Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Upstart (UPST)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Upstart’s (UPST) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Upstart (UPST) is an AI-driven lending platform that uses machine learning models to assess creditworthiness beyond traditional FICO scores. The company partners with banks and credit unions to offer personal loans, auto refinancing, and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). What sets Upstart apart is its proprietary AI underwriting, which means faster approvals, higher accuracy in risk assessment, and automation rates exceeding 90%. UPST closed 2024 highlighting loan originations up 68% YoY and revenue that jumped 56% YoY to $219M. AI innovation was a major theme, with Model 19 introducing the Payment Transition Model (PTM), improving default predictions. The Upstart Macro Index (UMI) improved, helping stabilize credit performance. Auto and HELOC originations grew 60% sequentially, and small-dollar loans soared 115%. The company expanded funding, adding $1.3B in new commitments and a $150M warehouse facility. CEO Dave Girouard emphasized plans to “10x” AI leadership in 2025, while the company aims for profitability in second half of 2025. After its third straight earnings triple play, UPST skyrocketed almost 30% on Wednesday morning, 2/12…
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Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Zillow (ZG)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Zillow’s (ZG) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Zillow (ZG) is the dominant online real estate marketplace, providing home buyers, sellers, renters, and real estate professionals with data-driven tools to navigate the housing market. The company’s platform includes home listings, rental properties, mortgages, and real estate agent services, with its “Housing Super App” that aims to digitize every stage of a real estate transaction. ZG serves both individual consumers and industry professionals, offering insights into housing trends, affordability, and market conditions. Its Zestimate home valuation tool and integration of AI-driven features like Zillow Showcase make it a leader in real estate technology. This quarter, ZG posted $554 million in Q4 revenue, up 17% YoY, despite a sluggish housing market with only 6% total transaction value growth. The enhanced market expansion strategy drove stronger conversions, with 21% of transactions now in these markets, expected to reach 35% in 2025. Mortgage revenue soared 86% YoY, with Zillow Home Loans adoption climbing. Rental revenue jumped 25%, fueled by a new Redfin partnership and an expanded multifamily property count of 50,000 (up from 37,000 in 2023). AI-powered features, including Zillow Showcase, helped drive a 2% premium on listings. While home affordability remains a challenge, ZG notes that a shortage of 4.5 million homes remains a structural constraint. ZG beat estimates but cut guidance, and the stock fell as much as 14.2% on Wednesday morning, 2/12…
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 2/12/25 – Stall Speed
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Time would become meaningless if there were too much of it.” – Ray Kurzweil
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Equity futures are mixed heading into the open and the January CPI report but based on Powell’s testimony in front of the US Senate yesterday, this report will probably have no impact on short-term Fed policy which looks to be on hold. A key reason for that view from the Fed is that while inflation has come down considerably from its peak, it’s become stuck at levels too high for the Fed’s liking. Hence, the moderately restrictive policy stance.
The chart of Core CPI encapsulates this pattern. After peaking at a year/year rate of 6.6% in September 2022, Core CPI steadily pulled back over the next 20 months dropping to a rate of 3.2% last July. Since July, though, the core inflation rate has been stuck at that 3.2% level. The year/year rate was forecast to fall to 3.1% in this morning’s report for January which would have been the lowest rate since April 2021. The actual rate came in higher than expected at 3.3% which is still within the stall speed range we’ve been in since last July. Even if the y/y rate did fall to 3.1%, though, the core rate would still be 0.7 ppts above its pre-Covid peak of 2.4% from 2015 through 2020.
The Closer – Kalecki, Earnings, Sentiment – 2/11/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with some commentary regarding government deficits (page 1) followed by a dive into the latest earnings (page 2). We then review investor sentiment (page 3) before closing out with a rundown of the strong 3-year note auction (page 4).
