Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 5/15/25 – Eco Data Deluge
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“How you begin life is not nearly as important as how you end up.” – Emmitt Smith
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
To view last night’s segment on CNN’s OutFront with Erin Burnett, click on the image below.
After some positive days of market performance, the euphoria surrounding the US-China trade talks has faded a bit as investors focus again on rising rates, with the 10-year treasury yield back above 4.5%. Walmart (WMT) marked the unofficial end to earnings season with better-than-expected earnings on inline revenues, and the stock is up fractionally. The morning is much worse for UnitedHealth (UNH) as that company’s terrible year continues with reports that the company is under criminal investigation related to billing practices in its Medicare Advantage plans. Based on where the stock is trading in the pre-market, shares have lost more than half of their value since April 11th!
While the pace of earnings reports is slowing down, today is one of the busier days in recent memory for economic data with Empire and Philly Fed Manufacturing reports for May, Retail Sales for April, PPI for April, jobless claims, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and Business Inventories. As if that’s not enough, Powell will also be speaking at 8:40 eastern.
As tensions in global trade pushed economic uncertainty to levels rarely seen before, investors couldn’t get their hands on enough gold. At its high for the year on 4/22, front-month gold prices were up over 30% YTD, and Costco (COST) even had to place a one-ounce limit on the amount of gold that its customers could purchase as sales of the yellow metal on its website exceeded $200 million per month.
With the US and China dialing back on trade tensions, markets and investors have let out a giant exhale of relief, and while it has been good for risk assets, gold prices have taken a hit. Overnight, prices dropped as low $3,123 per ounce, representing a decline of 11% from the recent record high. While prices recovered a bit since the lows, gold briefly traded below its 50-day moving average for the first time since early January.
As gold corrects, its price has become increasingly volatile, and large daily moves have become increasingly common. While it traded more than 2% lower on an intraday basis yesterday, it finished the day down just 1.8%. Even though it didn’t have a daily move of 2%, 11 of the last 25 trading days have seen moves of more than 2%, and just recently, the rolling 25-day total was 12. As shown below, 2%+ daily moves haven’t been that clustered together since 2011, and before that, the Financial Crisis.
The Closer – USD, Mega Cap Impact, Best of Breed – 5/14/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start out with a dive into options markets’ extremely bearish bets on the dollar (pages 1 and 2). We then check in on the stagnation in earnings estimates and what that means for valuations (page 3). After a look into how the mega caps have impacted recent price action (page 4), we close out with the latest update on our Best of Breed basket (pages 5 and 6).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
The Triple Play Report — 5/14/25
An earnings triple play is a stock that reports earnings and manages to 1) beat analyst EPS estimates, 2) beat analyst sales estimates, and 3) raise forward guidance. You can read more about “triple plays” at Investopedia.com where they’ve given Bespoke credit for popularizing the term. We like triple plays as an indication that a company’s business is firing on all cylinders, with better-than-expected results and an improving outlook. A triple play is indicative of positive “fundamental momentum” instead of pure fundamentals, and there are always plenty of names with both high and low valuations on our quarterly list.
Bespoke’s Triple Play Report highlights companies that have recently reported earnings triple plays, and it features commentary from management on triple-play conference calls, company descriptions and analysis, and price charts. Bespoke’s Triple Play Report is available at the Bespoke Institutional level only. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read this week’s Triple Play Report, which features 26 new stocks. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
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Evertec (EVTC) is an example of a company that recently reported an earnings triple play after the close on 5/7. The following day, shares rallied 2.5% on the news, extending its streak to four straight share-price gains in reaction to earnings.
Here’s how AI describes the company: Evertec (EVTC) is a financial technology and transaction processing company headquartered in San Juan, Puerto Rico, with operations spanning 26 countries across Latin America and the Caribbean. The company operates through three core segments: Merchant Acquiring, which supports businesses in accepting electronic payments through point-of-sale infrastructure and transaction processing; Payment Processing, where Evertec owns and operates the ATH® debit network and provides ATM, POS, and card network services; and Business Solutions, offering technology outsourcing, core banking platforms, cash processing, and fulfillment services to financial institutions, corporations, and government entities. Processing roughly six billion transactions annually, Evertec plays a vital role in the region’s financial ecosystem. Evertec is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for integrated, electronic financial services throughout Latin America and the Caribbean.
