from the current AI boom, and investors are still expecting BIG things in the years ahead to justify these kinds of multiples.  They have a lot to live up to indeed.

On the flip side are the stocks with the lowest price-to-sales ratios.  There are currently 338 stocks with forward P/S ratios that are less than one, meaning their market caps are lower than annual sales estimates.  When sales are greater than market cap, companies typically have very low (and usually declining) margins.  Many of the names below with P/S ratios of 0.20 or lower come from slow and steady groups like wholesale food distributors, big box retail, or large health care insurance providers.

Whereas the 31 stocks with 10+ P/S ratios are up 43% over the last year, the group of stocks below are only up an average of 6% YoY.  While many of these names are and will continue to be on a downward trajectory in the coming years, we’re confident that a few will end up turning around their margin situations, especially if we see a disinflationary environment.  Now go dig deeper and find them!

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 5/10/24 – Streaking

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“In general people put too much faith in the rich, the famous, the politicians, and not enough faith in themselves.” – Bono

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

If the pre-market gains hold into the close, today will mark the eighth straight day in a row of gains.  While that sounds impressive, there have been two other streaks of as long or longer since last summer, and the current seven-day streak is the fourth since last July. Last July, there was a thirteen-day winning streak (tied for the longest since at least 1953) while in December, the Dow was up nine days in a row.  As shown in the chart below, while these types of streaks may not quite be a dime a dozen, with 93 seven-day streaks since 1953 and 51 eight-day streaks, they’ve been common.

Read today’s entire Morning Lineup.

For much more analysis of global equities and economic readings released this morning, read today’s full Morning Lineup with a two-week Bespoke Premium trial.

The Year of the Utes?

The Utilities sector has been the second best of the eleven S&P 500 sectors so far in 2024, and it’s the best performing sector so far in May.

The sector has been on fire.

Below is a look at eight charts from our daily Sector Snapshot that gets sent to Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional clients daily.

Pretty much all readings are now very extended to the upside, including P/E ratio!

Below is a look at the individual stocks in the S&P 500 Utilities sector from our Trend Analyzer tool (also available to Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional clients).  As shown, every single stock is overbought, with the large majority in “extreme” overbought territory.

With AI and other new technologies demanding so much more electricity, have investors woken up to the fact that the companies providing it stand to benefit?

The Triple Play Report — 5/10/24

An earnings triple play is a stock that reports earnings and manages to 1) beat analyst EPS estimates, 2) beat analyst sales estimates, and 3) raise forward guidance.  You can read more about “triple plays” at Investopedia.com where they’ve given Bespoke credit for popularizing the term.  We like triple plays as an indication that a company’s business is firing on all cylinders, with better-than-expected results and an improving outlook.  A triple play is indicative of positive “fundamental momentum” instead of pure fundamentals, and there are always plenty of names with both high and low valuations on our quarterly list.

Bespoke’s Triple Play Report highlights companies that have recently reported earnings triple plays, and it features commentary from management on triple-play conference calls, company descriptions and analysis, and price charts.  Bespoke’s Triple Play Report is available at the Bespoke Institutional level only.  You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read this week’s Triple Play Report, which features 24 new stocks.  To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:

Bespoke Institutional – Monthly Payment Plan

Bespoke Institutional – Annual Payment Plan

Lantheus (LNTH) is an example of a company that reported an earnings triple play recently. It makes special medical products, including imaging agents, which are often liquids that patients drink or have injected. These agents help doctors see inside the body more clearly on scans like X-rays or MRIs. They highlight specific parts like organs or blood vessels, making it easier to diagnose certain diseases or cancer. The stock is currently in an uptrend after declining through the end of 2023 into the new year. From its low in January, LNTH is up close to 50% and is teetering on the level it traded at before its sharp drop last December due to prostate cancer treatment trial data that came in worse than Novartis AG’s (NVS).

Looking at the snapshot below from our Earnings Explorer, LNTH has come out on top against analyst estimates for some time now, with its fair share of triple plays mixed in. A streak of EPS beats goes back six years and counting, while its streak of revenue beats goes back 14 quarters. LNTH has also generated some big swings on its earnings days on a percentage basis.

Most important to the company are PYLARIFY, a Prostate-Specific Membrane Antigen (PSMA) PET imaging agent for Prostate cancer, and DEFINITY, an agent for ultrasound imaging. In 2024 alone, the American Cancer Society estimates that the US will see close to 300,000 new cases of prostate cancer and more than 35,000 deaths as diagnosis rates have increased. One in eight men will be diagnosed during their lifetime. LNTH also does work in other areas like Alzheimer’s and cardiology. You can read more about LNTH and the 23 other triple plays in our newest report by starting a Bespoke Institutional trial today.

Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes all information contained in these reports to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in these reports or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. This is not personalized advice. Investors should do their own research and/or work with an investment professional when making portfolio decisions. As always, past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results. Bespoke representatives or clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.

The Closer – Fedspeak, Financial Stability, Long Bond Sale – 5/9/24

Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.

Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start out with a rundown of the latest Fedspeak including comments ont he situation regarding commercial real estate prices (page 1). We then then review the latest earnings reports (page 2) before closing with a recap of today’s long bond auction (page 3).

See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!

Featured Tools

Bespoke Chart Scanner Bespoke Trend Analyzer Earnings Report Screener Seasonality Database Economic Monitors

Additional Features

Wealth Management Free Charting Bespoke Podcast Death by Amazon

Categories