Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 2/20/26 – Busy Data Day
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“I have a theory that the truth is never told during the nine-to-five hours.” – Hunter Thompson
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Ahead of a busy economic data day and possibly an important Supreme Court ruling, equity futures are modestly lower across the board, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all indicated lower by about 0.20%. The 10-year yield is down close to two basis points to 4.06%, and crude oil is fractionally lower as comments from the President suggest that if there is going to be a strike against Iran, it won’t come this weekend, and even if there is, it’s likely to be targeted initially. Gold prices are up 1% and back about $5,000, and Bitcoin is also fractionally higher.
Japanese stocks traded 1.1% lower and closed out the week with a modest decline, and the Hang Seng traded down by the same amount. South Korean stocks bucked the trend, though, and rallied more than 2%, finishing the week up 5.5% in just two days of trading!
European stocks are finishing the week on a more positive note, with the STOXX 600 up 0.4% and taking its WTD gain to more than 1.5%. Every major index in the region is higher on the session, and except Germany, they’re all up over 1% for the week. Flash PMI for the manufacturing sector was better than expected, while the Services PMI was slightly weaker. On the inflation front, PPI in Germany showed an unexpected decline of 0.6% versus forecasts for an increase of 0.3%.
Yesterday marked the unofficial end of earnings season, with Walmart (WMT) reporting before the open. While the equity market had a muted to modestly negative performance this earnings season, there were plenty of earnings triple plays (companies that reported better than expected earnings and revenues and raised guidance). Since earnings season started in early January, 100 companies reported triple plays, and in the chart below, we break those names out by sector.
While it’s been one of the worst-performing sectors this year, the Technology sector has easily had the most earnings triple plays with 43. That’s more than double the next closest sector – Industrials, and is also more than the total of the other top four sectors combined! At the other end of the spectrum, not a single stock in the Energy sector reported a triple play, while the Materials and Utilities sectors each had one apiece.
Within the Technology sector, it’s also interesting to look at where the Triple Plays have come from. Leading the way, 17 of the tech sector Triple Plays have come from semiconductor companies, which should come as no surprise, given the group’s performance this year. Next on the list, though, is software with 13 stocks. Even as the group has been slaughtered this year, there’s no shortage of companies in the group exceeding results and raising guidance. This illustrates again that while these companies may not yet be feeling the impact of AI on their businesses, it’s the long-term that investors are more worried about.
The Closer – Doves Fly, Breadth Disconnect, Repo – 2/19/26
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with some commentary regarding the latest pivots in Fedspeak in addition to the latest earnings reports (page 1). Next up, we show this year’s disconnect between price and breadth (page 2) before switching into an overview of the latest happenings in repo markets (page 3). We then round out tonight’s report with reviews of trade data (page 4) and regional manufacturing and jobless claims figures (page 5).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
The Triple Play Report: 2/13/26 – 2/18/26
An earnings triple play is a stock that reports earnings and manages to 1) beat analyst EPS estimates, 2) beat analyst sales estimates, and 3) raise forward guidance. You can read more about “triple plays” at Investopedia.com where they’ve given Bespoke credit for popularizing the term. We like triple plays as an indication that a company’s business is firing on all cylinders, with better-than-expected results and an improving outlook. A triple play is indicative of positive “fundamental momentum” instead of pure fundamentals, and there are always plenty of names with both high and low valuations on our quarterly list.
Bespoke’s Triple Play Report covers what each company does, what this quarter’s results say about their growth outlooks, and their histories of delivering triple plays. Bespoke’s Triple Play Report is available at the Bespoke Institutional level only. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read today’s Triple Play Report. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
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Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes all information contained in these reports to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in these reports or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. This is not personalized advice. Investors should do their own research and/or work with an investment professional when making portfolio decisions. As always, past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results. Bespoke representatives or clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.
B.I.G. Tips – Earnings Triple Plays Recap: Q4 2025
During the just-completed Q4 2025 earnings reporting period, there were a total of 98 earnings triple plays out of just over 1,100 individual quarterly earnings reports from US-listed stocks. That’s 110 fewer than the 208 triple plays we saw during the prior earnings reporting period.
What is a triple play? When a stock reports quarterly earnings, it registers a “triple play” when it beats analyst EPS estimates, beats analyst revenue estimates, and raises forward guidance. We coined the term back in the mid-2000s, and you can read more about it at Investopedia.com. We consider triple plays to be the cream of the crop of earnings season, and we’re constantly finding new long-term opportunities from this basket of names each quarter. You can track the newest earnings triple plays on a daily basis at our Triple Plays page if you’re a Bespoke Premium or Bespoke Institutional member.
To read our quarterly triple play recap and see some of the triple plays with intriguing price charts at the moment, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium!
Bespoke’s Weekly Sector Snapshot — 2/19/26
Best Start for Consumer Staples in 35+ Years
Through the first 30 trading days of 2026, the Consumer Staples sector gained 15.6%. That’s easily the best start to a year for Staples since at least 1990 (when our daily sector price data begins). Prior to 2026, the strongest start to a year for Staples was a 9.2% gain through the first 30 trading days of 1997.
While Consumer Staples has been soaring, the cyclical Consumer Discretionary sector has been declining, falling 5% through the year’s first 30 trading days.
With Staples up 15% and Discretionary down 5%, the 20 percentage point spread between the two is a new record through 30 trading days (going back to 1990). No other years have been even remotely close.