EVTC delivered a strong Q1, with revenue rising 11% YoY to $228.8 million. Merchant Acquiring revenue grew 13% to $38.3 million, benefiting from continued growth in Puerto Rico’s consumer spend and higher transaction volumes. The Payment Processing segment posted $78.4 million in revenue, up 10%, and Business Solutions revenue grew 5% on stable demand for core banking and outsourcing services. EVTC discussed strength in Puerto Rico’s consumer economy, supported by low unemployment, wage growth, and government stimulus tailwinds that have proven more resilient than expected. The company emphasized ATH Móvil’s growing ubiquity in Puerto Rico, with expanding use among small and mid-sized businesses and increased relevance in peer-to-peer and government disbursement channels. In Latin America, EVTC is scaling its payment and core banking solutions with a mix of on-premise and SaaS deployments, while its footprint in Colombia and Chile continues to deepen.
Looking at the snapshot below from our Earnings Explorer, Evertec (EVTC) has been a stronger player against analyst estimates fairly consistently. The company has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time and revenue estimates 87% of the time, and it now has 34 straight revenue beats going all the way back to 2017.
You can read more about EVTC and the 24 other triple plays we covered in our newest report by starting a Bespoke Institutional trial today.
Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes all information contained in these reports to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in these reports or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. This is not personalized advice. Investors should do their own research and/or work with an investment professional when making portfolio decisions. As always, past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results. Bespoke representatives or clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 5/14/25 – Mid Week Rest
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“The only strategy that is guaranteed to fail is not taking risks.” – Mark Zuckerberg
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Meta Platforms (META) founder Mark Zuckerberg turns 41 years old today, and love him or hate him, the man has certainly taken some risks in building META into what it is. That’s also why he has a net worth of over $200 billion, making him one of the richest people in the world!
This week, the market has taken a risk on persona, continuing into the pre-market futures. S&P 500 futures indicate a 27-bps point gain at the open while the Nasdaq is 0.40% higher. There’s not much in the way of earnings-related news to contend with today, the economic calendar is empty, and even the geo-political picture has experienced a bit of a lull. Just what you would expect as we all try to get through the middle of the week.
For the S&P 500, the first two trading days of the week have been notable for two big reasons. First, on Monday, the S&P 500 surged above its 200-DMA for the first time in over a month, as the S&P 500 rallied over 3%. The rally of 3.26% was the largest daily gain on a day when the S&P 500 crossed above its 200-DMA since March 2020. Second, it’s hard to see in the chart, but if you squint hard, you can see that yesterday was the first time in over two months that the S&P 500’s 50 and 200-DMA had an upward slope.
Yesterday’s upward shift in the slope of the 50 and 200-DMAs ended a streak of 56 trading days where both moving averages were sloping downwards. As shown in the chart, the length of that streak was far from extraordinary relative to history. During the 2022 bear market, we went nearly a year where at least one of the moving averages was sloping downwards, and during the financial crisis, the market had a stretch of over 19 months where at least one moving average was downward sloping. While the most recent period may not have been the longest streak with at least one moving average sloping downward, the fact that they are both now sloping upward is positive from a psychological standpoint.
The Closer – Whiplash, Nasdaq’s New Bull, Debt Data Deluge – 5/13/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin by evaluating the market’s whiplash so far year to date (page 1) followed by a look at the Nasdaq establishing a new bull market (page 2). Moving on to economic data, we review the latest CPI release (page 3) followed by a deep dive into the latest credit releases including the SLOOS (pages 4 and 5) and the New York Fed’s report on Household Debt & Credit (pages 6-8).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 5/13/25
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Do you know the only thing that gives me pleasure? It’s to see my dividends coming in.” – John D. Rockefeller
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The S&P 500 rose 3.26% to start the week, which was its biggest Monday gain since April 6th, 2020 when the index rose 7.0% on weekend headlines that the rate of COVID infections was slowing and lockdowns might start to ease.
