Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 3/25/25 – Moving on Up
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“I’d rather be optimistic and wrong than pessimistic and right.” – Elon Musk
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Futures have been drifting higher all morning and have just recently moved modestly into positive territory building on the optimism from yesterday’s session. When the day started yesterday, all the major index ETFs we track in our Trend Analyzer were at oversold levels, but after yesterday’s rally, we’ve seen a continuation of the uniformity where they have all moved out of oversold and into neutral territory.
While optimism that the planned tariffs from the trump Administration won’t be as draconian as feared helped boost the market yesterday, not much has changed. There’s still tons of uncertainty regarding what the planned policies will be, but lower prices do make those high levels of uncertainty more palatable. Today, we’ll get reports on New Home Sales and Consumer Sentiment, and investors will probably be most focused on how consumer sentiment has continued to evolve given all the uncertainty surrounding geopolitics, the economy, and trade/tariff policies. Also just released was the Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing report for March. That index collapsed from -13.1 to -32.5, the fifth negative reading in a row and the lowest since Spring 2020. When it comes to soft data, data remains very weak.
With a decline of over 31% year to date, it’s been a hangover of a year for shares of Tesla (TSLA). Elon Musk has become a lightning rod in American politics, and everyone reading this probably has strong opinions of him (in both directions). Sales of Tesla vehicles have slowed due to protests, rising competition, and slower overall sales in general. Incredibly, the stock is down over 40% from its high just over three months ago in mid-December, but it’s still 11% higher than it was on Election Day last year. That means it has outperformed more than 80% of stocks in the S&P 500 during that time!
The Closer – CFNAI, Technicals, Losing Streaks – 3/24/25
Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.
Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a look at today’s readings on the CFNAI and flash PMIs (page 1). We then do a checkup on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq’s technicals (page 2 and 3) before diving into the notable losing streaks in the semiconductors and various S&P members (pages 4 and 5). We finish with some big moves in positioning data (page 6).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Daily Sector Snapshot — 3/24/25
Chart of the Day: 25 Years
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – Higher Mondays – 3/24/25
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“What the eyes see and the ears hear, the mind believes.” – Harry Houdini
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
US equity futures are getting a boost this morning after news broke over the weekend that the Trump administration is planning on narrowing the scope of its planned tariff implementation on April 2nd. As of 8 AM ET, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) was trading up 1.24% in the pre-market. If the gains hold, today will be the first time we’ve had a 1%+ opening gap higher on a Monday morning since October 17th, 2022!
Over the last ten years, there have been exactly twenty Monday morning gaps up of at least 1%. (Today would be the 21st.) On average, SPY has continued higher by another 0.17% from the open to the close on these strong Monday opens, and we’ve seen open to close gains 70% of the time. Only once (10/29/18) have we seen SPY finish the day in the red after starting the week with a 1%+ gap up.
Brunch Reads – 3/23/25
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
Freedom Finds Its Voice: On March 23, 1775, at St. John’s Church in Richmond, Virginia, Patrick Henry delivered one of the most electrifying speeches in American history. Addressing the Second Virginia Convention, Henry called for armed resistance against British rule. His words, culminating in the legendary phrase “Give me liberty, or give me death!”, helped push the colonies toward revolution. By 1775, tensions between Britain and the American colonies had reached a breaking point. The British government had imposed harsh measures, including the Intolerable Acts, to suppress colonial resistance. While some leaders still hoped for reconciliation, Henry saw war as inevitable. He warned that waiting for peace negotiations would only lead to further oppression. Within a month, the first shots of the American Revolution rang out at Lexington and Concord. His words became a rallying cry for revolutionaries and still symbolize the fight for freedom.
AI & Technology
Why Most Companies Shouldn’t Have an AI Strategy (WSJ)
Most companies scrambling to build AI strategies put the cart way before the horse. They don’t have the data, infrastructure, or internal culture needed to execute anything meaningful. The piece argues that AI shouldn’t be treated like some standalone revolution but as one part of a broader digital toolbox, integrated thoughtfully with existing tech and workflows. Instead of flashy top-down plans, progress is more likely to come from empowering employees to experiment responsibly and letting digital maturity grow from the ground up. [Link]
Continue reading our weekly Brunch Reads linkfest by logging in if you’re already a member or signing up for a trial to one of our two membership levels shown below! You can cancel at any time.
The Bespoke Report – 3/21/25 – Global Macro Update
To read our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. In this week’s report, we offer a top-down look at the three huge trends driving global markets and economies as the first quarter of 2025 comes to a close. We review developments and trends across the three major global economies as well as drivers of recent shifts across assets, and what the developments of the last couple of months imply for the future. Don’t miss it!
Daily Sector Snapshot — 3/21/25
Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Carnival (CCL)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Carnival’s (CCL) Q1 2025 earnings call.
Carnival (CCL) is the world’s largest cruise company, operating nine brands including Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, and AIDA, with a fleet that spans contemporary, premium, and luxury segments. The company serves vacationers globally, with a stronghold in the US, UK, and European markets. CCL offers insight into consumer travel trends, discretionary spending, and global tourism demand. Its unique land-sea packages in Alaska and growing portfolio of private destinations like Celebration Key reflect a strategic push to differentiate the guest experience. CCL’s Q1 results exceeded expectations. The company cited record booking volumes for 2025 and 2026, 10% growth in onboard spending, and strong pricing across all core brands. Marketing campaigns, like a Super Bowl tie-in and Times Square promotions, helped boost visibility and drive new-to-cruise growth. Upcoming openings at Celebration Key and a revamped Half Moon Cay aim to accelerate Caribbean capacity from 6.5M to 11M guests by decade’s end. Management acknowledged macro and geopolitical volatility but maintained full-year yield guidance and expressed confidence in continued pricing power.
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for CCL by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below: