Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Deckers Outdoor (DECK)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Deckers Outdoor’s (DECK) Q4 2025 earnings call.
Deckers Outdoor (DECK) is the parent company behind lifestyle and performance footwear brands, including HOKA and UGG, both of which have grown into category leaders in recent years. HOKA is known for its highly cushioned performance running shoes with growing traction in trail, road, and lifestyle, while UGG has evolved from a cold-weather staple into a year-round fashion and comfort brand. The company sells globally through both direct-to-consumer (e-commerce and retail) and wholesale channels. DECK closed out its fiscal year with revenue of $5 billion (+16% YoY), driven by strong growth from HOKA (+24% to $2.2B) and UGG (+13% to $2.5B). Management highlighted a deliberate wholesale expansion to capitalize on rising HOKA awareness, especially internationally in EMEA and China. New HOKA models like the Bondi 9 and Clifton 10 have been met with strong reception, with new launches upcoming (Rocket X 3, Arahi 8, Mafate 5). DECK expects up to $150M in added costs in fiscal 2026 due to tariffs, prompting cautious commentary on pricing power and potential demand pressure. The company beat estimates on the top and bottom lines, but the stock tumbled as much as 22.8% on 5/23 on guidance that spooked investors…
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Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Williams-Sonoma (WSM)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Williams-Sonoma’s (WSM) Q1 2025 earnings call.
Williams-Sonoma (WSM) is a premium home furnishings and kitchenware retailer with a portfolio of distinct brands like Pottery Barn, West Elm, Williams Sonoma, and emerging concepts like Rejuvenation and GreenRow. Its customer base ranges from style-conscious homeowners to institutional buyers, and the company provides valuable insight into US housing trends, discretionary consumer spending, and premium retail behavior. WSM delivered a +3.4% comp in Q1, outperforming an industry that declined about 3%, with positive comps across all brands. Furniture sales turned positive for the first time in nine quarters, aided by exclusive collaborations and newness. B2B grew 8%, and emerging brands like Rejuvenation posted double-digit comps. Despite 30% China tariffs and new global reciprocal tariffs, WSM reaffirmed guidance, citing a six-point mitigation plan and inventory pull-forwards. AI integration drove marketing and fulfillment gains, while supply chain efficiencies led to record on-time deliveries. The stock fell 4.4% on 5/22 despite beating expectations on the top and bottom lines…
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Gold (GLD) and S&P 500 (SPY) Both Volatile
It’s been a volatile year for stocks so far, but more surprising is that gold prices, which have rallied more than 25% YTD, have been even more volatile. Year to date, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has experienced a daily move of at least 1% on 40% of all trading days compared to 37% for the S&P 500, as measured by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).
The chart below shows the rolling 50-day average number of daily 1% moves in GLD over the last 20 years. The current level of 54% is modestly below the recent high of 56%, and that was the highest frequency of daily 1% moves since late 2011! The second chart shows the same calculation for SPY over the last 20 years. While the current level of 42% is hardly extreme relative to history, earlier this month it was at 52%.
In both charts, areas where the line shifts from blue to red indicate periods when both GLD and SPY had 1%+ daily moves on more than 40% of trading days in a rolling 50-day period. The only periods in the last 20 years when both ETFs simultaneously had 1%+ daily moves over 50 days were during the Financial Crisis, late 2011 after S&P downgraded the US AAA credit rating, early 2016, Covid, and now.
The chart below shows the performance of GLD over the last 20 years, and here again, the red line indicates the periods when both GLD and SPY had 1%+ daily moves at least 40% of the time over a 50-day span. For GLD, there was no consistent pattern of performance leading up to or after these periods.
For the S&P 500, however, the pattern surrounding these occurrences was more consistent. Except the Financial crisis when elevated levels of volatility in both ETFs started just after the S&P 500’s peak and continued for most of the bear market, in the three other periods (and the current period), it wasn’t until late in the decline or after the market made its low that the average number of 1% daily moves in each ETF exceeded 40%.
