The Closer – Central Banks, Gold, Micro-Cap – 10/8/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a look into global push toward rate cuts in addition to the Fed minutes (page 1). We then show real gold prices and a handful of other insights on the yellow metal (pages 2 -4). We then finish with a check up on the surging performance in micro-cap stocks (page 5) and an update on crude inventories (page 6).
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A Strong Six Months
Today marked six months since the US stock market made its “tariff crash” closing low on April 8th.
As shown below, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has rallied 47.1% over the last six months. That’s definitely on the high-end for all six-month moves in the index’s history, and it’s the biggest six-month pop since the initial rally back from the COVID Crash back in early 2020.
Amazingly, in the late 1990s during the height of the Dot Com Bubble, we saw two six-month runs of nearly 100% within a year of each other in early 1999 and early 2000.
Of the major equity index ETFs in the US, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has rallied the most over the last six months (+47%), while the S&P 500 (SPY) is up 36.4% and the Dow 30 (DIA) is up 24.8%. Small-caps (IWM) have rallied a solid 41.9%, while mid-caps (IJH) are up less at 29.5%.
Looking at the eleven major sector ETFs, Technology (XLK) is the only one that has done better than SPY since the 4/8 low with a gain of 62.2%. Consumer Staples (XLP) and Health Care (XLV) are both up less than 10%. Within the Tech sector, the semis (SMH) are up a remarkable 92.3%; the best performing ETF in our matrix over the last six months.
Outside of the US, plenty of country ETFs have gained 40%+ like China (MCHI), Hong Kong (EWH), Italy (EWI), Spain (EWP), and Israel (EIS). India (INDA) is up just 7.1%, while Argentina (ARGT) has actually fallen 1.4%.
Gold (GLD) has kept right up with equities since 4/8 with a gain of 35.3%. Silver (SLV) is up nearly twice as much with a gain of 64.2%, while the Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) is up 60.7%.
Across Treasury and fixed income ETFs, we’ve seen gains from 2-4.5%.
What Ever Happened to Egg and Cocoa Prices?
Remember earlier in the year when rising egg and chocolate prices threatened to cancel breakfast and Valentine’s Day? In the case of eggs, retailers, who could get their hands on them, even limited the number of eggs customers could purchase. Regarding chocolate, there were stories about manufacturers reducing the number of chocolate pieces or chips they included in their various products, like ice cream and cookies. The charts below illustrate the spikes in both commodities through their highs earlier in the year, and the media ran with it, extrapolating these events to warn of impending inflation spirals in the global food chain.
While the stories were all over business and even mainstream news earlier in the year, when was the last time you heard about egg or cocoa prices? Probably not recently, right? Have you wondered why? Maybe the updated charts below explain why. From their highs earlier in the year, egg prices have declined by 82% and cocoa prices are down by half. Given the frenzy over higher prices back then, why aren’t there as many warnings of a deflationary spiral in food prices now? When it comes to commodities, the cure for higher prices has always been higher prices.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 10/8/25 – Excuses, Excuses, Excuses
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“The harder life is for a man when he is young, the easier it will be in the future.” – Aleksandr I. Solzhenitsyn
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After across-the-board declines yesterday, futures are looking to regroup this morning as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both on pace to open higher by about 0.2%. Treasury yields are modestly higher, and gold went through 4,000 like a hot knife through butter. Along with the increase in gold, other precious metals are also up even more, with platinum spiking over 2% while Palladium is up 4.5%! Even crude oil is trading higher this morning as WTI gains 1.5% to $62.70 per barrel. Finally, after a rough day in the crypto space yesterday, Bitcoin is up 1% while Ethereum is marginally higher at just under $4,500.
In Asia, China remains closed, but Japan, Hong Kong, and India are all lower after Japan’s October Tankan Index declined relative to September. In Europe, the tone is much more positive with the STOXX 600 rallying 0.7% and broad-based strength across the continent. In Germany, Industrial Production declined 4.3% m/m in August versus forecasts for a drop of just 1.0%, so whatever you think about growth in the US, Europe isn’t doing much better.
