Up, Up, and Away
Precious metals prices have been going crazy lately. Gold’s move above $4,000/ounce last week garnered the most headlines, but its gains look pedestrian compared to other metals like silver and platinum. We’ll start with gold, though. Over the last six months, gold rallied 26.9%, and as of last week, it was up over 35% in six months. The last time it rallied that much in half a year was back in 2008.
There’s nothing wrong with a gain of 26.9% in six months, but silver is still up by more than twice as much and was up over 65% in the trailing six months just last week. Historically, silver has been more volatile than gold, so its current run is ‘only’ the strongest since 2020.
As if you think silver’s run has been impressive, platinum says “hold my beer.” Through today, platinum was up over 80% in the last six months, and as of last week, it was up over 86%. In futures pricing dating back to 1986, platinum has never had a larger six-month gain.
While all three metals have had widely varying rallies in the last six months, relative to their respective histories, their moves have ranked above the 95th percentile versus all other six-month periods. The charts below show the performance of gold, silver, and platinum since 1986, which is when we have pricing data for all three commodities. In each chart, we have also included red dots to show the times when all three metals simultaneously had six-month rallies that ranked in the 95th percentile or above of their respective histories.
The only other periods when all three metals simultaneously had six-month rallies that ranked in the 95th percentile or above were in May 2006, February to March of 2008, May to early June of 2009. and September 2020. Within the equity market, we often see overbought markets becoming more overbought, but in the case of these three metals, it wasn’t uncommon to see at least a short-term pullback following prior moves like the one we’ve seen recently.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 10/13/25 – Rebound
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“Riches don’t make a man rich, they only make him busier.” – Christopher Columbus
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After a bout of ferocious selling on Friday for stocks and into the weekend for cryptocurrencies, investors took some time to think things through over the weekend, and they’re taking a more optimistic tone. Futures on the S&P 500 are 1% higher, while the Nasdaq trades up more than 1.5%. Bonds are closed for Columbus Day, but gold is sharply higher with a gain of over 2% and trading just under $4,100 per ounce. Crude oil is also bouncing back with a gain of 1.5% but is still trading below $60. It certainly could be worse, but even with this morning’s gains, the S&P 500 is still down well over 1% from Thursday’s close. The President may not like to see the stock market trade lower, but all the talk with China seems to have taken the shutdown off the front page of the business section.
S&P 500 futures are still up over 1% but off their highs from earlier in the session. We looked at all prior periods when the S&P 500 SPDR ETF (SPY) fell 2% in a session and then gapped up at least 75 bps at the open the following day. We originally looked at 1% upside gaps, but with SPY now teetering on a 1% gain, we widened the band. The overall results of both analyses were very similar, though.
The long-term chart of SPY below shows every prior occurrence when SPY gapped up at least 75 bps after a 2%+ down day since its inception in 1993. While there were plenty of similar occurrences during the bear markets of 2000 to 2002 and 2008 into early 2009, there have also been plenty of other occurrences at various points in the market cycle.
Brunch Reads – 10/12/25
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
Hacksaw’s Hero: On October 12, 1945, Private First Class Desmond T. Doss stood before President Harry Truman at the White House to receive the Medal of Honor, the nation’s highest military decoration. Doss was a pacifist who refused to carry a weapon when he was called to service in World War II, and he was mocked by fellow soldiers for his beliefs. During the battle of Okinawa, he braved relentless gunfire to rescue roughly 75 wounded men, lowering them, one by one, down a steep cliff, again without a weapon.
Truman reportedly told him, “You really deserve this. I consider this a greater honor than being President.” Doss accepted the medal with characteristic humility, saying he was only doing his duty to save lives rather than take them. In 2016, his story was told in a movie directed by Mel Gibson and starring Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge.
Media & Communications
Have we passed peak social media? (Financial Times)
Social media may have hit its breaking point. Global data show people are spending less time on platforms as feeds fill with AI-generated “slop” and fewer real interactions. Meta and OpenAI’s new ventures into automated content show how far the medium has drifted from connecting with friends toward total distraction and fighting for shortening user attention spans (except in North America, where screen time is still rising). [Link]
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The Bespoke Report – 10/10/25 – Anniversaries
To read our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. October is living up to its reputation as the most volatile month of the year! After a quiet start, markets saw a sharp drop, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experiencing their worst day in months. Is this a healthy pullback after historic gains, or a sign of something more? This week’s Bespoke report explored these questions and more. Give it a read!
Homebuilders Struggle
The foundation for homebuilder stocks has cracked over the last few weeks. As shown in the chart of the S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB), an attempt to re-take the 50-DMA at the start of the week failed miserably, and the ETF enters today down 6.5% since Monday’s open.
What had been a solid uptrend off the April lows has now broken for XHB. (You can take a closer look at the chart for XHB here.)
All but two homebuilder stocks in our snapshot below (from our Trend Analyzer tool) are down over the last week, with most down 5% or more. The recent move lower has left most of them in oversold territory, with three at “extreme” levels (>2 st. dev. below 50-DMA).
NVR, LGI Homes (LGIH), and TRI Pointe (TPH) are the three most oversold builders relative to their normal trading ranges, while KB Home (KBH) and DR Horton (DHI) are the next-most oversold.
The only housing-related stock in our snapshot that’s trading above its 50-DMA is TopBuild (BLD), which has bucked the trend and traded up 8% over the last week. The reason? Two days ago, TopBuild announced it was purchasing Specialty Products and Insulation – a wholesale distributor of insulation products – in an all-cash deal for $1 billion. While often-times companies doing the acquiring in an M&A transaction will initially see their shares trade lower, investors liked what they saw from this TopBuild purchase.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 10/10/25 – Tech and Utilities Lead the Way
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“If you want a happy ending, that depends, of course, on where you stop your story.” – Orson Welles
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US equity futures are modestly positive this morning following comments from potential Fed chair-in-waiting Christopher Waller, who said he expects the Fed to cut rates further this year, but at a ‘careful’ pace. Long-term treasury yields are notably lower as the 10-year yield trades down nearly 5 basis points to 4.10%. After dropping below $4,000 per ounce yesterday, gold is up nearly 1%, trading at $4,010. Crude oil prices are down over 1% on the prospects of peace in the Middle East, and crypto trades modestly higher at just about $121K.
With the government still shut down, the only economic data on the calendar is the University of Michigan Sentiment report, and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will speak at a bank conference shortly after the open. Speaking of economic data, the BLS has recalled furloughed staff this morning to ensure that the September CPI report gets released by the end of the month.
Asian markets were weak overnight, with the notable exception of South Korea, which rallied 1.7%. Japan, Hong Kong, and China, however, were all down 1% or more. Japanese PPI increased 0.3% m/m, triple the rate of consensus expectations, solidified market expectations for another rate hike this year. Despite Friday’s decline, the Nikkei finished the week 5.1% higher while Hong Kong traded down 3.1% and China was up fractionally.
In Europe, equity markets have been much tamer this morning. The STOXX 600 is little changed, and no major country’s benchmark index is up or down more than 0.3%, and most are on pace to finish the week with modest gains or losses.
The last five trading days have been full of divergence at the sector level. The S&P 500 is fractionally higher, but seven out of eleven sectors have traded lower, including four sectors – Real Estate, Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, and Materials – that are down over 1%. The only two sectors with gains of more than 1% are the formerly strange bedfellows of Utilities (3.05%) and Technology (1.4%). Both these sectors are also the only two trading at Extreme Overbought levels.
It wasn’t long ago that Utilities was considered the most defensive sector in the market, while Technology was considered the most risky sector. Like everything else now, it seems, AI has upended prior norms, although given the power-intensive nature of AI-related applications, the moves make sense.
Yesterday was a down day for the S&P 500, but in the seven trading days this month, there have already been five record closes, taking the YTD total to 33. If the year were to end today, 33 record highs in a year isn’t particularly noteworthy as it ranks tied for the 19th most since 1954.
What’s been more impressive is that the 33 record closes followed last year’s total of 57. With 90 record closing highs in the last two calendar years, there have only been five other two-year stretches when the S&P 500 had more record closing highs, and not to jinx anything, but there’s a legitimate chance that by the end of the year, the last two years could end up ranking well into the top five.
Q3 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Delta Air Lines (DAL)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Delta Air Lines’ (DAL) Q3 2025 earnings call.
Delta Air Lines (DAL) is one of the world’s largest and most profitable carriers, serving more than 275 destinations across six continents. The company’s revenue model extends beyond ticket sales to include high-margin businesses like loyalty programs, premium seating, maintenance services, and cargo. Delta’s SkyMiles ecosystem, anchored by its co-brand partnership with American Express, has become a key differentiator, blending travel, finance, and lifestyle benefits. Delta offers investors a window into broader consumer and corporate travel trends, economic confidence, and the health of affluent spending. The company reported record third-quarter revenue of $15.2 billion, up 4%. Corporate travel rebounded 9%, buoyed by resilient business confidence and rising demand for premium seats. Domestic main cabin revenue turned positive as competitors cut unprofitable capacity, while Transatlantic performance lagged but is being recalibrated with flatter seasonal flying. Premium and loyalty growth remain standouts. Amex remuneration rose 12% to $2 billion, and premium seat retention sits above 80%. Executives also noted deepening industry bifurcation, with Delta and United capturing the majority of airline profits. The stock was up more than 4% on 10/9 after posting stronger-than-expected results…
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The Closer – ETF AUM and Fee Analysis – 10/9/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with an overview of ETF markets including the emerging dominance of Bitcoin funds (pages 1 and 2). Next we discuss breakeven employment (page 3) before closing with a checkup on metal mining stocks’ outperformance versus gold (page 4).
