The Closer – Leading Indicators, Policy Rates, Credit Ratings – 5/19/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with the weak reading in leading indicators in addition to an update on global policy rates (page 1). We then show the recovery in AI stock prices (page 2) before pivoting over to a look at the few stocks now holding better credit ratings than the US government (page 3).
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 5/19/25 – And Then There Were None
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“Successive US administrations and Congress have failed to agree on measures to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs.” – Moody’s, 5/16/25
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After being the lone holdout with a AAA credit rating on the sovereign debt of the US, on Friday evening, Moody’s joined Standard and Poor’s and Fitch in downgrading US debt. As you might expect, equity futures are lower and interest rates are higher in response to the news. As Moody’s noted in its statement, the downgrade is the result of ‘successive US administrations’, and the buildup of debt in the US has been a long-running issue. The news, therefore, is surprising to no one, but it still reinforces the problem and brings it to the forefront.
The chart below shows the 10-year US Treasury yield dating back to 2010, with each AAA downgrade notated on the chart. In the case of both the S&P and Fitch downgrades, the actions did little to change the trend in interest rates. When S&P downgraded US debt in 2011, yields were already falling and continued to decline, whereas the Fitch downgrade in 2023 came in the middle of a period when rates were rising. So, while each action garnered headlines, the ratings agencies didn’t tell us anything the market didn’t already know.
Brunch Reads – 5/18/25
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
Seconds to Oblivion: On the morning of May 18, 1980, Mount St. Helens erupted. After weeks of ominous tremors and visible bulging on its north flank, the volcano unleashed a powerful lateral blast, triggered by a magnitude 5.1 earthquake, that flattened 230 square miles of forest in minutes and sent a mushroom cloud of ash 15 miles into the sky. Entire hillsides were scoured clean, rivers clogged with debris, and the once-pristine Spirit Lake was buried beneath mud and fallen trees.
The eruption killed 57 people, including volcanologist David Johnston, who radioed “Vancouver! Vancouver! This is it!” from his observation post seconds before he was engulfed. Ash rained down across the western US, disrupting air travel and darkening skies as far away as Oklahoma. It was the most economically destructive volcanic event in US history at the time.
History
Harvard cut-price Magna Carta ‘copy’ now believed genuine (BBC News)
A dusty manuscript long dismissed as a faded copy has now been revealed to be a genuine 1300 Magna Carta, making it one of the most valuable documents on Earth, tucked away for decades in Harvard Law School’s archives after being bought for just $27.50. Medieval historians David Carpenter and Nicholas Vincent confirmed its authenticity through spectral imaging, handwriting analysis, and precise textual comparison, placing its origin in Appleby, England. With only 24 originals known to survive, and one having sold for $21 million, this rediscovered charter is a historic treasure. [Link]
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The Bespoke Report – 5/16/25 – Cruise Control
To read our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. In this week’s report, we review the technical backdrop for major indices, a strong earnings season, huge outperformance for tech and AI stocks, and the mixed messages sent by economic data this week. Give it a read!
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 5/16/25 – When UNH Gets Sick, the Dow Catches a Cold
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“The most important decision you make is to be in a good mood.” – Voltaire
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The biggest individual stock story of the week and probably of the last year is UnitedHealth Group (UNH). The stock is down 28% this week alone and has been more than cut in half in just a month! It’s hard to remember what was once considered a blue-chip stock falling out of favor so fast.
UNH is also a member (for now) of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and because that index is price-weighted, the stock used to be one of the index’s largest components. That has made its fall from grace even that much more impactful on the index. The chart below shows the Dow’s performance over the last six months, and we have also created a theoretical index price that doesn’t include UNH (green line).
While the DJIA is still 6% below its recent high, without UNH, it would be just 2% from its high, and the spread between the current Dow and the Dow Ex UNH is 4.6% percentage points! From a technical perspective, the Dow would look much better without UNH. Through yesterday’s close, the Dow was still below potential resistance at its late-March/pre-Liberation Day high, but backing out UNH, it cleared those levels earlier this week. Taking out the index’s weakest component involves cherry-picking, but we think it provides some good perspective.
The Closer – Retail Sales, Credit Cards, AI Flies – 5/15/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start with rundowns of the latest PPI, retail sales, and homebuilder sentiment data (page 1). We then update our 5 Fed Composite (pages 2 and 3) before pivoting into jobless claims data (page 4). We then review credit card delinquency rates (page 5) before closing out with an updated look at recent performance of AI stocks (page 6).
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Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Deere (DE)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Deere’s (DE) Q2 2025 earnings call.