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Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Shopify (SHOP)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Shopify’s (SHOP) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Shopify (SHOP) is an e-commerce platform that enables businesses of all sizes to build, manage, and scale their online and offline operations. It provides tools for website creation, payments, inventory management, and marketing, serving everyone from small startups to global brands like Reebok and FC Barcelona. With a growing enterprise presence, SHOP is competing with legacy commerce providers. The company’s rapid international growth and dominance in checkout solutions (Shop Pay now accounts for 41% of GMV) provide insights into digital commerce trends, merchant adoption, and the evolution of retail infrastructure. SHOP closed 2024 with 31% Q4 revenue growth and 26% GMV growth. Enterprise adoption is improving, with brands like Aldo and David’s Bridal doing more with the platform beyond initial integrations. International GMV grew 33%, led by 37% growth in EMEA, while B2B surged 132%. AI investments, including Sidekick, are hard at work to improve merchant efficiency. Shop Pay processed $27B in GMV, up 50% YoY, while the Shop App’s native GMV jumped 84%. Shopify also highlighted strong offline growth (26% GMV increase), meaning physical retail with its point of sale (POS) systems. EPS was in line while revenue beat estimates, and the stock was up modestly on Tuesday afternoon…
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Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: McDonald’s (MCD)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers McDonald’s (MCD) Q4 2024 earnings call.
McDonald’s (MCD) is the world’s largest fast-food chain, serving over 69 million customers daily across more than 40,000 locations in over 100 countries. Known for its core menu items like the Big Mac, McNuggets, and fries, the company has increasingly focused on popularizing chicken, digital sales, and loyalty programs. MCD provides insight into consumer spending trends, particularly among low- and middle-income diners, and serves as a key barometer for global economic conditions and QSR industry trends. Q4 was challenging, with US comp sales down 1.4% due to an E. coli outbreak linked to slivered onions in Quarter Pounders, though full recovery is expected by early Q2 2025. Global comp sales were up 0.4%, led by Canada, Germany, and Spain, while the UK and Australia lagged. The company is doubling down on value with the McValue platform. Loyalty program sales hit $30B, with a goal of $45B by 2027. There are 2,200 new restaurants planned in 2025, including 1,000 in China. MCD missed on the top and bottom lines, but the stock rose almost 5% on 2/10. Look out for the fan favorite Snack Wrap comeback at some point this year…
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Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Cloudflare (NET)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Cloudflare’s (NET) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Cloudflare (NET) provides a global network infrastructure that enhances security, performance, and reliability for websites, applications, and enterprise networks. The company’s platform offers a suite of services, including DDoS protection, Zero Trust security, content delivery, and AI-driven computing with Cloudflare Workers. NET serves small developers to Fortune 100 enterprises and government agencies. This quarter, NET delivered $459.9M in revenue, up 27% YoY, driven by strong enterprise adoption and record growth in large customers. AI continues to be a major growth catalyst, with Cloudflare Workers and AI inference services picking up steam. The company signed its largest contract ever, a $20M five-year deal with a Fortune 100 firm. Security and Zero Trust expansion also fueled growth, with Cloudflare winning major contracts by displacing incumbents. Pool of funds contracts contributed significantly, comprising about 9% of Q4 revenue. The company remains bullish on AI efficiency, highlighting its ability to optimize GPU utilization to 70%, well above industry averages. FedRAMP High certification further strengthens NET’s government business. NET results topped estimates, and the stock surged 17.8% on 2/7…
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Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Amazon.com (AMZN)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Amazon.com’s (AMZN) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Amazon.com (AMZN) is the world’s largest e-commerce company and a dominant force in cloud computing through AWS. It sells everything from everyday essentials to high-end electronics, with a growing focus on faster delivery, AI-driven personalization, and advertising. AWS powers much of the internet’s infrastructure, and Amazon’s AI and machine learning innovations shape how businesses and consumers interact with technology. AMZN reported $187.8 billion in revenue (+10% YoY), driven by AWS growth, improved fulfillment, and a strong holiday shopping season. AWS, now a $115 billion annualized business, is working on advancing its AI infrastructure with Trainium2 chips and partnerships like Anthropic’s Project Rainier. Prime’s same-day delivery network grew 60% in 2024, great for strengthening demand for everyday essentials. Advertising revenue hit $17.3 billion (+18% YoY), now a $69 billion annual business. Cost-cutting efforts improved logistics, lowering fulfillment expenses while boosting speed. Despite macro concerns like currency headwinds and AI supply constraints, AMZN is aggressively investing in AI, automation, and robotics to drive future growth. On better-than-expected results, AMZN fell 4.1% given weaker guidance…
