The Closer – Record Customs Duties, Small Range, Deciles – 5/12/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start with a look at the record share of federal government receipts coming in from customs duties in addition to a technical update of the S&P 500 (page 1). We also make note of the S&P 500’s remarkably tight intraday range despite the 3% gain today (page 2). We then provide a decile breakdown of today’s price action (page 3) before capping off with an update on positioning (pages 4 and 6).
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 5/12/25
Chart of the Day: Don’t Chase
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 5/12/25
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“You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from.” – Cormac McCarthy
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US equity futures are up 3% pre-market on news that the US and China would be pausing tariffs for 90 days after meetings between the two in Geneva over the weekend.
As shown below, SPY is set to open above its March highs and back in positive territory since Election Day last November.
Stocks most dependent on China for cheap imports are soaring this morning. Below is a look at the pre-market moves for stocks in some of the “tariff losers” baskets we’ve highlighted in the last five weeks. Wayfair (W) is up the most at 16.2%, followed by RH (+15.6%) and elf Beauty (+10.2%). Best Buy (BBY), Yeti (YETI) and SharkNinja (SN) are all up 8%+ as well.
Brunch Reads – 5/11/25
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
Kasparov and the Computer: On May 11, 1997, IBM’s Deep Blue, a supercomputer designed specifically for chess, defeated Garry Kasparov, widely considered the greatest chess player of all time, in a six-game match. It was the first time a computer beat a reigning world champion, which ended 2-1 with three draws.
Kasparov had held the world title since 1985. He had previously played and beaten an earlier version of Deep Blue in 1996, winning 4–2 after a brief scare in Game 1. But IBM upgraded the machine substantially for the 1997 rematch, doubling its processing power to evaluate around 200 million positions per second. It also included a team of grandmasters who helped fine-tune its evaluation algorithms between games.
The 1997 match began in New York City, where Deep Blue took Game 1, but Kasparov rebounded with a win in Game 2. In Game 2, Kasparov believed the machine had made a move so nuanced that it must have been aided by a human. The turning point came in Game 5, a tense draw in which Kasparov, showing uncharacteristic nervousness, offered an early draw in a promising position. Then, in Game 6, Deep Blue shocked the world by dismantling Kasparov in just 19 moves. Visibly agitated, Kasparov accused IBM of foul play and demanded access to the computer’s logs and a rematch. IBM declined and disbanded the Deep Blue project shortly after. While the victory was not proof of consciousness or human-like thought, it was symbolic in the sense that a machine had outplayed a human at the apex of intellectual competition.
AI & Technology
Zuckerberg Says in Response to Loneliness Epidemic, He Will Create Most of Your Friends Using Artificial Intelligence (Futurism)
Mark Zuckerberg says the average American has fewer than three friends and sees AI chatbots as a way to fill that social gap. In a recent interview, he floated the idea that people might one day bond more with bots than with other humans, even as Meta’s own AI tools are criticized for crossing serious ethical lines and exposing underage users to inappropriate content. Is the push for AI “friends” about solving loneliness, or just Meta’s latest attempt to monetize human disconnection? [Link]
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Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report – May 2025
Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report is an analysis of a huge consumer survey that we run each month. Our goal with this survey is to track trends across the economic and financial landscape in the US. Using the results from our proprietary monthly survey, we dissect and analyze all of the data and publish the Consumer Pulse Report, which we sell access to on a subscription basis. Sign up for a 30-day free trial to our Bespoke Consumer Pulse subscription service. With a trial, you’ll get coverage of consumer electronics, social media, streaming media, retail, autos, and much more. The report also has numerous proprietary US economic data points that are extremely timely and useful for investors.
We’ve just released our most recent monthly report to Pulse subscribers, and it’s definitely worth the read if you’re curious about the health of the consumer in the current market environment. Start a 30-day free trial for a full breakdown of all of our proprietary Pulse economic indicators.
Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Affirm (AFRM)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Affirm’s (AFRM) Q3 2025 earnings call.
Affirm (AFRM) is a fintech company in the Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) space, allowing consumers to split purchases into installments, with no late fees or hidden charges. It partners with major merchants across industries like retail, electronics, travel, and fitness to provide both 0% APR promotional financing and interest-bearing loans at checkout. Affirm also issues the Affirm Card, a hybrid debit-credit product that extends the brand’s reach beyond merchant integrations to make it a challenger in consumer payments. The company delivered 36% GMV growth YoY and saw its strongest month of growth in March (+40% GMV), driven by rising demand for 0% APR financing and broad-based merchant traction. Management highlighted strong repayment trends and increased prepayments, signaling healthy consumer credit. The Affirm Card added features like foreign transactions. Executives emphasized the app’s dual role in repayment and offer discovery, while AI investments are improving dispute resolution and contract review. New partnerships with Costco and a renewed Shopify deal further strengthened Affirm’s network. The stock fell 14% on 5/9 despite the stronger-than-anticipated results on weaker guidance…
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Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Cloudflare (NET)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Cloudflare’s (NET) Q1 2025 earnings call.
Cloudflare (NET) is a global cloud services provider that secures and accelerates everything connected to the Internet. Its platform offers content delivery, DDoS mitigation, Internet security, and edge computing solutions through a globally distributed network spanning over 310 cities. Cloudflare’s customer base ranges from startups to some of the world’s largest enterprises and government agencies. The company sits in front of roughly 20% of Internet traffic, providing unique insights into global web activity and cyber threats. NET reported revenue up 27% YoY to $479.1M and record growth in large customers. The quarter was highlighted by the company’s largest-ever deal (over $100M) due largely to its Workers developer platform, and record signings in both $1M+ and $5M+ cohorts. Workers and AI products saw explosive usage growth, with inference requests up 4,000%. Cloudflare also closed its longest SASE (Secure Access Service Edge) deal and noted that tariffs and hardware complexity are accelerating changes to its software-defined solutions. After beating revenue estimates, NET shares rose 7.5% on 5/9…
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 5/9/25
The Bespoke Report – 5/9/25 – Limbo
To read our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. In this week’s report, we break down the market’s action this week and what it might portend for the future. Give it a read!