Deere (DE) is a global leader in the manufacturing of agricultural, construction, and forestry equipment, serving farmers, builders, and land managers in over 160 countries. Best known for its iconic green and yellow John Deere machinery, the company also provides precision agriculture technologies, subscription-based software, and financial services. Deere is reshaping the productivity of farming and infrastructure development with digital tools like See & Spray and the John Deere Operations Center. With nearly 80% of its US sales coming from domestically built equipment and plans to invest $20 billion in US operations over the next decade, Deere remains a cornerstone of American manufacturing. DE delivered better-than-expected Q2 results, with Equipment Operations margins at 18.8% despite $100M in tariff headwinds. Management highlighted a full-year $500M tariff impact and expanded guidance ranges to reflect trade uncertainty. Precision Ag momentum remains strong. 10,000 global Precision Essentials orders YTD already surpass last year’s total, and See & Spray orders have topped 1,000. Used high-horsepower tractor inventory remains elevated, while combines have normalized. Construction & Forestry is seeing pressure from tariff exposure, but roadbuilding showed record demand at Europe’s Bauma trade show. DE shares were up about 4% on 5/15…
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Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Cisco (CSCO)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Cisco’s (CSCO) Q3 2025 earnings call.
Cisco Systems (CSCO) is a global technology leader that designs and sells networking hardware, software, security solutions, and cloud-based services that power the backbone of the internet and enterprise IT infrastructure. Best known for its switches and routers, Cisco also offers advanced products in cybersecurity, observability, collaboration (like Webex), and now AI infrastructure. The company serves a wide range of customers, from hyperscalers and telecom providers to governments and small businesses, offering the tools to build, secure, and automate digital networks. CSCO beat expectations and surpassed its full-year AI order target a quarter early, hitting over $1B in AI infrastructure orders, including $600M+ in Q3 alone. Orders from webscale customers rose 32%, and enterprise orders grew 22%, driven by demand for Ethernet-based AI systems, Wi-Fi 7, and refreshed routing. Security was another standout, with high double-digit order growth and Splunk landing its largest deal ever. CSCO emphasized momentum in sovereign AI projects like Saudi Arabia’s Humain and capacity constraints, not demand, limiting AI revenue ramp. Tariff impacts are expected to weigh on Q4 margins, but CSCO reported no signs of pull-forward demand. The stock was up about 6% on 5/15 after the triple play report…
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Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Walmart (WMT)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Walmart’s (WMT) Q1 2026 earnings call.
Walmart (WMT) is the world’s largest retailer, operating a global network of hypermarkets, discount department stores, Sam’s Clubs, and e-commerce platforms. With over 10,500 stores in more than 20 countries, Walmart serves a broad consumer base across income levels. The company also runs a rapidly expanding advertising business (Walmart Connect), a membership program (Walmart+), and global marketplaces, providing a unique lens into consumer behavior at scale. WMT delivered a strong quarter despite an increasingly volatile backdrop. Sales grew 4% (constant currency), with e-commerce up 22% and e-commerce operations turning profitable for the first time globally. Membership income rose nearly 15% and advertising revenue jumped 50%. Tariff pressures, especially from China, were a major focus, as the company warned of rising costs on general merchandise while working to shield food prices. On mixed results, the stock fell as much as 3.5% on 5/15, but it made a quicky recovery…
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 5/15/25 – Eco Data Deluge
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“How you begin life is not nearly as important as how you end up.” – Emmitt Smith
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
To view last night’s segment on CNN’s OutFront with Erin Burnett, click on the image below.
After some positive days of market performance, the euphoria surrounding the US-China trade talks has faded a bit as investors focus again on rising rates, with the 10-year treasury yield back above 4.5%. Walmart (WMT) marked the unofficial end to earnings season with better-than-expected earnings on inline revenues, and the stock is up fractionally. The morning is much worse for UnitedHealth (UNH) as that company’s terrible year continues with reports that the company is under criminal investigation related to billing practices in its Medicare Advantage plans. Based on where the stock is trading in the pre-market, shares have lost more than half of their value since April 11th!
While the pace of earnings reports is slowing down, today is one of the busier days in recent memory for economic data with Empire and Philly Fed Manufacturing reports for May, Retail Sales for April, PPI for April, jobless claims, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and Business Inventories. As if that’s not enough, Powell will also be speaking at 8:40 eastern.
As tensions in global trade pushed economic uncertainty to levels rarely seen before, investors couldn’t get their hands on enough gold. At its high for the year on 4/22, front-month gold prices were up over 30% YTD, and Costco (COST) even had to place a one-ounce limit on the amount of gold that its customers could purchase as sales of the yellow metal on its website exceeded $200 million per month.
With the US and China dialing back on trade tensions, markets and investors have let out a giant exhale of relief, and while it has been good for risk assets, gold prices have taken a hit. Overnight, prices dropped as low $3,123 per ounce, representing a decline of 11% from the recent record high. While prices recovered a bit since the lows, gold briefly traded below its 50-day moving average for the first time since early January.
As gold corrects, its price has become increasingly volatile, and large daily moves have become increasingly common. While it traded more than 2% lower on an intraday basis yesterday, it finished the day down just 1.8%. Even though it didn’t have a daily move of 2%, 11 of the last 25 trading days have seen moves of more than 2%, and just recently, the rolling 25-day total was 12. As shown below, 2%+ daily moves haven’t been that clustered together since 2011, and before that, the Financial Crisis.