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Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Eli Lilly (LLY)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Eli Lilly’s (LLY) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Eli Lilly (LLY) is a pharmaceutical giant specializing in treatments for diabetes, obesity, oncology, neuroscience, and immunology. LLY is best known for Mounjaro and Zepbound, its blockbuster incretin drugs driving the weight-loss and diabetes markets. The company also develops cutting-edge Alzheimer’s treatments, including Kisunla (donanemab), and invests heavily in oncology and cardiometabolic advancements. In Q4, LLY delivered 45% revenue growth, driven by Mounjaro ($3.5B) and Zepbound ($1.9B), with Zepbound now the market leader in anti-obesity drugs. The company is expanding production 1.6x in early 2025 to ease supply constraints. Regulatory wins include confirmation that Zepbound’s use for obstructive sleep apnea approval could enable Medicare reimbursement, broadening access. International sales surged, with 82% growth in Europe and a China launch underway. The pipeline remains strong, with Orforglipron’s oral GLP-1 readouts expected in 2025, and new oncology and Alzheimer’s trials progressing. Despite lawsuits over compounded GLP-1s, LLY is confident demand remains strong and sees a long runway for growth in obesity, diabetes, and cardiometabolic health. After beating estimates, LLY’s stock was up 3.3% on 2/6…
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Small Business Sentiment Wild Ride
This morning was light for economic data with the only release of note being the NFIB’s Small Business Optimism index. The headline number was expected to pull back following the post election surge, but the decline was larger than expected as it came in at 102.8 versus forecasts of 104.7. That being said, as shown in the chart below, small business sentiment is still up huge since last November’s election.
In the table below, we show the readings across the report’s sub-indices for January and December, the month over month change, and how those all rank as a percentile of all periods. As shown, the Optimism Index’s decline in January was actually quite large falling in the bottom decile of all months’ moves. Playing into that were bottom decile declines in a number of inputs like: inventory plans, expected credit conditions, viewing now as a good time to expand, and capital outlay plans. For that last category, the 7-point drop was actually a record single month decline. That is also only one indicator of a number that point to softening capex and labor market conditions which we discussed in today’s Morning Lineup.
As shown in the table above, breadth in January was weak on the whole. For all categories (both inputs and non-inputs for the headline index), there were ten indices that fell month over month versus six that rose while another two were unchanged. Looking at the decliners, most of the categories are expectation or plans based. Contrary to that weakness in soft data, hard data indices like actual earnings and employment changes were generally the ones that improved versus December.
In the charts below, we create indices tracking the strength of hard and soft data categories in the report. Following the election, the soft data index soared as expectations and optimism massively improved given small business sentiment has a tendency to favor Republicans. The historically strong readings in that index left more muted hard data in the dust. With that said, January saw the soft data index revert lower although it is still at solid levels in the 63rd percentile of readings. Meanwhile, hard data has continued to improve and is now at the highest level since September 2023.
Again, although the January report showed some moderation in small business optimism, reporting firms are still extremely optimistic. For example, the index of Outlook for General Business Conditions pulled back but remains in the top 2% of readings in the survey’s history. Likewise, the share of respondents reporting now as a good time to expand is around some of the highest levels of the past few years.
The NFIB offers a breakdown of reasons given for expansion outlooks. As shown in the second chart below, the strength in positive expansion outlooks has been largely driven by politics. Similarly, those giving uncertain outlooks have less frequently been pointing the finger at politics, however, there was an identical share in January that said costs of expansion was the reason for uncertainty. Unchanged at 7%, that was the highest reading since February 2020. Perhaps most notably, for those reporting an uncertain outlook, a record 22% share blamed economic conditions.
As much as a shifting political landscape has benefitted small business optimism, January did also see an interesting spike higher in the percentage of businesses reporting taxes and government red tape as their biggest issues as the threat of tariffs were quickly introduced. That reading rose to 27% of responses which was the highest since November 2021.
One other indication that Trump’s tariff plans have caused some trepidation among small businesses is the Economic Policy Uncertainty index. As shown below, during election years it is normal for this index to rise sharply. This most recent election was a prime example with the largest election year jump to date. While things moderated significantly in the wake of the election with a 24 point decline from the October report through December (also a record for all prior election years), the most recent reading for January showed a 14 point month over month rebound. Not only is that the largest jump of any inauguration month, but it is also the largest month over month increase in the index’s history.
