The Closer – Risk Appetite, Revisions, Housing – 9/9/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with a look into IPO performance and the outstanding guidance from Oracle (ORCL) (page 1). Next, we review today’s revisions to payrolls (page 2) followed by a dive into the latest housing data that includes ICE’s Mortgage Monitor Report (page 3) and inventories data from Realtor.com (pages 4 and 5).
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Small Businesses Shy From Expansion
This morning’s release of the NFIB’s gauge on small business optimism saw the headline index climb to 100.8, the strongest level since January. While there was an increase in the Optimism Index, under the hood, breadth was more mixed. For example, the outlook for the economy and the share of respondents viewing now as a good time to expand were both lower month over month. With regards to the former, the two-point decline still leaves the index in the 88th percentile of readings historically, whereas the latter is now below the historical median.
In addition to the index on expansion outlook, the report also details the reasons respondents give for various outlooks. Of those who view now as a good time to expand, only 1% pointed to sales prospects as the reason, while another 5% pointed to the political climate, and another 6% credited economic conditions. As for negative or uncertain responses, the bulk of responses (21% and 13% respectively) blamed economic conditions. While that reason accounted for the bulk of responses, costs are also appearing to be prohibitive. As shown below, for negative and uncertain expansion outlooks combined, 16% of responses blamed the cost of expansion, which is a record high for the series going back to at least 2013. While not at a new high, financials and interest rates have also risen recently, albeit with rate cuts on the horizon, so that reading could pivot lower in the near future. While any further details on what exactly the reasons may be are unfortunately unavailable, we would also note that “other” responses have likewise risen and came in at the high end of the past few years’ range.
While high costs may appear to be the reason firms are not viewing now as a good time to expand, other data in the report counters this argument. For example, the combined share of respondents who view their most important problems as either inflation, cost of labor, or cost/availability of insurance has continued to fall. Likewise, the share of respondents reporting higher prices is also at the low end of the post-pandemic range.
As noted previously, the NFIB survey tends to show political bias with favoritism toward Republican administrations. In other words, small business sentiment has historically tended to be better when a Republican is in office. For example, during Democratic administrations, an average of 13.9% of responses from respondents with a negative expansion outlook have blamed politics, but during Republican administrations, the average declines to 6.4%. Below we show the combined responses for negative and uncertain outlooks that have blamed politics. While Trump’s election resulted in a sharp decline earlier this year, there had been a rebound as policies like tariffs began to roll out. In the past few months, though, those politics-based negative outlooks have once again reverted lower and are nearing record lows. This dynamic of possibly temporary policy shocks to sentiment is something that we discussed related to the report’s labor data in today’s Morning Lineup.
Finally, we would note that while overall labor market indicators have shown modest improvement, or at the very least stability, one exception is the share of respondents reporting that job openings are hard to fill. As shown below, that category is now showing its weakest levels since December 2020.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 9/9/25 – One in the Same
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“Wrong does not cease to be wrong because the majority share in it.” – Leo Tolstoy
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After modest gains in US equities to start the week, futures have a positive bias this morning ahead of a relatively quiet day for economic data. The only report on the calendar is the NFIB Small Business Confidence report for August, which came in slightly better than forecasts, rising from 100.3 to 100.8.
An even bigger news story today will be the Preliminary Benchmark Payrolls Revision from the BLS. While the data is even more backward-looking than most other economic data, the headline number is expected to show a large downward revision to the number of jobs created between April 2024 and March 2025. Economists forecast the downward revision to anywhere between a loss of 450K to 900K, so you can guarantee that at the very least, both sides of the political aisle will seize on the headlines.
Finally, Apple (AAPL) will hold its ‘awe-dropping’ iPhone event at 1 PM eastern, where a new line of phones, along with updated iPads, watches, and AirPods, are expected. If you didn’t see it yesterday, make sure to check out yesterday’s Chart of the Day, where we looked at the stock’s performance around prior iPhone launch events.
Besides the modestly positive tone in equities, treasury yields are slightly higher, but the 10-year is still under 4.07%, and WTI, while higher by about 1%, is still below $63 per barrel. In the metals market, performance is mixed with modest gains in gold and platinum, while silver is slightly lower. Lastly, crypto is higher across the board with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana all up by close to 1%.
Outside of the US, Asian equities were mixed overnight. The Nikkei broke a streak of three straight days of at least 1%+ gains with a decline of 0.4%, while China’s Shanghai Composite fell 0.5%. European stocks are hanging on to small gains (0.14%). Germany is the biggest outlier with a decline of 0.4% while other countries in the region are offsetting those losses.
When it comes to precious metals and crypto, the first asset that immediately comes to mind for most people is gold, and given its recent performance, deservedly so. However, when you look at gold’s performance in comparison to other major precious metals like platinum and silver, their performances are nearly identical. Over the last year, gold has gained 45.9% while platinum and silver have rallied 47.9% and 46.1%, respectively. Their paths haven’t necessarily been identical, but they’ve ended up at the same place.
