Albeit the move has been mostly recovered by now, the past week’s pullback from fresh all-time highs has resulted in investor sentiment shifting lower.  The latest gauge from the weekly AAII survey showed 41.4% of respondents reporting as bullish, down from a 30-week high of 45.0% headed into the July 4th weekend.

The drop in bullish sentiment meant that an increased share of responses shifted towards bearishness. 35.6% of respondents reported as bearish, up 2.5 percentage points week over week.

Given these readings, the predominant sentiment is still bullish as the bull-bear spread remains positive for a second week in a row at 5.8 points.

Even though the bull-bear spread was lower this week and current levels are far from earning any superlatives, the still positive reading did mark the first back-to-back positive readings in the spread since the last week of January.  Alternatively, that snaps a 22-week-long streak without back-to-back weeks of positive bull-bear spreads.  As shown below, such a streak has been uncommon. Throughout the history of the survey since 1987, there have only been five streaks that have gone on for longer.

In addition to the usual weekly sentiment gauges, this week also saw an update in the Schwab Trading Activity Index (STAX). Formerly the TD Ameritrade Investor Movement index, before the merger between the two companies, the index differs from other sentiment gauges that tend to ask if an investor is bullish or bearish. Instead, this index uses a proprietary system to assign sentiment scores to retail investors based on their actual account activity. As shown, the June reading only indicated a modest improvement in sentiment after falling for three months in a row.  In other words, since the April lows, retail investors had been fading the S&P 500’s recovery back up to record highs, with June only marking a minor shift back toward bullishness among this investor base.

The report also details a few anecdotes about single stocks popular among retail clients. This month’s report highlighted that—again contrary to the changes in these stocks’ prices—recent Tech favorites saw major net selling like NVIDIA (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Coinbase (COIN). On the other hand, other major Tech names like Tesla (TSLA) and Amazon (AMZN) were noted as seeing consistent purchases among retail investors.

Putting sentiment readings together, below we aggregate this STAX index with the AAII survey and two other weekly sentiment readings: the NAAIM Exposure index and Investors Intelligence survey.  Together and equally weighted, the average across these indicators pointed to continued improvements in sentiment in June, and readings for so far in July would point to further improvements down the road.

Beef prices continue to sizzle.  Live cattle futures just closed at a new all-time high, climbing to $2.20 per pound after a multi-year rally that’s been quietly unfolding since mid-2020.  While inflation has cooled in many parts of the economy, the beef market remains red-hot, driven by a combination of shrinking cattle herds, ongoing drought conditions in key ranching states, and steady consumer demand for beef across both retail and food service channels.

What makes this even more striking is how cheap corn, the primary feedstock for cattle, has remained in relative terms.  A long-term chart of the cattle-to-corn ratio shows that beef has never been this expensive relative to feed costs, with the spread hitting its highest point in over six decades.  For cattle producers, this is an extremely favorable setup: high output prices and low input costs translate into wide margins.

This divergence has interesting implications.  Publicly traded meat processors could benefit from stronger margins.  It also speaks to broader commodity cycles: while grain prices have cooled post-Ukraine shock, protein prices have marched higher.  If you’re looking for margin tailwinds in the ag and food supply chain, the beef market is one to chew on.

Since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, the stock market has seen an explosion of interest in companies exposed to artificial intelligence, digital transformation, and infrastructure innovation.  While the average stock across the Russell 1,000 and S&P 1,500 is up roughly 50% since 11/30/22 when ChatGPT launched, there are 30 stocks that have gained more than 400%.

The list of 400%+ gainers since AI’s pivotal moment highlights several key themes driving outsized performance.  At the top is Carvana (CVNA) with a staggering 4,386% gain, an example of a distressed digital-first business that rebounded sharply as cost-cutting, improved execution, and investor optimism around e-commerce platforms collided.  Similarly, Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) and AppLovin (APP) reflect how early-stage biotech breakthroughs and ad-tech optimization powered by AI can supercharge investor enthusiasm, with both stocks up over 2,700%.

The AI boom itself is strongly represented: NVIDIA (NVDA), the GPU powerhouse enabling nearly all modern AI workloads, has surged 846%, while companies like Super Micro Computer (SMCI) and Vertiv (VRT) have ridden the infrastructure tailwinds, supplying AI servers and data center power/cooling systems.  On the software side, Palantir (PLTR) and Meta (META) are capitalizing on surging enterprise demand for AI-driven insights and next-gen consumer experiences.

Beyond AI, this list captures a broader tech renaissance: MicroStrategy’s (MSTR) embrace of Bitcoin, Coinbase (COIN) benefiting from crypto’s resurgence, and Duolingo (DUOL) leveraging gamified ed-tech all reflect how tech adaptability is being rewarded.  Meanwhile, healthcare and biotech have seen some stealth rallies too, with Hims & Hers (HIMS), Protagonist Therapeutics (PTGX), and ADMA Biologics (ADMA) riding innovation in drug delivery, telehealth, and immune therapies.  Even travel and leisure names like Royal Caribbean (RCL) and SkyWest (SKYW) are enjoying massive comebacks as post-pandemic demand meets operating leverage.

In short, the market’s biggest winners since the AI boom began aren’t just about chips and chatbots.  They span digital platforms, infrastructure enablers, health breakthroughs, and comeback stories, all unified by their exposure to innovation, scalability, and renewed investor confidence.

There are another 29 stocks up between 250% and 400% since ChatGPT’s release, which we show in the table below.

