Bespoke’s Brunch Reads – 6/2/24

Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of the favorite things we read over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.

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On This Day in History:

A Queen Crowned: On June 2nd, 1953, Queen Elizabeth II was crowned queen at 27 following the death of her father, King George VI. It was the first coronation to be watched from home, and the sale of televisions went through the roof. During her reign, Queen Elizabeth II oversaw the transition of several countries from British rule to independence. Notable examples include Ghana in 1957, Nigeria in 1960, and Kenya in 1963. She also played a role in transitioning the British Empire into the modern Commonwealth, as it grew from eight member nations to 54 during her reign. Her historic visit to Ireland in 2011 was even the first by a British monarch since Ireland gained independence, symbolizing a new era of Anglo-Irish relations. Despite her many accomplishments, the Queen didn’t escape controversy, as the royal family’s response to Princess Diana’s death in 1997 drew public criticism. Queen Elizabeth II sadly passed away in 2022 at the age of 96. As the longest-reigning monarch in British history, her son has taken over as King Charles III.

Environmental

Batteries Taking Charge of the California Grid (Grid Status Exports)
Battery storage in California ISO (Independent System Operator) has surged this spring, with batteries discharging over 5GW at peak times, doubling last year’s average. This increase has led to the lowest average hourly gas generation in seven years. Solar generation also set new records, with the top ten instantaneous solar records occurring in late April, working with batteries to manage solar ramps and reduce midday gas usage. Midday exports have declined despite increased solar generation, indicating a cleaner energy mix. [Link]

The incredible, Earth-saving electric bike is having a moment (Business Insider)
E-bikes have surged in popularity, especially during the pandemic, providing a greener alternative to cars for short trips. Research shows that using an e-bike even once a day can dramatically reduce transportation emissions. E-bikes can be convenient, but they can also help overcome barriers like steep hills and long commutes, making biking a viable option for more people who would otherwise avoid them. Sales of e-bikes have skyrocketed, and new legislation may soon offer financial incentives to boost their adoption. [Link]

The Slowdown in US Electric Vehicle Sales Looks More Like a Blip (Bloomberg)
Despite a flat start to the year for US EV sales and setbacks for Ford and Tesla, the EV market is still strong. Many top automakers, including Hyundai-Kia and Ford, saw substantial sales increases, with some brands seeing over 50% growth in Q1. GM expects a massive ramp-up with new models featuring its Ultium batteries. Tesla is navigating a transitional phase by opening its Supercharger network to non-Tesla owners and planning new vehicle launches, including a self-driving “Cybercab” and potentially more affordable models next year. Other manufacturers are introducing affordable, mass-produced EVs. Long-term forecasts remain optimistic for EV sales over the next few years. [Link]

Solar and battery storage to make up 81% of new U.S. electric-generating capacity in 2024 (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
According to the latest data, developers and power plant owners plan to add 62.8 gigawatts (GW) of new utility-scale electric-generating capacity in 2024, a 55% increase from 2023. Solar power will lead the charge, with an expected record addition of 36.4 GW, nearly doubling last year’s 18.4 GW. Key states like Texas, California, and Florida will dominate these new solar installations. Battery storage is also set to see substantial growth, with plans to add 14.3 GW, nearly doubling the current capacity, driven by projects in Texas and California and boosted by investment tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act. Wind power will add 8.2 GW, including significant offshore projects like Vineyard Wind 1 and South Fork Wind. Natural gas additions will be the lowest in 25 years, with 2.5 GW planned, primarily from simple-cycle gas turbine plants. Lastly, the Vogtle nuclear power plant in Georgia is set to start its fourth reactor in March 2024, contributing an additional 1.1 GW. [Link]

A problematic estimate of warming from low-sulfur marine fuels (The Climate Brink)
Aerosols play a complex role in the climate system by reflecting sunlight and serving as cloud condensation nuclei, which cool the Earth. The main source of these aerosols has been burning sulfur-rich fossil fuels. However, global sulfur dioxide emissions have decreased significantly, particularly due to regulations like the IMO2020, which dramatically cut sulfur emissions from ships. This reduction has likely unmasked some of the warming previously offset by these aerosols. A new study estimates that the IMO2020 regulations have led to an increase in radiative forcing over the oceans, contributing to additional warming. However, their simplified model may overstate the immediate warming impact. [Link]