In the crypto space, Bitcoin is effectively the gold standard, and for most ‘investors’, it is the crypto market. Here again, Bitcoin’s performance hasn’t been much different than the ‘silver’ of that market – Ethereum. Here again, the paths of the two cryptos haven’t necessarily been the same, but they’ve essentially ended up at the same place. While Bitcoin is up 97.8% over the last year, Ethereum’s 85.9% gain isn’t far behind, especially for an asset class as volatile as crypto.
While the major metals and cryptos have had similar performances to each other over the last year, the same can’t be said for equities. While their trading patterns have been similar over the last year, the Russell 2000’s 14.5% gain comes up well short of the S&P 500’s 20.1% gain and pales in comparison to the Nasdaq’s gain of over 30%. While precious metals and, to a lesser degree, the leading cryptos have been almost interchangeable in their performance over the last year, equities, the most liquid of the three asset classes, have seen more varied returns.
The Closer – Upcoming Data, Consumer Expectations – 9/8/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start with a look at this week’s upcoming data including the revisions to the payrolls number, Current Population Survey’s Annual Social and Economic Supplements, and CBO outlook (page 1). We also review some additional labor market data (page 2) before diving into the findings from the latest NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (pages 3 – 6).
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Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Broadcom (AVGO)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Broadcom’s (AVGO) Q3 2025 earnings call.
Broadcom (AVGO) is a semiconductor and infrastructure software giant serving hyperscale cloud providers, telecoms, enterprises, and industrial markets. On the semiconductor side, it designs and manufactures custom AI accelerators (XPUs), networking chips, broadband, storage, and wireless solutions. Its infrastructure software portfolio, bolstered by VMware, provides cloud virtualization and enterprise IT platforms. Broadcom reported record Q3 revenue of $16B, up 22% YoY, with AI semiconductors surging 63% to $5.2B. A newly qualified fourth XPU customer placed over $10B in AI rack orders, driving backlog to $110B and setting up an acceleration in FY26 growth beyond last quarter’s 50–60% outlook. Networking innovations like Tomahawk 6 and Jericho 4 Ethernet switches aim to ease bottlenecks as clusters scale past 200,000 nodes, while physical constraints (power and land) force hyperscalers into “scale-across” multi-site data centers. Non-AI semis remain sluggish, with broadband the only bright spot. VMware Cloud Foundation 9.0 has been adopted by over 90% of top VMware accounts, cementing Broadcom’s role in the private cloud shift. AVGO shares climbed as much as 16% on 9/5 in reaction to the triple play earnings report…
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Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Samsara (IOT)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Samsara’s (IOT) Q2 2026 earnings call.
Samsara (IOT) provides a connected operations cloud that digitizes and analyzes data from physical assets like fleets, equipment, and worksites using IoT gateways, cameras, and sensors. The company serves asset-heavy industries such as transportation, construction, manufacturing, and public sector agencies, giving visibility into frontline operations. What’s impressive is Samsara’s proprietary dataset of over 20 trillion annual data points, which it combines with AI to deliver actionable insights on safety, efficiency, and sustainability. Its customers include airlines, concrete producers, utilities, municipalities, and global retailers, organizations where operational costs are both enormous and mission-critical. Samsara reported ARR of $1.64B, up 30% YoY, with $105M net-new ARR and a record 17 new $1M+ ARR customers now contributing 20% of total ARR. Management emphasized strong momentum in construction and manufacturing tied to AI infrastructure build-outs, plus accelerating wins in the public sector. Tariff-related deal delays from Q1 closed in Q2, and customers are adapting by stretching asset lifespans and optimizing utilization. AI remains central, powering features like AI Multicam and weather intelligence, while new products (asset maintenance, commercial navigation, asset tags) are gaining traction. Europe delivered its strongest ACV growth in a year, aided by local product customization. IOT reported its first triple play in a year and a half, and after a string of negative reactions to earnings, shares rallied 20% at the open on 9/5…
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 9/8/25 – In the Middle
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“Time lost can never be recovered.” – Erik Larson
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
In terms of economic activity, last week’s ISM Services report was better than expected and firmly in growth territory at 52.0, but the ISM Manufacturing and August payrolls reports both missed expectations, lending some credence to the idea that the economy is showing signs of slowing. This week, the focus will shift to inflation with Wednesday’s PPI and Thursday’s CPI reports for August. Secondary indicators of inflation have shown some upward pressure, so the market is clearly more concerned with these indicators coming in hot. How hot is the question? While a September cut next week is likely a done deal, the pace of cuts moving forward from there will hinge in large part on how ‘bad’ the inflation data is. Come Thursday morning, the market will either be only thinking about stagflation or three cuts between now and year-end.
