Trump 1.0 vs. 2.0: Back on Track?
Back on April 8th, the S&P 500 was down 16.9% in the 55 trading days since Inauguration Day on January 20th, but as shown below, the index has recovered all of its initial losses and is currently up 5% since President Trump re-took office. What a comeback!
At this point in Trump’s first term back in July 2017, the S&P was sitting on a gain of 8% since Inauguration Day.
Back in 2017, we saw stocks pull back a bit in August but then explode higher from September through December, and the S&P ended up posting a gain of 18% from Inauguration Day 2017 through the end of that year. We’ll have to wait and see what the rest of 2025 has in store, but either way, the market has seen an absolutely remarkable comeback from the depths of the Tariff Crash just a few months ago.
Even with the S&P back to new highs and up 5% since Trump’s 2nd term began, the US is near the bottom of the pack in terms of country by country stock market performance since Inauguration Day. Below is an updated look at the performance of 45 country ETFs traded on US exchanges since Inauguration Day as well as since Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements in the White House Rose Garden on April 2nd.
The average country ETF is up 16.8% since Trump re-took office, so the US (SPY) is underperforming that average by more than ten percentage points. The US is also still the worst performing of the G7 country ETFs since Inauguration Day, although it’s up the fourth most of the G7 countries since April 2nd.
There are six country ETFs that are up 30%+ since Inauguration Day back in January: Greece (GREK), Poland (EPOL), Spain (EWP), Austria (EWO), South Korea (EWY), and Vietnam (VNAM). On the other end of the spectrum, there are five country ETFs in the red since Inauguration Day: Indonesia (EIDO), Thailand (THD), Argentina (ARGT), Turkey (TUR), and Saudi Arabia (KSA).
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 7/18/25 – As Good as You Could Hope For
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“Life is a helluva lot more fun if you say yes rather than no” – Richard Branson
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There’s little action going on in equity futures this morning as the market looks to close out what was an important week in terms of economic and earnings-related data on a positive note. Heading into the final session of the week, the Nasdaq is up 1.5% week to date while the S&P 500 is up a more modest, but still respectable 0.60%.
There are only a handful of earnings reports this morning, but some of the more notable ones were 3M (MMM), American Express (AXP), Charles Schwab (SCHW), and SLB. All four companies managed to top expectations on both the top and bottom line, continuing what has been a positive start to the Q2 earnings season. On the economic calendar, we’ll close the week with Housing Starts and Building Permits at 8:30, followed by Michigan Confidence at 10.
As mentioned, it was a significant week for economic data, particularly in terms of inflation, and the results came in just about as good as anyone could have hoped for. Of the nine different major metrics for the week, the only one that came in higher than expected was headline CPI on a y/y basis.
While most of the inflation-related data came in lower than expected, other data for the week were nearly across the board better than expected. Not a single report missed expectations, and the only reports that didn’t top expectations were Business Inventories and Homebuilder Sentiment.
We’re only a week into earnings season, but the reporting period has gotten off to a strong start. 89% of the more than 75 companies that reported earnings this week topped EPS forecasts, and 79% exceeded sales estimates. Relative to the average EPS and sales beat rates over the last one and ten years, as well as going back to 2001, the readings for this earnings season are significantly better than expected.
The Closer – TICS, Tech Burning Up, Tariff Incidence – 7/17/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with a look at the surge of inflows of foreign capital (page 1) followed by a look at the rip-roaring rally in the Tech sector (page 2). We then look at retail sales, jobless claims, and regional Fed manufacturing data (page 3). Next, we show evidence of where the burden of tariffs are falling (page 4) before closing out with the weakness in homebuilder and remodeler sentiment (page 5).
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Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Cintas (CTAS)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Cintas’ (CTAS) Q4 2025 earnings call.
Cintas (CTAS) offers uniform rental, facility services, first aid and safety products, fire protection, and hygiene solutions to over 1 million businesses across North America. Its core customers range from small businesses to large corporations across sectors like healthcare, education, government, and hospitality. CTAS combines route-based logistics with technology like its Smart Truck platform and SAP-powered supply chain. The company offers a window into service-based B2B demand, labor efficiency, and US business sentiment across a broad economic footprint. CTAS delivered strong Q4 results, with 9% organic revenue growth and 9% EPS growth, driven by standout performance in First Aid & Safety (+18.5%) and Fire Protection (+12.1%). Management noted record-high customer retention and success expanding relationships across verticals. The Smart Truck routing system and auto-sortation helped improve margins, while tariff concerns were framed as a competitive opportunity due to CTAS’s sourcing flexibility. M&A spending was the highest since 2017 due to acquisitions across three route-based segments, Uniform Rental, First Aid & Safety, and Fire Protection. CTAS results topped estimates and the stock rose roughly 3% on 7/17…
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Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: PepsiCo (PEP)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers PepsiCo’s (PEP) Q2 2025 earnings call.
PepsiCo (PEP) is one of the world’s largest food and beverage companies, with a portfolio spanning iconic snack brands like Lay’s, Doritos, and Cheetos, and beverage brands including Pepsi, Gatorade, and Mountain Dew. The company operates globally but is anchored by two nearly $30 billion North American divisions: Frito-Lay North America (FLNA) and PepsiCo Beverages North America (PBNA). Organic revenue grew 4.5%, led by high-single-digit gains in away-from-home beverage sales, and continued momentum in international markets like LatAm and India. Amid regulatory shifts and rising consumer demand for cleaner labels, PEP is accelerating reformulations across snacks and beverages, removing artificial colors and flavors from Lay’s, Tostitos, and beverage lines. The company also highlighted the performance of its no-sugar colas and teased upcoming liquid protein and energy drink launches under big-brand banners, including Celsius and the Starbucks joint venture. Away-from-home sales continue to outperform and are margin-accretive. On better-than-expected results, PEP shares rallied 7.5% on 7/17…
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Bespoke’s Weekly Sector Snapshot — 7/17/25
Chart of the Day: Checking In On Office CRE
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – Navigating Netflix – 7/17/25
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“All money is a matter of belief.” – Adam Smith
Often hailed as the father of modern economics, Adam Smith (who died on this day in 1790) profoundly shaped our understanding of free markets and individual liberty through his seminal works, The Wealth of Nations and The Theory of Moral Sentiments. His ideas on the “invisible hand” and division of labor remain foundational to economic theory, emphasizing how self-interest and cooperation drive prosperity.
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The banks and brokers always kick off each earnings season, but Netflix (NFLX) is the company that gets things started on the Tech/Consumer side of things. As shown below, NFLX is heading into its Q2 earnings report tonight in a long-term uptrend, but it has pulled back some in the past couple of weeks after touching up against the top of its one-year uptrend channel at the end of June. At the moment, it’s sitting just above support at its 50-day moving average after working off overbought levels.
Below is a snapshot of Netflix (NFLX) from our Earnings Explorer tool, which can be seen on our website here for those with access (Institutional only). After stumbling on sales a few years ago in 2022, NFLX has seen a revenue resurgence with strong beats versus top-line estimates for six straight quarters. If estimates are met, this will be the third straight $10+ billion quarter for NFLX and the first above $11 billion.
There is some negative historical precedent for Netflix’s Q2 earnings reports specifically, though…
The Closer – Powell Firing, Beige Book, PPI – 7/16/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with some commentary regarding risks that could drive up yields which includes inflation data (pages 1 – 3). We then turn to a look at JB Hunt (JBHT) earnings and how today’s performance shaped up in spite of very weak breadth (page 4). Next, we check in on loan growth (page 5) before finishing with a look at some impressive earnings streaks ahead of earnings season (pages 6 & 7).
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