Sometimes the market moves just because investors are looking for an excuse to buy or sell. Yesterday could have been a case of the latter. The S&P 500 headed into yesterday with seven days in a row of gains, while the Nasdaq traded higher in six of the prior seven days, but those streaks didn’t even begin to illustrate how hot some sectors of the market have become, and you can’t fault investors for getting a little nervous. In fact, it’s very encouraging! Just as the quote above says, a little pain is good for the soul.
With investors already nervous, a report from The Information suggesting that margins in Oracle’s (ORCL) cloud business were thinner than expected was just the excuse they needed to take some profits. The report suggested that gross margins on the $900 million in revenue that the company generated from its Nvidia (NVDA) cloud business were just 14%, which is less than a quarter of the company’s overall gross margin of 70%.
Within minutes of the story being published, ORCL shares plunged 7% and the Nasdaq traded down over 1%. As shown in the chart below, while the magnitude of their respective moves after the report was published were different, the patterns were basically identical. Within 90 minutes, though, shares of ORCL started to rebound as “sources familiar with the situation” said The Information article was off base. By the end of the day, shares had erased more than half of their initial decline, finishing the day down 2.5%. The Nasdaq, however, didn’t bounce. While the declines didn’t intensify in the afternoon, the index finished right near where it traded after the initial release of the ORCL story.
There are multiple ways to read the divergence between ORCL and the Nasdaq intraday yesterday, and they could all be wrong. But one way to look at it is that investors looking for an excuse to take profits got just what they needed with the ORCL story, and once they rang the register, they were in no hurry to get back in. As the saying goes, “Nobody ever lost money taking a profit.”
The Closer – AI and Appetites, Sentiment, Consumers – 10/7/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we kick off with a look at Dell’s (DELL) AI exposure (page 1) followed by a review of the performance of quantum computing, nuclear, consumer, and travel stocks (page 2). We then switch over to investor sentiment (page 3) and next look abroad with a rundown on European auto sales (page 4). Following a recap of the latest consumer credit figures (page 5), we review the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (pages 6 and 7) and close out with a dive into the latest LMI report (pages 8 and 9).
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Q3 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Constellation Brands (STZ)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Constellation Brands’ (STZ) Q2 2026 earnings call.
Constellation Brands (STZ) is one of the largest premium alcoholic beverage companies in the US, best known for its Mexican beer portfolio led by Modelo Especial, the top-selling beer by dollar sales in America, and Corona Extra. The company also owns a range of wine and spirits brands, including Kim Crawford, The Prisoner, and Mi CAMPO. With production facilities in Mexico and distribution across North America, Constellation offers investors a lens into US consumer spending, Hispanic demographic trends, and the broader beer industry’s pricing power. On the earnings call, management attributed slower beer volumes primarily to macroeconomic strain and weakened Hispanic consumer sentiment tied to ICE activity and financial anxiety. Despite this, Modelo and Corona loyalty improved, and Constellation continued investing in marketing through MLB and NFL partnerships. CFO Garth Hankinson cited $70M in beer tariffs and $500M in cumulative cost savings since its transformation. The company reaffirmed confidence that weakness is cyclical, not structural, and highlighted affordability initiatives like smaller packs and repositioned Modelo Oro. STZ shares opened 4.2% higher on 10/7 after posting better-than-expected results, though the stock declined intraday…
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Q3 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: McCormick (MKC)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers McCormick’s (MKC) Q3 2025 earnings call.