Economic Trends

Amazon Fresh to cut grocery prices by as much as 30% to bring back inflation-battered customers (New York Post)
Amazon is cutting grocery prices by up to 30% at its Amazon Fresh stores, both online and in physical locations, to attract inflation-weary customers. The discounts will cover 4,000 items, including meat, seafood, frozen food, dairy, snacks, and beverages, and apply to both national brands and Amazon-owned products. Prime members can enjoy an additional 10% off these reduced prices. Amazon is the latest to follow similar actions by Target and Walmart, which have also announced price cuts to help customers cope with rising food costs. [Link]

Investments

How Researchers Cracked an 11-Year-Old Password to a $3 Million Crypto Wallet (WIRED)
Two years ago, a cryptocurrency owner named Michael lost access to his $2 million worth of bitcoin stored in a password-protected digital wallet. After initial rejection, he convinced famed hacker Joe Grand to take on the challenge. Grand and his friend discovered a flaw in the RoboForm password manager that tied password generation to the computer’s date and time. This breakthrough allowed them to recreate Michael’s password from 2013, unlocking his fortune. Now, with his bitcoin valued at $3 million, Michael reflects on how losing access ultimately led to a greater financial gain. [Link]

Education

Are Gaza Protests Happening Mostly at Elite Colleges? (Washington Monthly)
Student protests against Israel’s actions in Gaza have been notably concentrated at elite colleges, like Columbia University, where fewer students come from lower-income families. Using data from Harvard’s Crowd Counting Consortium, it was found that pro-Palestinian protests and encampments were rare at colleges with high percentages of Pell Grant recipients, which indicates a lower-income student body. In contrast, protests were more common at selective, wealthy institutions. Data suggests that poorer students may prioritize other concerns like jobs and family responsibilities over protesting. Additionally, some colleges have a stronger tradition of activism, while others face political pressures to suppress protests. [Link]

War

‘He couldn’t wait to join’: thousands of young Russians die in Ukraine war (The Guardian)
Shortly after turning 18, Daniil Yermolenko joined the Russian armed forces, inspired by patriotic narratives. Following a brief training period, he was deployed to eastern Ukraine, where he tragically died in early April during intense combat. Yermolenko, the youngest known soldier killed in the conflict, was celebrated in his hometown with a military funeral. His death serves as an example of Russia’s push to recruit its youth, illustrated by increased spending on patriotic education and state-run militarized groups. Despite the Kremlin’s efforts, the effectiveness of this ideological campaign remains uncertain, with financial incentives playing an important role in recruitment. Yermolenko’s brother, Maksim, hopes Daniil’s story will motivate other young Russians to enlist. [Link]

Health & Wellness

What to Know About the Roiling Debate Over U.S. Maternal Mortality Rates (ProPublica)
An unusual public dispute has arisen among maternal health experts regarding the accuracy of the rising US maternal mortality rates over the past two decades. A new study claims that the CDC’s maternal death rates are inflated due to misclassified data and argues that the actual rates are lower and stable. The CDC and the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists criticized the study, stressing the importance of accurate data to address the maternal mortality crisis. Specifically, the introduction of the pregnancy checkbox on death certificates has improved the data collection process but also complicated it. Despite the differing views, both sides agree on the disproportionate impact on Black women and the need for more precise data to inform public health initiatives. [Link]

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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 5/31/24 – Let’s Talk Politics

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose voters.” – Donald Trump

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Just kidding.  We’ll keep the political discussion to a minimum. While last night’s verdict in the Trump hush money trial made for a big news event, its impact on the market has been negligible. Futures are modestly lower in the pre-market, but that’s likely more a factor of the 16% decline in Dell (DELL). There are also several notable economic reports at 8:30, including Personal Income, Personal Spending, and the PCE Deflator. Then, at 9:45 we’ll get a read of the manufacturing sector in May with the Chicago PMI.   How these reports shake out relative to expectations will have a larger impact on the last trading day of May than last night’s verdict.

The verdict is only 15 hours old, but Trump’s odds of winning the November election have only declined modestly according to the site electionbettingodds.com.  He still holds a 50.1% to 40.9% lead over President Biden in a head-to-head matchup, but on a generic party vote, the betting markets are much closer at 52.1% to 46.9%.  These numbers are still very close, and the betting markets have about as much accuracy as Fed forecasts, so keep that in mind. However, whether you find yourself ecstatic or downtrodden over the results, there are still 158 days between now and Election Day, so find a hobby to keep yourself occupied.