It’s been a slow start to the week stateside, and the only economic report on the calendar this morning is the NY Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, and the focus of that will be inflation expectations. Futures are modestly higher, along with crude oil, gold, and crypto.
Asian equities started off the week positive. The Nikkei rallied 1.5% closing just shy of a new high, while China was up a little less than 0.5%. Japanese GDP for Q2 came in better than expected, and China’s trade surplus handily beat expectations.
In Europe, equities kicked off the week on a positive note. The STOXX 600 is up about 0.3% as Spain and Germany lead the way higher. Investor sentiment from Sentix came in weaker than expected and declined modestly from August, but Industrial Production in Germany managed to exceed forecasts with a slightly better than expected increase.
Last week was literally a middle-of-the-road week for the S&P 500. As shown in the snapshot of the ETFs tracking the equity markets of each of the G7 countries, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s decline of 0.26% from the close on 8/28 (due to last Monday’s Labor Day holiday) was right in the middle relative to the other six country ETFs. Canada (EWC) was the big winner of the group with a gain of 1.47% while every other ETF traded lower. Performance in the UK (EWU) and Japan (EWJ) was less bad than the US, while Germany (EWG) and Italy (EWI) both declined over 1%, and France (EWQ) fell 0.79%.
With respect to their trading ranges, Germany is the only country in the G7 trading at oversold levels, while France is the only other one trading below its 50-DMA. At the other end of the spectrum, the US and the three other countries that outperformed it last week are all at overbought or ‘extreme’ overbought levels (2+ standard deviations above their 50-DMAs).
While the US was right in the middle of the road last week, with its 10.44% YTD gain, it is still easily the weakest performer among the G7. In fact, the next closest performer is Japan with a gain of 18% while Italy is up over 40%!
Brunch Reads – 9/7/25
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
Stars, Stripes, and Sam: On September 7, 1813, Uncle Sam was born as the nickname of the United States. Uncle Sam, the tall, stern figure in a top hat and star-spangled suit, is one of America’s most enduring symbols, and his origins trace back to the War of 1812. A meat packer in Troy, New York, by the name of Samuel Wilson, supplied barrels of beef to the US Army. Each shipment carried the initials “US” to mark government property, but soldiers joked that it really stood for “Uncle Sam,” since Wilson was well-known in the community. The nickname spread quickly, and before long, “Uncle Sam” became a stand-in for the government itself.
The cartoon version took shape much later. In the mid-1800s, political cartoonists like Thomas Nast gave Uncle Sam a face and personality, drawing him as a lanky, bearded man draped in stars and stripes. By World War I, artist James Montgomery Flagg gave him the look that stuck: finger pointed at the viewer, top hat, and striped pants on the famous “I Want YOU” recruitment poster. From then on, Uncle Sam wasn’t just a local nickname but the face of America and patriotism.
AI & Technology
AI stethoscope could detect heart conditions in seconds (BBC News)
British researchers tested AI-powered stethoscopes on more than 12,000 patients and found they could flag heart failure, valve disease, and abnormal rhythms far earlier than traditional exams. The handheld device records heart sounds and electrical signals, then uses cloud-based AI trained on tens of thousands of cases to spot subtle warning signs doctors often miss. After showing patients were up to three times more likely to get timely diagnoses, the NHS is preparing to expand the rollout across the UK. [Link]
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The Bespoke Report – Rotation – 9/5/25
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The tape has been heavy for growth stocks for a few weeks now, especially AI names, but that hasn’t stopped investors from rotating into other areas of the market that had been doing poorly up until mid-August. Read our thoughts on recent market action and where we might go from here in this week’s report.
Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: ServiceTitan (TTAN)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers ServiceTitan’s (TTAN) Q2 2026 earnings call.
ServiceTitan (TTAN) is a cloud software platform built for contractors in the trades, including HVAC, plumbing, electrical, roofing, and commercial services. Its tools manage everything from scheduling and dispatch to marketing, payments, and customer communication. What’s impressive is how deeply it integrates into a contractor’s workflow, making it essentially the “operating system” for the trades. By layering in AI through Titan Intelligence and its suite of Pro products, ServiceTitan gives insight into how automation is transforming small and large service businesses alike. The company serves both mom-and-pop shops and major enterprises like Roto-Rooter. In Q2 FY26, ServiceTitan posted 25% revenue growth to $242M, with subscription revenue up 27% and usage revenue up 23%, boosted by stronger on-platform payments and $22.9B gross transaction value. AI and automation stole the spotlight: a Gulfshore customer achieved the first fully automated job, from ad click to payment, without human intervention until the technician arrived. Enterprise growth accelerated with Roto-Rooter signing on, while commercial expansion gained traction as new construction management features roll out. Roofing momentum grew with ABC Supply integration and insurance workflow automation. Residential HVAC was softer on tough comps versus last year’s record heat, but non-HVAC trades and commercial delivered strength. The company’s triple play earnings pushed the stock as much as 12% higher on 9/5…
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