See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“When one tugs at a single thing in nature, he finds it attached to the rest of the world.” – John Muir

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Paul Hickey appeared on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street yesterday to discuss the market setup heading into the fourth quarter. To view the segment, click on the image below.

The government shut down at midnight, and futures are moderately lower this morning, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq trading down 0.5%. All the market-related headlines, therefore, have attributed the weakness to the shutdown, and we can only imagine that somewhere out there, Eugene Fama is smashing his head against a wall. The prospect of a shutdown has been well known for weeks now, and betting markets were pricing in a near certainty of one yesterday, so if markets really were concerned and there was even a bit of truth to the Efficient Market Hypothesis, the S&P 500 wouldn’t have traded up 0.4% yesterday.  So, why is the market lower? There could be multiple reasons, and the fact that it’s the first day of a new quarter, where investors rebalance their holdings, could be one of them.

Outside of equities, US Treasury yields are modestly lower, oil is down half a percent, and gold is up 1% and above $3,900 as it marches towards $4,000 per ounce. Crypto is catching a bid with Bitcoin up 2%, while Ethereum and Solana are both up 4%.

On the data calendar this morning, we got the ADP report at 8:15, which showed an unexpected decline, and ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending will hit the tape at 10 AM. Despite the weaker ADP report, futures have seen little reaction.

In international markets, Japan finished the first day of the quarter with a decline of nearly 1% following a weaker-than-expected Manufacturing PMI reading, while India and South Korea traded up nearly 1%. Both Hong Kong and China were closed for holidays. European stocks are higher across the board, with the STOXX 600 up 0.7% despite a slightly weaker-than-expected Manufacturing PMI reading that remained in contraction territory.

As we head into the final quarter of the year, we wanted to take a look at the 12-month moves of some major asset classes over the last five decades to see how the recent moves stack up relative to history.

Starting with equities, the S&P 500’s total return of 15.8% over the last year is surprisingly only modestly better than the long-term average of 13.2%, ranking in just the 53rd percentile relative to history. Last year at this time, the trailing 12-month return was over 35%!

Treasury yields remain stuck in their bear market. While a decline of 3% doesn’t really seem like a big deal, we’re talking about treasuries here – traditionally referred to as a risk-free asset. Not only that, but the average 12-month return has been closer to 8%, and there have only been two months in the last five years when the trailing 12-month return was better than the long-term average.

Gold is off to one of the hottest starts in decades this year, and over the last 12 months, its 45.7% gain ranks as the strongest since the mid-2000s, and the only period where there was a significantly larger 12-month gain was in the late 1970s/early 1980s.

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“It is easy to ignore the rain if you have a raincoat” – Truman Capote

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Be sure to catch Paul Hickey today on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street at 10 AM.

It’s a modestly negative tone this morning as S&P 500 futures trade down 0.2% and the Nasdaq is down slightly less. Headline writers are attributing the weakness to concerns over a government shutdown, but those fears didn’t seem to bother anyone yesterday. Maybe it’s just Tuesday (see below). Treasury yields are slightly higher, crude oil is down nearly 1%, gold and other precious metals are lower across the board, as is crypto.

Overnight, Asian stocks were mostly lower. Japan traded down 0.3% as market expectations for a rate hike increase, and the government raised its forecasts for consumer spending for the first time in over a year.  PMI data in China was mixed, with the manufacturing component coming in slightly ahead of forecasts (but still below 50) while the services index missed expectations.In Europe, most major indices are little changed as economic data in Germany (Retail Sales) and France (CPI) missed expectations.

In the US today, we’ll get the Chicago PMI, which always seems to disappoint, at 9:45 followed by JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 10 AM. The only earnings report of note is Nike (NKE) after the close.

What’s so bad about Monday anyway? Lately, not much. The S&P 500 rallied 0.26% yesterday for its fourth straight positive start to the week and continuing a trend that has been in place for most of the year. Through last Friday, Mondays have been the second most positive weekday of the year with a median gain of 0.14% and gains 64.7% of the time. The only day of the week that has been stronger this year is Wednesday, with its median gain of 0.24% and gains 65.8% of the time.

\While Mondays have been strong, Tuesday is the new Monday as it ranks as the weakest weekday of the year with a median decline of 0.2% this year and gains just half of the time. The only other day of the week that has experienced negative returns on a median basis this year is Friday. So, maybe it shouldn’t come as any surprise that futures are lower this morning.

Looking at Tuesday performance more closely, the third quarter has been especially weak. Since the start of July, only four of the twelve Tuesdays have seen gains, so if the S&P 500 can manage to squeeze out a gain today, it would break what has been a pretty consistent trend of recent weakness.

Today marks the last trading day of Q3, which has historically been the weakest quarter of the year. Since 1928, the S&P 500’s average performance during Q3 has been a gain of 1.4% with positive returns 60.2% of the time, but returns in Q4 have been better than and more consistent to the upside with an average gain of 2.9% and gains just under three-quarters of the time. For more analysis on quarterly seasonality, make sure to check out Monday’s Chart of the Day.

While Q4 has historically been strong, buckle up for some volatility. The chart below shows the average monthly trading range of the S&P 500 since 1953 (when the five-day trading week in its current form started). October’s average high-low spread (%) has been 8.3% which far surpasses the average monthly range of any other month. The next closest month is January at 6.8%. What’s notable about the 1.5 percentage point spread between the most volatile and second most volatile months is that it’s also the same as the spread between the second most volatile (January) and the least volatile months (December).

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“Never make anything more accurate than it needs to be.” – Enrico Fermi

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

After last trading to record highs last Monday, US equities are kicking off the week on a positive note once again this week as deal-making activity provides a boost to investors concerned about market valuations.  Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are indicated to open up by over 0.50%. Crude oil is down over 2%, which also helps, while gold is up over 1% and Bitcoin and Ethereum are both up close to 2% after some rough trading last week.

The pace of earnings activity will be incredibly slow this week, with Nike (NKE) the only notable report of the week (Tuesday). Economic data will pick up the slack, though, with multiple PMI readings, Consumer Confidence, and Non-Farm Payrolls.

Like the S&P 500, which hit an all-time high last week before pulling back modestly, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) also hit an all-time high last Monday and then pulled back a little bit but still managed to finish the week up by 1.2%.  What’s been interesting about the SOX this year, though, is which stocks are leading. A list of some of the index’s best performers this year looks like a time warp from the late 1990s, with stocks like Rambus (RMBS), Micron (MU), Lam Research (LRCX), and Intel (INTC) all up over 75%! INTC was up over 20% just last week! Meanwhile, Nvidia (NVDA), the leader of the AI revolution, has been in the middle of the pack, managing a gain this year of ‘only’ 33%.

On a one-year basis, INTC’s chart looks a lot like ones from the 1990s as the stock has gone parabolic over the last two months, surging close to 90%!

On a two-year basis, INTC’s move looks more modest. Last Friday’s surge topped out just shy of the high it reached in the summer of 2024 right before it plunged 50% in a matter of weeks!

As impressive as INTC’s run has been in the last couple of months, it is still a shell of its former self. It’s still down close to 50% from its high in 2021. Additionally, while there has been a lot of talk lately about the market feeling like 1999, with INTC closing at $35 and change last Friday, it’s back to levels it first crossed back in January 1999!

Perhaps the most amazing thing about the recent moves in INTC is that last week’s gain of 20% was the third week in the last seven that the stock rallied 20%+. How crazy is that? Since 1985, there has only been one other week outside of the last seven that the stock rallied 20%+.