The Closer – FOMC Preview, Retail Sales, Canada CPI – 9/17/24
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with a preview of the FOMC including a look at the tones of recent Fedspeak and how markets have been pricing rates (page 1). We then review the latest retail sales and industrial production data (page 2) in addition to CPI from North of the border (page 3). We close out with a recap of the 20-year bond reopening (Page 4).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Daily Sector Snapshot — 9/17/24
Bespoke Stock Scores — 9/17/24
Chart of the Day: The Time for a Cut Has Come
B.I.G. Tips – Retail Sales Rise Again
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 9/17/24 – Seven in a Row?
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“I don’t carry the burden of the past or the madness of the future. I live in the present.” Narendra Modi
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Futures are in positive territory today as the S&P 500 looks to extend its streak of daily gains to seven in a row. It’s a relatively busy morning for economic data, and Retail Sales just kicked things off. The headline report came in better than expected at +0.1% m/m versus expectations for a decline of 0.2%. Not only that but last month’s report was revised slightly higher from 1.0% to 1.1%. While the headline report was better than expected, stripping out autos and gas, the numbers were somewhat weaker than expected. All in all, this was a decent report at the surface and doesn’t suggest that the consumer is showing signs of significant weakness.
Outside of the Retail Sales report, we’ll get Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization at 9:15 Eastern and then Business Inventories and Homebuilder sentiment at 10 AM.
One of the topics covered in the commentary section of today’s Morning Lineup is economic data from India covering trade and wholesale prices. Today is also the birthday of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi who turned 74 years old today. While not directly connected, Modi no doubt is appreciative of the fact that Indian equities traded at all-time highs yesterday ahead of his 74th birthday. Indian stocks have also done right by US investors as well. The chart below shows the performance of India’s Sensex over the last 12 months in dollar-adjusted terms, and during that span, the SENSEX is up 21.5%
Relative to other international stocks, India has also done well under Modi. The chart below compares the performance of Indian equities to other major global equity benchmarks on a dollar-adjusted basis since Modi assumed office in May 2014. With a gain of 138%, no other region of the world has come even close. Japan, the next best-performing market is up ‘only 81%’ while Europe is up just 22% – or about the same that India has gained in just the last year! Relative to other BRIC countries, India is also blowing both Brazil and China out of the water.
While India may be ahead of the rest of the world, it still trails the US. With a gain of 195%, the S&P 500 leads India by 57 percentage points.
The Closer – Dividends, Reopenings, Positioning – 9/16/24
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with a dive into our new dividend stock index (page 1) followed by a preview of upcoming Treasury sales (page 2). We then review the latest positioning data (pages 3-6).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Daily Sector Snapshot — 9/16/24
Chart of the Day – Riding the Elevator Both Ways
Altria Group (MO)
Altria Group (MO) — formerly Philip Morris — is one of the world’s largest producers and marketers of cigarettes and other tobacco products. However, the company’s current motto is “Moving Beyond Smoking” as it pushes smoke-free products and harm reduction.
Regardless of your stance on tobacco stocks, Altria Group (MO) still does more than $20 billion in annual revenues and has a market cap of just under $90 billion. As shown below, the stock has also been trending steadily higher for the last six months.
While Altria has seen share-price appreciation over the last six months, it is most known for its high-dividend yield. MO currently has a dividend yield of more than 7.5%, which makes it the second-highest-yielding stock in the S&P 500 behind Walgreens (WBA). According to Insider Monkey, Altria has increased its dividend for 54 consecutive years, making it one of the longest-running Dividend Aristocrats.
Hypothetically, had you invested $10,000 in Altria Group (MO) shares at the start of 1990, re-invested dividends, and held to today, your shares would currently be worth roughly $1,041,000. That’s a gain of more than 10,000%!
A huge chunk of those gains since 1990 have come from re-investing dividends. As shown below, MO shares are only up 1,549% (8.4% annualized) in price over this time frame compared to its total return of more than 10,000% (14.3% annualized). It will be tough to find a better example of the compounding effects of re-investing big dividend payments than MO. Using the Rule of 72, with no share price appreciation at all, MO’s annual dividend yield of 7.8% would double your money in just over 9 years.
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