The surge in Staples to start 2026 has left the defensive Staples sector ETF (XLP) up more than Consumer Discretionary (XLY) over the last twelve months. The chart below resembles the classic “tortoise and the hare” race, doesn’t it? Staples slowly moved sideways throughout the first half of 2025 and then slowed even more in the last five months of the year. Discretionary plummeted to start 2025 during the tariff tantrum but then decided to start competing after the first quarter mile. Discretionary surged past Staples last August and didn’t look back. That is until the calendar year turned to 2026. While Discretionary took a breather, Staples came from behind down the final stretch to win the race! Of course, in markets, the race is never over, but you get the point.
The reason Consumer Discretionary has been so weak is because its two largest stocks have struggled to start the year. As shown below, Amazon (AMZN) is down 11.5% YTD, while Tesla (TSLA) is down 8.5%. These two stocks have a combined market cap that’s nearly $1 trillion bigger than the combined market cap of the remaining 46 stocks in the sector!
Of the 15 largest Consumer Discretionary stocks shown in the graphic below, ten are actually up on the year.
The performance of the 15 largest Consumer Staples stocks to start the year has been eye-popping. Each of the seven largest Consumer Staples stocks are up 10%+ on the year, while all 15 stocks listed are in the green.
There’s a way to get around the top-heaviness of the market, though, and that’s by focusing on the equal-weight versions of sector and index ETFs.
As shown below, the equal-weight versions of Consumer Staples (RSPS) and Consumer Discretionary (RSPD) are much more closely aligned over the past year. That’s because the average stock in the Consumer Discretionary sector has done better than Amazon (AMZN) and Tesla (TSLA) in recent months.
If you’d like to simply bet on the average stock in a sector rather than having more exposure to the biggest stocks, we created the graphic below that lists ETF options for both cap-weighted and equal-weighted S&P 500 sectors.
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Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Leidos (LDOS)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Leidos’ (LDOS) Q4 2025 earnings call.
Leidos (LDOS) is a national security, defense technology, and health services company serving the US Department of War, the intelligence community, the Veterans Administration, the FAA, and allied governments. It operates across integrated air defense systems, cyber, space payloads, unmanned maritime vehicles, IT modernization, energy infrastructure engineering, and managed health services. LDOS delivered a strong 2025 despite a six-week government shutdown, growing adjusted EBITDA margins 120 basis points to 14.1% and non-GAAP EPS by 17%. The company posted back-to-back quarters of 1.3x book-to-bill, with $7 billion in awards slipping from Q4 into 2026 and $20 billion in pending awards. Management is tripling CapEx to $350 million to scale production on IFPC (Indirect Fire Protection Capability) missile defense, hypersonics, and maritime autonomy programs, while negotiating co-investment frameworks with the Department of War. The $2.4 billion ENTRUST acquisition positions Leidos as a leading US energy engineering firm. Guidance calls for up to 4% revenue growth in 2026, accelerating toward double digits by year-end, with Golden Dome funding and FAA modernization flagged as upside catalysts not yet incorporated into guidance. LDOS reported better-than-expected EPS on weaker revenue, as the stock fell 8% on 2/17…
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Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Toll Brothers (TOL)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Toll Brothers’ (TOL) Q1 2026 earnings call.
Toll Brothers (TOL) is the largest luxury homebuilder in the United States, serving affluent move-up, move-down, and first-time buyers at an average delivered price of roughly $977,000. The company offers a unique build-to-order model with Design Studios where buyers customize finishes, generating approximately $212,000 in upgrades per home. TOL beat guidance across nearly all metrics in its Q1, delivering $1.85 billion in revenue and growing EPS 25% year-over-year to $2.19. Management struck a tone of cautious optimism: web traffic, foot traffic, and deposits are all up modestly versus last year heading into spring, though it is early. Incentives held flat at 8% of sales price for the third straight quarter, and build costs remain stable with no tariff impact materializing. Regionally, the Boston-to-South Carolina corridor and California are outperforming, while Tampa, Atlanta, San Antonio, and the Pacific Northwest lag. Notably, visa uncertainty is creating a modest pause among immigrant homebuyers nationally. The company is targeting 8-10% community count growth backed by 75,000 controlled lots. TOL was up as much as 2% on 2/18 after beating estimates, but slid intraday to roughly 2.5% in the red…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for TOL by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Wingstop (WING)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Wingstop’s (WING) Q4 2025 earnings call.
Wingstop (WING) is a highly franchised, asset-light restaurant chain specializing in cooked-to-order chicken wings and tenders with over a dozen bold flavors. With over 3,000 locations globally and average unit volumes of $2 million on an upfront investment of roughly $580,000, the company offers some of the strongest unit economics in the restaurant industry. Wingstop posted its first negative same-store sales in 22 years, down 3% for 2025 and 5.8% in Q4, as macro pressures weighed on lower-income consumers, particularly at lunch and snack dayparts. Despite this, the company opened a record 493 restaurants globally, grew system-wide sales 12% to over $5 billion, and increased adjusted EBITDA 15%. The AI-enabled Smart Kitchen platform is now installed across all domestic restaurants, with roughly 50% consistently hitting 10-minute ticket times, and a 10 percentage point improvement already in early 2026. A loyalty pilot showed 50% enrollment among active guests and a 7% frequency lift. Management guided 2026 comps at flat to low-single-digit growth and 15-16% unit growth. WING reported better-than-expected revenue on weaker EPS as shares climbed 10.8% on 2/18…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for WING by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below: