The Closer – SEP, TICs, Housing – 6/18/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with a recap of the FOMC and the more important Summary of Economic Projections (page 1). We also check in on the release of the TICS data (page 2). Next, we review the latest residential construction figures (page 3) including a look at affordability (page 4). We finish with an update on the latest crude inventory readings (page 5).
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Homebuilder Sentiment Down as Inventories Build
Yesterday, the NAHB published its latest monthly update on homebuilder sentiment. The headline sentiment index continued to deteriorate falling 2 points to 32, the lowest reading since December 2022.
In the table below, we show each component of the index in addition to its month-over-month change and how they rank as a percentile of their full histories. Indices declined for both present and future sales, resulting in each one now sitting in the bottom quartile of historical readings. The largest declines were observed in the regional data as the Northeast experienced a bottom decile monthly decline and the South experienced a bottom 1% decline.
These latest dips in sentiment come as inventories continue to rise, especially in the South and West. Homebuilder sentiment in both of these regions fell to their lowest levels since 2012 this month, and as shown below, these are the two regions where active listings (homes for sale) have spiked the most.
The Triple Play Report — 6/18/25
An earnings triple play is a stock that reports earnings and manages to 1) beat analyst EPS estimates, 2) beat analyst sales estimates, and 3) raise forward guidance. You can read more about “triple plays” at Investopedia.com where they’ve given Bespoke credit for popularizing the term. We like triple plays as an indication that a company’s business is firing on all cylinders, with better-than-expected results and an improving outlook. A triple play is indicative of positive “fundamental momentum” instead of pure fundamentals, and there are always plenty of names with both high and low valuations on our quarterly list.
Bespoke’s Triple Play Report highlights companies that have recently reported earnings triple plays, and it features commentary from management on triple-play conference calls, company descriptions and analysis, and price charts. Bespoke’s Triple Play Report is available at the Bespoke Institutional level only. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read this week’s Triple Play Report, which features 17 new stocks. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
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Ambarella (AMBA) is an example of a company that recently reported an earnings triple play after the close on 5/29. It was the company’s fifth straight triple play, although the last two have gotten more pushback from investors as the stock most recently sold off 15.1% on 5/30.
Here’s how AI describes the company: Ambarella (AMBA) is a semiconductor company specializing in low-power, high-performance system-on-chips (SoCs) that enable advanced computer vision, edge AI processing, and image signal processing across a range of end markets. Founded in 2004, the company originally gained recognition for powering HD and Ultra HD video in consumer devices such as GoPro cameras and drones, but has since evolved into a critical enabler of intelligent vision applications. Today, Ambarella’s SoCs are widely used in automotive ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) and autonomous driving, security cameras, industrial robotics, and other edge AI applications, where real-time object detection, tracking, and semantic segmentation are vital. The company’s edge AI portfolio, including its CVflow® architecture and most recently its AI domain controller solutions, is designed to reduce latency, enhance energy efficiency, and improve inference accuracy by processing data on-device rather than in the cloud. As demand grows for smarter, connected devices in automotive and industrial settings, Ambarella positions itself as a key player in the convergence of AI, vision processing, and embedded systems.
Ambarella reported Q1 revenue of $85.9 million, up 58% YoY, with record edge AI revenue, which now makes up over 75% of total sales. IoT sales rose mid-single digits sequentially, comprising roughly three-quarters of total revenue, while automotive dipped slightly QoQ but grew over 20% YoY. Management raised full-year revenue growth guidance to 19–25% (from 15–19% prior), citing success with its CVflow edge AI SoCs. The earnings call highlighted growing opportunities beyond traditional security cameras into other verticals such as industrial automation, wearables, conferencing, and fleet telematics, as well as growing adoption across global auto OEMs. A major focus is the emerging edge AI infrastructure market, where Ambarella is layering AI capabilities between endpoints and the cloud, supported by its third-gen AI accelerator. Management reaffirmed confidence in second-half growth, despite caution around geopolitical and tariff-related uncertainty.
Looking at the snapshot below from our Earnings Explorer, Ambarella (AMBA) has been on a triple play hot streak, but the stock’s price moves post-earnings have been weaker this year than the previous few reports. Nonetheless, AMBA sports 100% and 88% EPS and revenue beat rates, respectively, over 51 reports going back to 2012. That consistent success over an extended time frame is impressive.
You can read more about AMBA and the 16 other triple plays we covered in our newest report by starting a Bespoke Institutional trial today.
Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes all information contained in these reports to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in these reports or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. This is not personalized advice. Investors should do their own research and/or work with an investment professional when making portfolio decisions. As always, past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results. Bespoke representatives or clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 6/18/25
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“As long as the reason of man continues fallible, and he is at liberty to exercise it, different opinions will be formed.” – James Madison
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The June “Fed day” is here, and US equity futures are currently just a hair above the flat line as of 7 AM ET. The typical Fed day sees the S&P 500 open higher by roughly 20-30 basis points. Below is a chart showing the S&P’s average intraday path on Fed days since Powell became Fed Chair back in 2018 (red line). The blue line shows the S&P’s average path over just the last ten Fed days. Powell Fed days over his entire tenure and the last ten meetings have looked very similar, with the S&P sitting on decent gains going into the 2 PM ET rate announcement. We then typically see a rally from 2-3 PM ET followed by a sharp sell-off in the last hour of trading. As we noted in yesterday’s Chart of the Day, anything but a last-hour selloff will be atypical for a Powell Fed day.
The Closer – Weak Market, Solar Flail, AI Capex – 6/17/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start with a look into the weakening technicals for the market in addition to some comments on other big movers for other assets (page 1). We check in on the big sell-off in solar stocks in addition to a look at how other alternative energy names have done (page 2). Afterward, we highlight AI capex figures (page 3), retail sales (page 4), industrial production (page 5), and New York Fed Services activity (page 6).
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 6/17/25
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“A man has cause for regret only when he sows and no one reaps.” – Charles Goodyear
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After a strong bounce-back day yesterday following Friday’s 1% drop, US equity futures are down slightly ahead of today’s open on relatively little news. As shown below, market internals remain overbought, but not by much.
Looking at sectors, Energy now has the highest percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving averages at 91.3%, and the Energy sector’s valuation relative to the last ten years is on the low side compared to the rest of the market. Financials and Technology currently have the highest valuations relative to readings over the last ten years.
The Closer – Iran & Reconciliation, Crude, Empire – 6/16/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start with commentary regarding the situation in Iran in addition to progress in the Senate’s version of the budget bill (page 1). Next, we review the very volatile back-to-back sessions for crude prices (page 2) before finishing with a recap of the Empire Fed release (page 3).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 6/16/25
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“When the lambs is lost in the mountain, he said. They is cry. Sometime come the mother. Sometime the wolf.” – Cormac McCarthy, Blood Meridian
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
US equity futures are bouncing back pre-market to start the new trading week after a 1%+ drop last Friday. As shown below, the S&P has stabilized with less volatility over the last few weeks, giving it a chance to re-charge for an eventual breakout to new highs. The index needs to gain about 2.9% from its current level to make a new all-time high.
Brunch Reads – 6/13/25
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
King John Caves: On June 15, 1215, King John of England put his seal on the Magna Carta at Runnymede, a field west of London, after months of pressure from a group of rebellious barons. His rule had become deeply unpopular due to high taxes, failed military campaigns in France, and arbitrary justice. The barons had taken up arms and even captured London, forcing John to negotiate.
The Magna Carta was essentially a peace agreement. It laid out a set of demands from the barons that aimed to limit the king’s power, especially in taxation and legal matters. It required the king to follow certain rules, like obtaining consent for new taxes and guaranteeing that free men had a right to a fair trial.
Though the document was meant to prevent civil war, it didn’t succeed immediately. John asked the Pope to annul it just weeks later, and fighting broke out again. Still, the Magna Carta symbolized the idea that rulers are not above the law. Over time, parts of it were reissued and expanded, influencing future legal systems, including the US Constitution and the development of modern democracies.
AI & Technology
The Illusion of Thinking: Understanding the Strengths and Limitations of Reasoning Models via the Lens of Problem Complexity (Apple)
Even though new models are getting better at showing their work, this study finds that their “reasoning” starts to fall apart once puzzles hit a certain level of difficulty. The authors built a controlled testing environment to isolate and study how these models think, not just whether they get the right answer, and what they found is that the extra thinking steps often don’t help past a point. Strikingly, models actually put in less effort on harder problems, suggesting that today’s reasoning models might still be more surface-level than they seem. It is interesting to note that this study comes from Apple, who has generally been perceived to be behind the AI race. [Link]
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The Bespoke Report – 6/13/25 – There’s Always Something
To read our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. In this week’s report, we cover everything happening across financial markets after another wild week.