Yesterday’s rally was driven by an agreement between the US and China to pause steep reciprocal tariffs of 100%+ for at least the next 90 days. The best performing stocks yesterday were names that got hit the hardest during the post-“Liberation Day” crash from April 2nd to April 8th. The worst were the ones that held up best during the Trump-tariff crash. You can see this in the chart below that breaks the S&P into deciles (10 groups of 50 stocks each) based on performance from 4/2 to 4/8. The bars show the average performance yesterday of the stocks in each decile. The three deciles of stocks that did the worst during the tariff crash from 4/2 to 4/8 saw average gains of more than 5% yesterday. The 50 stocks that held up the best from 4/2 to 4/8 actually fell an average of 0.95% yesterday. This clearly highlights yesterday’s rotation out of tariff resistant names into tariff exposed names.
It has taken a gain of more than 17% off the lows for the S&P 500 to finally tick back up into overbought territory:
The Closer – Record Customs Duties, Small Range, Deciles – 5/12/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start with a look at the record share of federal government receipts coming in from customs duties in addition to a technical update of the S&P 500 (page 1). We also make note of the S&P 500’s remarkably tight intraday range despite the 3% gain today (page 2). We then provide a decile breakdown of today’s price action (page 3) before capping off with an update on positioning (pages 4 and 6).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 5/12/25
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from.” – Cormac McCarthy
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
US equity futures are up 3% pre-market on news that the US and China would be pausing tariffs for 90 days after meetings between the two in Geneva over the weekend.
As shown below, SPY is set to open above its March highs and back in positive territory since Election Day last November.
Stocks most dependent on China for cheap imports are soaring this morning. Below is a look at the pre-market moves for stocks in some of the “tariff losers” baskets we’ve highlighted in the last five weeks. Wayfair (W) is up the most at 16.2%, followed by RH (+15.6%) and elf Beauty (+10.2%). Best Buy (BBY), Yeti (YETI) and SharkNinja (SN) are all up 8%+ as well.
Brunch Reads – 5/11/25
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
Kasparov and the Computer: On May 11, 1997, IBM’s Deep Blue, a supercomputer designed specifically for chess, defeated Garry Kasparov, widely considered the greatest chess player of all time, in a six-game match. It was the first time a computer beat a reigning world champion, which ended 2-1 with three draws.
Kasparov had held the world title since 1985. He had previously played and beaten an earlier version of Deep Blue in 1996, winning 4–2 after a brief scare in Game 1. But IBM upgraded the machine substantially for the 1997 rematch, doubling its processing power to evaluate around 200 million positions per second. It also included a team of grandmasters who helped fine-tune its evaluation algorithms between games.
The 1997 match began in New York City, where Deep Blue took Game 1, but Kasparov rebounded with a win in Game 2. In Game 2, Kasparov believed the machine had made a move so nuanced that it must have been aided by a human. The turning point came in Game 5, a tense draw in which Kasparov, showing uncharacteristic nervousness, offered an early draw in a promising position. Then, in Game 6, Deep Blue shocked the world by dismantling Kasparov in just 19 moves. Visibly agitated, Kasparov accused IBM of foul play and demanded access to the computer’s logs and a rematch. IBM declined and disbanded the Deep Blue project shortly after. While the victory was not proof of consciousness or human-like thought, it was symbolic in the sense that a machine had outplayed a human at the apex of intellectual competition.
AI & Technology
Zuckerberg Says in Response to Loneliness Epidemic, He Will Create Most of Your Friends Using Artificial Intelligence (Futurism)
Mark Zuckerberg says the average American has fewer than three friends and sees AI chatbots as a way to fill that social gap. In a recent interview, he floated the idea that people might one day bond more with bots than with other humans, even as Meta’s own AI tools are criticized for crossing serious ethical lines and exposing underage users to inappropriate content. Is the push for AI “friends” about solving loneliness, or just Meta’s latest attempt to monetize human disconnection? [Link]
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Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report – May 2025
Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report is an analysis of a huge consumer survey that we run each month. Our goal with this survey is to track trends across the economic and financial landscape in the US. Using the results from our proprietary monthly survey, we dissect and analyze all of the data and publish the Consumer Pulse Report, which we sell access to on a subscription basis. Sign up for a 30-day free trial to our Bespoke Consumer Pulse subscription service. With a trial, you’ll get coverage of consumer electronics, social media, streaming media, retail, autos, and much more. The report also has numerous proprietary US economic data points that are extremely timely and useful for investors.
We’ve just released our most recent monthly report to Pulse subscribers, and it’s definitely worth the read if you’re curious about the health of the consumer in the current market environment. Start a 30-day free trial for a full breakdown of all of our proprietary Pulse economic indicators.