Yesterday, Salesforce (CRM) had a reservation with the woodshed, and today it is DELL’s turn as the stock plunged over 15% in reaction to its earnings report after the close. At current levels, it ranks as the sixth worst one-day reaction among S&P 500 companies to earnings since earnings season started in April.

Concerning DELL itself, if the current pre-market decline holds, this will be the stock’s worst one-day reaction to earnings since May 2012.  If it declines just a little bit more during the trading day, it could go down as the worst one-day reaction to earnings for the stock in its history as a public company since 2001.

CRM’s decline exacerbated what was already a period of weakness for the stock, but shares of DELL were on fire heading into the report. The stock had doubled since late February and was trading at ‘extreme’ overbought levels, so expectations were lofty, to say the least.  Even after today’s decline, it is still well above its 50 and 200-day moving averages and is only back to levels it was trading at last week.

To continue reading the rest of today’s morning note, where you’ll find much more analysis of global equities and economic readings released this morning, read today’s full Morning Lineup with a two-week Bespoke Premium trial.

The Closer – AI Earnings, Weight Loss, Seasonal Oddities – 5/30/24

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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start out with a recap of some of tonight’s notable earnings and commentary on the latest outbreak of avian influenza (page 1). We then review the earnings histories of our AI Baskets (page 2). Next, we take a look at the performance of non-drug related weight loss stocks (pages 3 and 4). Switching to macro data, we close our with a review of GDP (page 5), pending home sales and rent prices (page 6), and petroleum inventories (page 7).

See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!

Q1 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps

Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps provide helpful summaries of corporate conference calls throughout earnings season.  We go through the conference calls of some of the most important companies in the market and summarize key topics covered by management.  These recaps include information regarding each company’s financial results, growth by segment, as well as some aspects of the business that management expects to impact future results.  We also identify trends emerging for the broader economy in these recaps.

Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps are available at the Bespoke Institutional level only.  You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call recaps.  To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:

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Below is a list of the Conference Call Recaps published during the Q1 2024 and Q4 2023 earnings reporting periods.

Q1 2024 Recaps:

Best Buy: Q1 2025


Salesforce: Q1 2025


CAVA: Q1 2024


Dick’s Sporting Goods: Q1 2025


NVIDIA: Q1 2025


Target: Q1 2024


Toll Brothers: Q2 2024


Palo Alto: Q3 2024


Walmart: Q1 2025


Home Depot: Q1 2024


Airbnb: Q1 2024


Uber: Q1 2024


Palantir: Q1 2024


Apple: Q2 2024


Shake Shack: Q1 2024


Generac: Q1 2024


Amazon: Q1 2024


Restaurant Brands Intl: Q1 2024


Microsoft: Q3 2024


Alphabet: Q1 2024


Northrop Grumman: Q1 2024


Chipotle: Q1 2024


Meta Platforms: Q1 2024


General Motors: Q1 2024


Tesla: Q1 2024


PepsiCo: Q1 2024


Cadence Design: Q1 2024


American Express: Q1 2024


Netflix: Q1 2024


D.R. Horton: Q2 2024


CSX: Q1 2024


Las Vegas Sands: Q1 2024


United Airlines: Q1 2024


ASML: Q1 2024


Big Banks (JPM, C, GS, BAC, MS): Q1 2024


Delta Air Lines: Q1 2024


Lamb Weston: Q3 2024


Conagra Brands: Q3 2024

RH: Q4 2023

FedEx: Q3 2024

Nike: Q3 2024

Lululemon: Q4 2023

General Mills: Q3 2024

Q4 2023 Recaps:

Williams Sonoma: Q4 2023
Nordstrom: Q4 2023
AeroVironment: Q3 2024
Aaron’s: Q4 2023
NVIDIA: Q4 2024
Walmart: Q4 2024
Home Depot: Q4 2023
Deere: Q4 2023
Generac: Q4 2023
Airbnb: Q4 2023
AutoNation: Q4 2023
Restaurant Brands International: Q4 2023
Shopify: Q4 2023
Cloudflare: Q4 2023
Hershey: Q4 2023
Disney: Q1 2024
Arm: Q3 2024
Uber: Q4 2023
Chipotle: Q4 2023
Spotify: Q4 2023
Simon Property: Q4 2023
Palantir: Q4 2023
Caterpillar: Q4 2023
McDonald’s: Q4 2023
Apple: Q1 2024
Amazon: Q4 2023
Meta Platforms: Q4 2023
Honeywell: Q4 2023
Old Dominion Freight: Q4 2023
Starbucks: Q1 2024
Microsoft: Q2 2024
United Parcel Service: Q4 2023
Alphabet: Q4 2023
Whirlpool: Q4 2023
Super Micro Computer: Q2 2024
Norfolk Southern: Q4 2023
American Express: Q4 2023
IBM: Q4 2023
Tesla: Q4 2023
ASML: Q2 2024
Texas Instruments: Q4 2023
Netflix: Q4 2023
RTX: Q4 2023
3M: Q4 2023
General Electric: Q4 2023
Schlumberger: Q4 2023
PPG Industries: Q4 2023
Taiwan Semiconductor: Q4 2023
H.B. Fuller: Q4 2023
Fastenal: Q4 2023
Big Banks (JPM, C, BAC, GS): Q4 2023
Delta Air Lines: Q4 2024
Constellation Brands: Q3 2024
Conagra Brands: Q2 2024
Lamb Weston: Q2 2024
Walgreens: Q1 2024
FedEx: Q2 2024
Costco: Q1 2024
Brown-Forman: Q2 2024
SentinelOne: Q3 2024

 

 

Recaps published during Q1 2024 are available with a Bespoke Institutional subscription.

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 5/30/24 – Slumping Sales(force)

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“Finally, The End of Software is here.” – Marc Benioff, 2008

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

If you’re just looking at futures on the major indices, things look a lot worse than they seem. That’s because a 15% decline in Salesforce (CRM) following its earnings results after the close yesterday makes its presence felt, especially on the Dow (more on that below).  Outside of that report, investors remain defensive following a surge in rates earlier this week. Rates are lower this morning, but until we get through this week’s inflation data, it will be hard for investors to breathe any easier.  In Europe this morning, stocks are generally higher led higher by Spain while the overnight tone in Asia was weaker with both the Nikkei and Hang Seng down over 1%.

A lot of economic data just hit the tape including GDP, Personal Consumption, PCE, and Jobless Claims.  Overall, there were no major surprises, and on a positive note, the inflation aspects of the data were generally lower than expected.

Earnings season may have unofficially ended two weeks ago when Walmart (WMT) reported earnings on 5/16, but there have still been plenty of notable reports. Yesterday’s report from Salesforce (CRM) may have been one of the most notable. While the company reported better-than-expected earnings, it had a rare revenue miss and lowered guidance. The revenue miss was the first time the company missed since 2006! That was enough to send the stock plunging after hours, exacerbating what has already been a steady downtrend since its peak in early March. With the stock down over 15% in the pre-market, CRM is poised to close the gap higher from when it reported earnings late last November.

Within the S&P 500, CRM’s weight is just under 0.60%, so even with a decline of 15% in the pre-market, its impact on the index will be a negative hit of around 0.1%. Where CRM’s decline hurts, though, is on the performance of the Dow where its 4.6% weighting will cause a negative hit of around 275 points, or around 0.7%. As we noted yesterday, the DJIA is already underperforming the S&P 500 by a historically large margin YTD, so today’s move will widen the gap even more.

With today’s decline, CRM is also on pace to have its second-worst one-day reaction to earnings as a public company.  The worst drop occurred in response to an earnings report in August 2008. Furthermore, the stock has only declined by 10% or more in reaction to earnings four other times in the last 20 years.

While it is not uncommon to see smaller companies react poorly in reaction to earnings, it’s unusual among large-cap companies in the S&P 500. Since the start of April, CRM will be just the 24th S&P 500 company to decline more than 10% in reaction to earnings and just the tenth to fall more than 15% if its current declines hold into the close. Of those companies listed below, though, CRM would be just the fifth to gap down more than 15% on its earnings reaction day.

To continue reading the rest of today’s morning note, where you’ll find much more analysis of global equities and economic readings released this morning, read today’s full Morning Lineup with a two-week Bespoke Premium trial.

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