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Q3 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: PepsiCo (PEP)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers PepsiCo’s (PEP) Q3 2025 earnings call.
PepsiCo (PEP) is a global food and beverage leader whose portfolio includes household staples like Lay’s, Doritos, Cheetos, Quaker, Gatorade, and Pepsi. Operating in more than 200 countries, it serves consumers across retail and foodservice channels. Pepsi’s innovation pipeline, ranging from zero-sugar beverages and functional hydration to protein and fiber-enhanced snacks, puts it at the center of evolving health, affordability, and convenience trends worldwide. The company’s Q3 call focused on regaining volume growth amid affordability pressures and a slower consumer backdrop. Management highlighted a return to balanced price and volume growth, aided by sharper price-pack architecture and innovation across Lay’s, Tostitos, and Gatorade. The company is betting on “better-for-you” offerings like Muscle Milk, Propel for GLP-1 users, and avocado-oil snacks to carry 2026 momentum. Away-from-home sales grew 2–3X retail, while international demand rebounded in September after weather-related softness. Executives also outlined factory and warehouse improvements, Texas “One North America” logistics pilots, and broader AI-driven supply-chain modernization to support margin expansion next year. Shares rose more than 3% in reaction to EPS and revenue beats on 10/9…
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 10/9/25 – 18 Years
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“Reality leaves a lot to the imagination.” – John Lennon
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Futures are flat with a negative bias this morning as the relentless rally in gold takes a pause, and oil prices see a marginal pullback. Stocks in Asia were higher overnight as China reopened for trading, and shares of Softbank surged more than 10% after announcing a deal to acquire the robotics units of ABB for $5.4 billion. In Europe, trading has been listless with the STOXX 600 down 0.04%.
The S&P 500 closed at another all-time high yesterday, just like it did 18 years ago today on 10/9/07. That new high in 2007 followed a late-summer peak-to-trough correction of nearly 12%. It was a time of stress in the financial system as the subprime housing market was in the process of imploding, but the Fed was cutting rates, and the damage ‘appeared’ contained. From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 had traded above resistance to new highs, and the 50-DMA, which has been sloping downwards, turned higher just above its 200-DMA, which was also rising. The one caveat was that the breakout to new highs wasn’t especially convincing, as the S&P 500 had only made a marginal new high.
Investors breathed a sigh of relief on 10/9/07, but in the days that followed, the S&P 500 couldn’t follow through on its breakout, and within days, it was back below its summer 2007 highs. Shortly after that, the wheels came off, and the crash began. A year after the October 2007 high, the S&P 500 cratered more than 40%. As loud as the sighs of relief were in October 2007, they had nothing on VIX screamings towards 80 a year later as the entire banking system was on the verge of collapse.
The experience of October 2007 should serve as a reminder that even in the best times, investors should always be prepared for the possibility that the light at the end of the tunnel is a freight train steaming right at us. It’s only fitting this morning that on the anniversary of the 2007 peak, JP Morgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon is in the news, warning of a correction in the market at some point in the next six months to two years. At first glance, that statement seems like something you would hear coming from Captain Obvious. Of course, there will be a correction in the next six months to two years! Stock market corrections occur on average about once a year, so there may actually be two!
If you read more into Dimon’s comments, though, he’s talking more about a serious bear market than a 10% correction. Even still, six months to two years isn’t really a precise forecast. While Dimon’s comments may not be of much use to investors or traders looking for any direction on where the stock market is going, they are exactly the kind of comments you want to hear from the CEO of America’s largest bank. That’s why JP Morgan Chase is just about the only major bank where the name on the CEO’s door is the same now as it was then. Dimon has earned the right to worry!
As bad as the declines were following the October 2007 high, as we always say when it comes to the market, time heals. It took several years, but eventually the market went on to make new highs, and this morning, the S&P 500 will open more than four times higher than it was when it closed at that peak 18 years ago.