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 5/23/25 – Early Summer Fireworks
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“If you want to keep your memories, you first have to live them.”– Bob Dylan
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Can you feel it? It may not feel like it in many parts of the country, but the unofficial start to summer kicks off in less than eight hours as the three-day Memorial Day weekend kicks off. There’s still one more trading day left in the week, though, and futures have been moving lower this morning and just recently took two legs lower. The first followed a Truth Social post from the President saying, “I have long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhone’s that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or anyplace else. If that is not the case, a tariff of at least 25% must be paid by Apple to the U.S.” In response to that post, shares of Apple (AAPL) plunged over 3% and took the Nasdaq down with it.
Shortly after that, the President shifted his attention to the EU, saying, “Our discussions with them are going nowhere! Therefore, I am recommending a straight 50% Tariff on the European Union, starting on June 1, 2025.” As you can imagine, that didn’t help matters, and futures took another leg lower, but stocks in Europe are down even more, with the STOXX 600 down 2%. Interestingly, while the S&P 500 was firmly higher, heading into the final half hour of trading yesterday, it fell sharply into the close, finishing the day slightly lower. Did somebody have wind of these Truth Social posts beforehand? We may have a three-day weekend coming up, but the President can post at any time…
This morning’s earnings and economic calendar are on the light side with little in the way of earnings reports, and the only economic report on the calendar is New Home Sales at 10 AM.
The period covering Memorial Day through Labor Day overlaps with the “Sell in May and go away” period, but the S&P 500’s performance during the unofficial summer period has generally been positive, most notably during years when the S&P 500 was already up YTD. The chart below shows the performance of the S&P 500 from the Friday before Memorial Day through the Friday before Labor Day over the last 50 years. The S&P 500’s median performance during this period has been a gain of 3.7%, with positive returns 72% of the time. In years when the S&P 500 was up YTD heading into the unofficial summer period, the S&P 500’s median performance was a gain of 4.3%, with positive returns 74% of the time. However, in the 15 years when the S&P 500 was down YTD, the median performance was just 1.4%, with gains 67% of the time.
Looking at the week after Memorial Day, the chart below shows the performance of the S&P 500 from the Friday before Memorial Day to the Friday after over the last 50 years. Overall, the S&P 500’s median performance has been a gain of 0.6% with positive returns 64% of the time, and there’s very little difference in performance depending on whether the S&P 500 was up or down YTD heading into the holiday weekend.
The Closer – Uncertainty, Bond Bath, Housing – 5/22/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a look at the still elevated readings in policy uncertainty (page 1) followed by a look into the latest PMI readings (page 2). After a dive into existing home sales (page 3) and affordability (page 4), we review IPO issuance and performance (page 5). We finish with a rundown of week to date and today’s performance in relation to bond correlation (page 6).
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Dividend Yields vs. Treasury Yields
While down a bit today, this week has seen a spike in long-term Treasury yields. Given the surge in yields, there has been a shake-up in the relationship between Treasury yields and dividend yields for stocks. As shown below, currently only 7.9% of stocks in the S&P 500 have dividend yields above the 10-year Treasury yield (4.59% at the time of writing). Additionally, only 12.1% of stocks in the index have dividend yields above that of the 2-year Treasury (4.0%).
Of course, yield dynamics are different for different sectors. As shown below, Real Estate has the highest percentage of stocks with dividend yields above the yield on the 10-year and 2-year. Energy, Utilities, and Materials are the sectors with the next largest shares, whereas cyclical groups like Tech, Industrials, and Consumer Discretionary hardly have any members with dividend yields larger than Treasury yields.
At the moment, there are 40 S&P 500 stocks with higher dividend yields than the 10-year yield, and we list them below. Two Materials stocks top the list with 9%+ dividend yields and over 20% declines on the year.
