Fossil Group (FOSL) was one of the biggest post-financial crisis winners in the market, with its stock surging to a post-IPO gain of more than 8,000% at its highs in the mid-2010s.  The company had built a dominant brand in watches, and investors rewarded it with a meteoric run that outpaced just about everything else at the time.  But as the chart below shows, that entire move ultimately proved fleeting.  Today, FOSL is up just 6% since its IPO in 1993, while the S&P 500 is up more than 2,500%.  So what happened?

The turning point came in September 2014 when Apple unveiled the Apple Watch.  At the time, the product hadn’t launched yet and there was still plenty of debate over whether consumers would embrace wearable tech.  But investors didn’t wait to find out.  FOSL’s stock started dropping almost immediately and has never recovered.  As Apple’s ecosystem expanded, Fossil’s relevance shrank, and the stock followed.

Fossil wasn’t a company in obvious decline when the Apple Watch was announced.  In fact, its fundamentals were still strong.  But the market is forward-looking, and it doesn’t wait for earnings reports to adjust.  Just the idea of a better product from a bigger competitor was enough to spark a mass exodus.  While consumers were still deciding if they needed a smartwatch, Wall Street had already moved on.

That’s why this chart matters for today’s winners.  Any of the stocks leading the market higher right now could be like Fossil in 2014.  Massive runs, strong fundamentals, and dominant positions in a booming narrative.  But disruption rarely announces itself in advance, and today’s leaders don’t have to stumble on their own to fall out of favor.  All it takes is a shift in the landscape, whether it’s a better chip, a new platform, or a change in demand.

No one’s saying today’s market leaders are doomed, but Fossil’s chart is a reminder of how quickly things can turn, and how the market often sees it before the headlines do.  Even an 8,000% gain can vanish if the narrative flips.  It’s a good reason to stay humble and diversified and always think about what’s coming around the corner.

We’re just five trading days into the second half of 2025, but so far this month, the average stock in the large-cap Russell 1,000 is up a solid 1.84%.  If you did well in the first half of the year, however, you’re likely seeing red, while those that lagged in the first half are finally seeing some green.

The chart below highlights a sharp reversal in investor behavior so far this month, with a clear rotation out of the first-half winners and into the biggest losers.  Looking at average month-to-date returns for Russell 1,000 stocks, the 20 best-performing names from the first half are down an average of 2.05%, while the top 50 and 100 from the first half are also in negative territory this month.  In contrast, the worst performers from the first half are seeing a surge in buying interest: the 20 worst names are up an average of 5.41% MTD, followed by the 50 worst at 4.76%, and the 100 worst at 4.17%.  This pattern reflects classic mean reversion trading, where investors rotate into beaten-down names in hopes of a rebound, while locking in profits on stocks that have already had big runs.  It also suggests that investors are bottom-fishing in laggards in search for value or speculative bounce plays.  Whether this is a short-term rebalancing or the start of a more sustained shift in market leadership remains to be seen, but it’s interesting that we saw similar pullbacks in first-half market leaders in July 2023 and July 2024 as well.

Of the 25 worst-performing Russell 1,000 stocks in the first half, all but one are up so far this month.  On average, these stocks fell 44.7% in the first half, and they’re up 4.9% already in the first five trading days of July.

Take a look at the first-half losers below, of which you’ll likely be familiar with most.

Below are price charts of the five biggest stocks on the list of first-half losers shown above: Avantor (AVTR), Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Lululemon (LULU), Trade Desk (TTD), and UnitedHealth (UNH).  All five fell off a cliff at some point in the first half, but they’re currently attempting to round out a bottom.  Trade Desk (TTD) has been trying to turn things around for the longest, as it bottomed back in April and now has a rising 50-day moving average again.

Of the 25 best performers in the first half, only six are in the green so far this month: CAR, PLTR, CVNA, ATI, ALGM, and UBER.  On average, these stocks, which all gained at least 50% in the first half, are down 1.3% month-to-date.  None are down more than 8%, though, so the selling hasn’t been that extreme.

With earnings season on the horizon, maybe some investors are cashing in on high-beta winners to try and avoid earnings blow-ups.

Early this morning, the NFIB published their June report on small business sentiment. We discussed some details of the report in today’s Morning Lineup, but to recap, the headline reading came in slightly lower and inline with expectations at 98.6.  As we often note, this survey is politically sensitive with a bias towards Republican administrations. As such, the index surged in the wake of the election, and after pulling back significantly earlier this year, it now remains in the middle of that range, which is also lower than it was for much of the first Trump administration.

In spite of the minor change to the headline number, there were some interesting findings throughout the rest of the report.  Apart from the headline index, there are parts of the report with less political sensitivity and more economic importance that are concerning. Two such areas with notable weakness were employment and capital expenditures. As shown below, the indices tracking actual changes to those areas of business have fallen sharply in recent months. For employment, current levels are at the weakest since August 2022, and the equivalent index for capital expenditures is down to the lowest reading since August 2022. While those new lows do indicate weakness, the declines could also be in part due to seasonality, with similar summer slumps for both indices observed in the past few years.

Holding the caveat of potential seasonality aside, the report offers additional insights in the form of what firms are spending their capex on.  As shown below, all categories have fallen significantly in the past few months, with particularly sharp declines in June.  The worst declines have been for vehicles and equipment, which are the two largest categories for capex. Vehicles—which is a tariff-impacted area—is tied with the spring of 2020 for the lowest reading of the past decade.  Also worth noting is that additional building or land spending is now at a record low in data going back to early 2014.

The report also includes a look at which problems firms claim to be their most important.  In another concerning data point for economic activity, 10% reported poor sales as their biggest problem in what was the highest reading for this category since March 2021. On the bright side, inflation continues to be a less important problem, as it was cited by a still high but rapidly declining 11% of respondents.

The drop in inflation as the most important problem gives room for other issues to come to the forefront. With tariff concerns front and center, it should come as no surprise that taxes are now the single biggest concern for small businesses, accounting for 19% of answers. When combined with government red tape, the 28% reading is the highest since November 2021.

As noted earlier, the NFIB historically tends to be sensitive to politics, favoiing Republican administrations. That makes the turn higher in tax and red tape concerns more surprising. Other series in the report further indicate a turn away from those political biases, though. As shown below, when it comes to reasons for positive and negative expansion outlooks, fewer firms point to politics as a good reason to expand, and more point to that as a reason for a negative outlook.

Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.

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