The list of 250% to 400% gainers since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022 showcases a diverse group of companies benefiting from technological disruption, infrastructure tailwinds, and consumer trends.  Leading the pack is Affirm (AFRM), up nearly 387%, as investors embrace the resurgence of digital lending and Buy-Now-Pay-Later platforms amid a growing shift in consumer payment behavior.  Industrial heavyweights like Howmet Aerospace (HWM) and General Electric (GE) also made major strides, reflecting renewed investor interest in manufacturing, defense, and energy transition infrastructure.

On the software side, the gains in CrowdStrike (CRWD), Cloudflare (NET), and Guidewire (GWRE) highlight how enterprise IT security and insurance software remain core beneficiaries of the digital transformation.  Consumer-facing names like Netflix (NFLX) and DoorDash (DASH) continue to outperform as scale, brand loyalty, and subscription models drive durable growth.

Altogether, many of these names may not have made headlines like the mega-cap AI leaders, but their gains reflect a broader, powerful undercurrent of digital acceleration and operational leverage across the economy.

The list of biggest decliners since ChatGPT’s release in November 2022 paints a sobering picture of sectors and business models that have struggled to gain traction in a rapidly shifting market landscape.  Solar energy names have been hit the hardest, with SolarEdge (SEDG) and Enphase Energy (ENPH) each down over 85%, victims of rising rates, margin compression, and a post-IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) hangover that failed to meet investor hype.  These moves show how even long-term secular themes like clean energy can suffer during periods of tightening financial conditions and execution hiccups.

Other notable losers include AMN Healthcare (AMN) and Acadia Healthcare (ACHC), which struggled as labor costs and reimbursement pressures weighed on the post-pandemic healthcare sector.  Consumer-facing brands like MGP Ingredients (MGPI), Helen of Troy (HELE), and Capri Holdings (CPRI) saw sharp drawdowns, reflecting broader concerns around slowing discretionary spending and inventory issues.  On the industrial side, stocks like Lucid (LCID) and Forward Air (FWRD) highlight the risks of capital intensity and poor cost control, while ZoomInfo (GTM) and Ziff Davis (ZD) show how some B2B tech and digital media firms are being rerated lower in a more selective market for growth.

Earlier today in our Morning Lineup sent to clients, we noted the fact that major metals were all up sharply on the year.  With copper’s surge on Tuesday, it was up an impressive 41.2% YTD, but still trailed platinum’s monster gain of 55.6%.  While in any other year, the 25%+ gains in gold and silver would be impressive, but they look modest next to the gains in the other two, and the 5.85% gain for the S&P 500 almost looks pathetic.

The charts below show the YTD change in all four metals through July 8th of each year since 1990.

Again, while gold is up less than any of the other four metals this year, through yesterday’s close, the only other year with a larger YTD gain was in 2016. The only other year it was up over 20% was in 2006 (22.3%).

Platinum’s 55.6% gain is easily a record through this point in the year. In fact, it’s double the prior record of 27.8% that was reached in 2006 and 2008. The only other year that platinum gained more than 20% YTD through 7/8 was in 2000 (23.6%) and 2016 (23.4%).

Silver and copper have both experienced 20%+ YTD gains through 7/8 more than gold and platinum. Silver had a larger YTD gain last year and has now had six 20%+ YTD gains since 1990. Copper’s 41.2% gain this year ranks as the best since 2009 (53.1%) and is the seventh time that the commodity has rallied more than 20% YTD.

While all four commodities have experienced other YTD gains of 25%+, this year is the first time all four have rallied 25%+ YTD through 7/8 in the same year. The only time they ever all simultaneously rallied 20%+ YTD was in 2006, and the only other year when all four were even up 10% YTD at this point in the year was in 2008. Other years since 1990 have seen big runs in the metals, but none of them have been quite like the 25%+ across the board gains in 2025.

Fossil Group (FOSL) was one of the biggest post-financial crisis winners in the market, with its stock surging to a post-IPO gain of more than 8,000% at its highs in the mid-2010s.  The company had built a dominant brand in watches, and investors rewarded it with a meteoric run that outpaced just about everything else at the time.  But as the chart below shows, that entire move ultimately proved fleeting.  Today, FOSL is up just 6% since its IPO in 1993, while the S&P 500 is up more than 2,500%.  So what happened?

The turning point came in September 2014 when Apple unveiled the Apple Watch.  At the time, the product hadn’t launched yet and there was still plenty of debate over whether consumers would embrace wearable tech.  But investors didn’t wait to find out.  FOSL’s stock started dropping almost immediately and has never recovered.  As Apple’s ecosystem expanded, Fossil’s relevance shrank, and the stock followed.

Fossil wasn’t a company in obvious decline when the Apple Watch was announced.  In fact, its fundamentals were still strong.  But the market is forward-looking, and it doesn’t wait for earnings reports to adjust.  Just the idea of a better product from a bigger competitor was enough to spark a mass exodus.  While consumers were still deciding if they needed a smartwatch, Wall Street had already moved on.

That’s why this chart matters for today’s winners.  Any of the stocks leading the market higher right now could be like Fossil in 2014.  Massive runs, strong fundamentals, and dominant positions in a booming narrative.  But disruption rarely announces itself in advance, and today’s leaders don’t have to stumble on their own to fall out of favor.  All it takes is a shift in the landscape, whether it’s a better chip, a new platform, or a change in demand.

No one’s saying today’s market leaders are doomed, but Fossil’s chart is a reminder of how quickly things can turn, and how the market often sees it before the headlines do.  Even an 8,000% gain can vanish if the narrative flips.  It’s a good reason to stay humble and diversified and always think about what’s coming around the corner.