The Closer – Powell Comments, Correlation, BoC – 4/16/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with an evaluation of Fed Chair Powell’s comments today (page 1) followed by a look into the high correlation between stocks (page 2). After that, we dive into the latest earnings (page 3) followed by the Bank of Canada rate decision and TICS data (page 4). We close out with reviews of today’s NY Fed services data (page 5) and the latest update to industrial production (page 6).
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Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Interactive Brokers (IBKR)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Interactive Brokers’ (IBKR) Q1 2025 earnings call.
Interactive Brokers (IBKR) is a global electronic brokerage firm offering low-cost, high-speed access to stocks, options, futures, forex, bonds, and funds across more than 150 markets. IBKR delivered record net revenues and account growth, adding 279,000 new accounts (up 32% YoY), driven largely by international retail demand, especially in Asia and Europe. Despite a drop in the S&P 500, client activity remained strong, with options volumes up 25%, futures up 16%, and equity share volumes up 47%. Margin balances dipped 12% amid market volatility, but net interest income still rose 3% to $770M. The company expanded its crypto offerings to 11 tokens following regulatory easing and saw overnight trading volumes surge 250% YoY. Tariff-related uncertainty hasn’t dampened global appetite for US stocks, but the stock fell more than 11% on 4/16 on a bottom-line miss…
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Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Prologis (PLD)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Prologis’ (PLD) Q1 2025 earnings call.
Prologis (PLD) is the world’s largest industrial real estate company, owning and operating nearly 1.2 billion square feet of logistics space across the globe. It serves customers, including e-commerce giants, manufacturers, and logistics providers who rely on efficient, strategically located warehouse and distribution facilities. The company is also expanding into high-demand areas like data center infrastructure and renewable energy, with nearly 2 gigawatts of power under development. In Q1, PLD reported it is leasing 58 million square feet and beat expectations on earnings and rents, but held guidance steady due to heightened uncertainty from new global tariffs announced on 4/2. The company reported that over 300 customers are now accelerating shipments, rerouting goods, and demanding short-term storage as trade volatility disrupts planning. Build-to-suit leasing remained strong, with two large deals totaling 1.1 million square feet signed post-4/2. Data center development advanced, with 400 MW added to its advanced-stage pipeline. Management also flagged Mexico, Brazil, and India as rising demand hubs and emphasized that in a fragmented world, inventory duplication will drive the long-term need for warehouse space. On better-than-expected results, PLD shares rose around 2% on 4/16…
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Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: JB Hunt (JBHT)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers JB Hunt’s (JBHT) Q1 2025 earnings call.
JB Hunt (JBHT) is one of the largest surface transportation and logistics companies in North America, offering intermodal, truckload, dedicated contract carriage, brokerage, and final mile delivery. It operates a vast fleet of trucks and containers while partnering closely with railroads to move freight efficiently across long distances. The company posted record Q1 Intermodal volumes (+8% YoY), including 13% growth in its Eastern network and strength in Mexico, but margin repair remains elusive due to pricing pressure and excess capacity. Customers are actively reworking supply chains amid tariff and sourcing uncertainty, prompting more long-term mode shifts from highway to intermodal. Dedicated sales were solid with 260 trucks sold, though decision cycles remain elongated. Final Mile stayed weak in big-ticket categories like furniture and appliances, offset by fulfillment strength in off-price retail. After topping expectations, shares fell as much as 8.6% on 4/16 due to macro uncertainty that could hinder growth…
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/16/25 – Death, Taxes, and New Highs in Gold
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“In seeking truth, you have to get both sides of a story.” – Walter Cronkite
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Trade headlines are weighing on market sentiment this morning as semiconductor stocks are down about 4% in aggregate on the heels of a 6%+ decline in Nvicia (NVDA) due to US government restrictions on the sale of Hopper chips to China. While not having as large of an impact as they have in the past, it’s another indication that uncertainty surrounding trade isn’t going anywhere.
In economic news, Retail Sales were inline with expectations at the headline level but better than expected after stripping out Autos, and February’s readings were also revised higher. On a net basis, this was a strong report as the divergence between hard and soft data continues.
The S&P 500 bounced over 8% from its closing low last week and more than 11% from its intraday low. Despite the rebound, on Monday, the index experienced what technical analysts call a ‘death cross’ where its 50-day moving average (DMA) crossed below its 200-DMA as both have downward slopes.