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 5/22/25 – Not the Breakout You Want to See
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“The president wants lower rates… He and I are focused on the 10-year Treasury and what is the yield of that.” – Scott Bessent
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Equity futures have been weakening all morning as yields have risen. Oil prices are lower as OPEC+ mulls another production increase, and Bitcoin is above $111K. The House passed its tax bill, and we’re approaching a slew of economic data about to be released after what has to this point been a quiet week for data.
The President and Treasury Secretary may want and be focused on the level of yields, but that’s not what they’re getting. While the 10-year US Treasury yield still hasn’t reached a new high for the year, the 30-year yield broke out above resistance yesterday, trading as high as 5.11% and then adding to those gains this morning and reaching a yield of 5.14%. From a technical perspective, the move higher in yield looks like a textbook breakout, and if that pattern played out, it would suggest higher rates ahead.
From a longer-term perspective, 5.11% was an important level for the 30-year yield. Looking at a two-year chart, it represents the high from Q4 2023, and if current levels of 5.14% hold, we could be in for a new leg higher in yields, which would spell more headaches for equities.
The Closer – Aggressive Auction Losses, Retail Rebound – 5/21/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start with a look at the historic reaction stocks had to today’s 20-year bond auction (page 1). We also show some other drivers of equity market performance (page 2) followed by a look into the big moves in retail stocks (page 3).
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Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Toll Brothers (TOL)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Toll Brothers’ (TOL) Q1 2025 earnings call.
Toll Brothers (TOL) is the nation’s leading builder of luxury homes, ranging from $300,000 to over $5 million across 24 states. The company specializes in architecturally distinctive, customizable homes and serves a financially strong clientele made up largely of move-up buyers, empty nesters, and affluent first-time homeowners. With its mix of build-to-order and spec homes (new homes built ready for purchase), TOL provides a unique lens into high-end housing demand, consumer confidence, and macro-driven buyer behavior. TOL delivered record Q2 home sales revenue of $2.71B on 2,899 homes. Spec home sales played a key role, with 1,000 completed specs and 2,400 in progress, though the company is slowing new spec starts to protect margins. Despite softer overall demand tied to declining consumer confidence and macro volatility, TOL reaffirmed full-year guidance, citing its resilient buyer base, 24% paid in cash, and financed buyers averaged 70% LTV (Loan-to-Value). Incentives rose modestly to 7% of ASP (Average Selling Price), and the company reiterated its strategy to prioritize price over pace in the current environment. The stock initially rose 6% after hours on 5/20 but declined into the red on 5/21…
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B.I.G. Tips – Death by Amazon – 5/21/25
In this note we update performance of our “Death By Amazon” and “Amazon Survivors” indices. Our “Death By Amazon” index has underperformed pretty dramatically since 2023 after broadly keeping up with the market as a whole over the prior 10 years. As for our “Amazon Survivors” index, it’s lagged the market somewhat so far this year but not dramatically.
Both of these indices outperformed dramatically in 2020 and 2021 but then gave all that boom back. It’s notable that these indices track stocks that are heavily exposed to tariffs given the general prevalence of Chinese-sourced goods in the consumer basket. That said, the impact isn’t uniform, with everything from used auto dealers to groceries seeing much less exposure to imports from China than the rest of the basket.
Bespoke publishes the “Death By Amazon” and “Amazon Survivors” Indices as a way to track performance of the companies most affected by the rise of AMZN. Neither index represents investment returns of an actual investment portfolio. When initially constructed, companies in the “Death By Amazon” index had to be direct retailers with a limited online presence (or core business based on physical retailing locations), a member of either the Retail industry of the S&P 1500 Index or a member of the S&P Retail Select Index, and rely on third party brands. We view these attributes as the best expression of AMZN’s threat to traditional retail. The “Amazon Survivors” index is designed to track the performance of companies which have some sort of defense against Amazon, selling goods not suited to mass e-commerce, operating e-commerce platforms of their own, or selling their own brands consumers will focus on instead of who is selling them. The indices are equally weighted, rebalanced monthly, and presented in total return terms.
To see how the two indices have been performing lately and view the full list of stocks that make up the indices, please read our newest report on the subject available to Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members.
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