McCormick (MKC) is a huge name in flavor, known for its spices, herbs, seasonings, condiments, and flavor solutions for consumers and the food industry. Its iconic retail brands, like McCormick, Frank’s RedHot, French’s, and Cholula, line home pantries worldwide, while its flavor solutions division serves quick-service restaurants, packaged food companies, and beverage producers. The company provides insight into global food trends, from home-cooking and value-seeking habits to the rise of clean-label and health-driven reformulations. McCormick’s third-quarter call centered on navigating tariff and inflation headwinds while maintaining consumer demand. The company now expects $70 million in 2025 tariff costs (up from $50M) and a $140M annualized exposure, but is mitigating through pricing and productivity savings. Commodity costs rose faster than expected, pressuring gross margins by 120 bps. In China, retail sales grew despite foodservice softness tied to austerity measures. QSR (Quick Service Restaurant) volumes strengthened globally, offsetting CPG (Consumer Packaged Goods) weakness, and reformulation projects performed well as brands reduce sugar, salt, and artificial ingredients. Management highlighted sustained household cooking and health-conscious flavor innovation as long-term tailwinds…
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 10/7/25 – Whipsaw Semis
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“We learn from history that we don’t learn from history!” – Desmond Tutu
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
There’s not a lot going on in the futures market this morning, and once again, it will be another day without any economic data as the government remains closed. At this point, very few people have been affected by the shutdown, but as paydays come and go, the switchboards in DC will start heating up.
While there’s no economic data on the calendar, plenty of Fed officials are likely to speak, including Fed governors Bowman and Miran as well as Atlanta Fed President Bostic and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari. The next Fed meeting is just three weeks away, and markets currently expect a 93% chance of another 25 basis point rate cut.
In Asian markets overnight, it was a quiet session. China and South Korea were closed while Japan finished marginally higher after trading up over 1% earlier in the session. The Yen weakened against the dollar again following the weekend election results as the likelihood of rate hikes declines, although a 30-year auction with a relatively high bid-to-cover ratio calmed some investor nerves.
European stocks are trading higher but by modest amounts, with the STOXX 600 trading up 0.2% with Italy (+0.6%) and France (+0.4%) leading the gains. German stocks aren’t performing as well following an unexpected decline in August Factory Orders (-0.8% vs 1.2%).
If you just looked at the performance of Nvidia (NVDA), which fell 1.1% yesterday, you probably would have thought semis had a bad day as well. You would have thought wrong. While NVDA was down, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) finished up 2.9%, and 24 of the index’s 30 components finished higher on the day. The scatter chart below compares the performance of NVDA (x-axis) to the SOX on every day since the launch of ChatGPT on 11/30/22, and during these 714 trading days, there have only been three where the SOX was up over 2.5% and NVDA traded down at least 1% on the day. In the post ChatGPT world, the SOX usually doesn’t rally without NVDA.
Given the broad strength in semis yesterday, the SOX continued it’s breakout from the summer consolidation and rallied to new highs yesterday. In the process, its price is now higher than the price of the S&P 500, something that only happened on a handful of other days back in 2004.
After yesterday’s rally, the SOX is now more than 31% above its 200-DMA. While that’s not unheard of for a volatile index like the SOX, the move from extreme oversold in April to extreme overbought now has been swift. In the span of 121 trading days, the SOX went from more than 25% below its 200-DMA to more than 25% above it. These kinds of reversals in the index have been uncommon.
The Closer – OpenAI-MD PCA, Bitcoin Breakout – 10/6/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with a commentary on the deal between OpenAI and AMD (AMD) and what that could mean for the broader AI space (page 1). We then preview this week’s earnings (page 2) before switching over to some principal component analysis (page 3). We wrap up tonight’s note with a check-in on Bitcoin’s breakout (page 4).
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Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report – October 2025
Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report is an analysis of a huge consumer survey that we run each month. Our goal with this survey is to track trends across the economic and financial landscape in the US. Using the results from our proprietary monthly survey, we dissect and analyze all of the data and publish the Consumer Pulse Report, which we sell access to on a subscription basis. Sign up for a 30-day free trial to our Bespoke Consumer Pulse subscription service. With a trial, you’ll get coverage of consumer electronics, social media, streaming media, retail, autos, and much more. The report also has numerous proprietary US economic data points that are extremely timely and useful for investors.
We’ve just released our most recent monthly report to Pulse subscribers, and it’s definitely worth the read if you’re curious about the health of the consumer in the current market environment. Start a 30-day free trial for a full breakdown of all of our proprietary Pulse economic indicators.