This was the S&P 500’s first death cross in more than three years (March 2022) and the 25th in its history, dating back to 1928. It’s also the eighth such pattern in the post-financial crisis period, and as shown in the chart below, it followed a nearly 20-year period where there was only one occurrence.
The Closer – Liminal Space, Two Types of Guidance, AI – 4/15/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with commentary regarding the comedown in volatility including a general overview of where markets are (page 1). We then dive into import prices and the latest earnings (page 2) followed by an update on the Empire Manufacturing data released today (page 3). We then finish with a look at the performance of AI stocks (page 4) and where that leaves their valuations (page 5).
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NY Fed Shows Weak Demand and Flying Prices
On Tuesday morning, we got the first update on regional manufacturing activity for April with the release of the New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline reading came in better than expected, rising from a 15-month low of -20 last month to -8.1 in April. While that marks a second straight month of observed contractionary activity, expectations appear even worse. That index fell an enormous 20.1 points month over month for the second-lowest reading in the survey’s history. That month that was worse: September 2001. Regarding the month-over-month move, September 2001 and March 2020 are the only other months with bigger drops.
In the table below, we include a look at the April and March readings across all categories of the report. We include the sequential change and how those all rank in percentiles. As shown, breadth and levels were not too bad for current conditions whereas six-month expectations look disastrous including a handful of record lows and bottom quintile monthly declines.
To quantify the drops across those expectation categories, below we have taken a standard deviation for each category and then averaged across them. As shown, that reading dropped into negative territory this month. In the post-pandemic period, there have been a couple of other months to also see negative readings (in July and November 2022), although this current reading is considerably lower. As such, April’s reading of -0.12 is the worst since April 2020, and before that, only the Great Recession and 2001 saw weaker expectations. Likewise, the more than one standard deviation drop over the past three months marks one of the most rapid declines in expectations on record.
As noted earlier, the drop in expectations indices has led to record lows in some. That applies to new orders and shipment expectations with current condition indices for both categories also remaining in contraction. That would indicate the region’s firms have been observing softening demand, and things are only expected to get worse.
It’s not exactly a silver lining, but not every category has fallen sharply. Two categories in the upper quintile of readings with sharp moves higher in the past month were inflation-related. Prices paid and prices received are both rocketing higher in terms of current conditions and expectations. For current conditions of both categories, this was the most elevated level since August 2022. As for expectations, it was the highest level for prices paid since June 2022, and April 2022 for prices received.
Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Big Banks & Asset Managers
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Q1 2025 earnings calls from Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), and Bank of America (BAC).
Big banks and asset managers delivered solid Q1 results despite macro and policy headwinds. Trading desks were standouts, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley hitting record equities revenue and Bank of America posting $5.6B in sales and trading revenue, its 12th straight quarter of YoY growth. FICC strength was broad, especially in FX and rates. Wealth management momentum remained strong across the board, with Morgan Stanley adding $94B in net new assets, Goldman raising $19B in alternatives, and BlackRock pulling in $84B in net inflows. Clients showed a “wait-and-see” attitude on M&A and capital markets activity, citing policy uncertainty around tariffs, regulation, and the 2025 economic outlook. Most firms trimmed their US GDP forecasts, with Goldman now expecting just 0.5% growth and BAC flagging only a “very slight recession”. Still, commercial and consumer credit performance held steady, though JPMorgan built $973M in reserves and others cited cautious provisioning. Banks continued investing in AI, digital platforms, and efficiency initiatives, with Goldman deploying AI assistants and BAC highlighting tech as a “competitive moat.”…
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – It’s Over – 4/15/25
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“The Titanic hit the iceberg not because they could not see it coming but because they could not change direction.” – Dean Devlin
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It’s over. No, not the tariff tantrum, but the 2024 tax season. If you’ve somehow forgotten to get your taxes done (or file for an extension), you’ve got a few more hours left!
Bespoke’s Paul Hickey was invited on CNBC earlier this morning to discuss markets. You can view the clip here or by clicking on the image below.
While the S&P 500 is down 12% from its highs after making a series of lower lows, the index’s cumulative advance/decline line – which is simply a running sum of the daily number of advancers minus decliners – has held up very well. As shown below, even after the post-Liberation Day market crash, the cumulative A/D line remained above its December lows.
The Closer – Luxury Air Pocket, Rates, Consumers – 4/14/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with the earnings results of luxury goods brands (page 1) followed by a discussion surrounding the rates environment (pages 2 and 3). We also check in on volatility and auto stocks (page 3) before running through the latest NY Fed day (pages 4 and 5).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!