Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 2/21/25 – More Pain for UNH
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“You will become way less concerned with what other people think of you when you realize how seldom they do.” – David Foster Wallace
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
If you’re looking at futures on the Dow, it’s not looking like a positive start to the last trading day of the week. Futures on that index are down nearly half of a percent on news that the index’s second most heavily weighted component – UnitedHealth Group (UNH) – is down over 10% following a WSJ report that the Department of Justice has launched an investigation into the company for its billing practices related to its Medicare Advantage plans. Outside of the Dow, though, S&P 500 futures are flat, and the Nasdaq is on pace to open 0.35% higher.
Overnight, Asian markets traded higher to close the week with broad-based gains as Japanese CPI rose 0.5% m/m versus an increase of 0.6% in December. In Europe, stocks have also bounced back from yesterday’s decline with the STOXX 600 trading up over 0.5% putting it back into the black for the week. The gains come despite some mixed PMI readings where the Manufacturing index came in higher than expected (but still in contraction territory). At the same time, the Services PMI, which was above 50, missed expectations.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down less than 0.5% yesterday, but there were some big moves in individual stocks as some of the market’s highest flyers in recent weeks/months were taken out to the woodshed. Among the largest US banks and brokers, the percentage declines may not have been as large as some of the other market areas, but relative to their normal price moves, the declines were large. Of the six large US banks shown below, all of them were down at least 1%, with four down over 3%; JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS) both fell more than 4%.
The moves may have been painful, but putting them in perspective, most of these stocks have seen large gains in recent months. On a six-month chart, they don’t look especially significant. Besides Bank of America (BAC), they were all either at or right near 52-week highs heading into yesterday’s decline.
The Closer – What Drives the Dollar? – 2/20/25
Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.
Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with a look at what drives moves in the dollar (page 1) followed by a look at some discrepancies in the latest jobless claims and Philly Fed data (page 2). We then show some of the mean reversion that has taken place in the past couple of sessions (page 3). Next, we review today’s 30-year TIPS auction (page 4) before closing out with a recap of the latest EIA data (page 5).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Airbnb (ABNB)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Airbnb’s (ABNB) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Airbnb (ABNB) operates a global marketplace for short-term rentals, connecting millions of travelers with unique accommodations in over 220 countries. The company has transformed the hospitality industry by enabling individuals to monetize their properties, offering everything from city apartments to countryside retreats. What sets Airbnb apart is its scale, over 5 billion site visits per year, and its evolving platform, which increasingly integrates AI, flexible payment options, and host services. ABNB’s Q4 revenue grew 12% YoY to $2.5B, driven by product improvements and global expansion. The Co-Host Network hit 100,000 listings, boosting supply and host participation. AI-powered customer support launches in 2025, positioning ABNB as a leader in AI-driven travel experiences. Expansion outside its core markets accelerated, with targeted growth in Brazil and Japan, where bookings are growing twice as fast as mature markets. Regulatory challenges persist, notably in New York, but ABNB is strengthening city partnerships globally. The better-than-expected results were well received as the stock pushed 14.5% higher on 2/14…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for ABNB by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Deere (DE)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Deere’s (DE) Q1 2025 earnings call.
Deere (DE) is a global giant in agricultural, construction, and forestry equipment, manufacturing everything from high-horsepower tractors to precision ag technology. DE has also been at the forefront of autonomous farming and digital connectivity, helping farmers maximize yields and efficiency. The company’s financial services arm supports equipment financing, while its precision ag solutions, like Starlink-enabled JD Link Boost, improve real-time machine monitoring. DE reported a 35% YoY decline in equipment sales to $6.89 billion, reflecting industry-wide weakness in large ag and construction equipment due to high interest rates, macro uncertainty, and rising used inventory. Precision ag adoption remains strong, with over 1,500 orders for its ag essentials kits in Brazil. Large ag field inventory fell 25% YoY, and DE continues underproducing to balance supply. US farm income is expected to rise 22% YoY, supported by $10 billion in government aid, though order velocity remains slow. Construction & forestry faces pricing pressure, leading DE to cut price realization guidance to flat for the year. On mixed results, DE shares fell 2.2% on 2/13. That broke a streak of nine quarters of better-than-expected results…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for DE by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Shake Shack (SHAK)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Shake Shack’s (SHAK) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Shake Shack (SHAK) is a fast-casual restaurant chain known for its premium burgers, crinkle-cut fries, and hand-spun shakes. Originating as a hot dog stand in New York’s Madison Square Park in 2004, it has grown into a global brand with 329 company-operated locations and 250 licensed Shacks across 20 countries. Shake Shack blends high-quality ingredients with a more elevated experience than typical fast food. The company had a strong quarter, with revenue up 14.8% to $328.7M and same-store sales rising 4.3%. The company’s expansion remains aggressive, targeting 1,500 US company-owned Shacks. Labor efficiency was a key driver, with improved scheduling models boosting restaurant margins to 22.7% (+2.9% YoY). Drive-thru and kitchen innovation efforts, including an Atlanta-based Kitchen Innovation Lab, aim to improve speed and consistency. The Truffle Burger, its highest-priced LTO ever, drove strong demand. The company’s new loyalty program is in development, focusing on guest recognition rather than traditional discounts. SHAK climbed more than 14.8% at the open on 2/20 after reporting mixed results…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for SHAK by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Walmart (WMT)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Walmart’s (WMT) Q4 2025 earnings call.
Walmart (WMT) is the world’s largest retailer, known for its aggressive pricing in groceries, general merchandise, and its growing digital business. This quarter, WMT delivered 5.2% sales growth with e-commerce revenue up 16%. The company expanded same-day delivery to 93% of US households, with 30% of customers paying extra for faster service. Advertising revenue grew 29%, while Sam’s Club and Walmart+ memberships continued strong growth. AI-driven automation saved 4 million developer hours, and WMT is doubling down on supply chain efficiency. The company also announced a 13% dividend increase, the biggest in over a decade. Despite persistent food inflation, WMT’s price rollbacks and market share gains signal consumer resilience. Leadership remains bullish on AI, automation, and omni-channel growth. On better-than-expected results, but weaker guidance, WMT shares fell more than 6% on 2/20…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for WMT by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Builders FirstSource (BLDR)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Builders FirstSource’s (BLDR) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Builders FirstSource (BLDR) is the largest supplier of building materials, prefabricated components, and construction services to professional homebuilders, remodelers, and commercial contractors in the US. The company specializes in value-added products like trusses, millwork, and wall panels, along with digital tools that streamline ordering and job site efficiency. Its strong focus on acquisitions has allowed it to expand into high-growth markets. BLDR navigated a tough housing market with an 8% drop in revenue to $3.8 billion, driven by a 29% decline in Multi-Family and a 7% dip in Single-Family sales. Affordability challenges led builders to focus on smaller homes and rate buy-downs. Despite headwinds, BLDR invested $75 million in value-added products and saw $134 million in incremental digital sales, targeting $200 million in 2025. It closed 13 acquisitions, adding $420 million in prior-year sales. Tariffs and labor constraints remain concerns, but BLDR’s prefabrication capabilities could offer a competitive edge. On mixed results, BLDR had an up-and-down day in the market on 2/20…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for BLDR by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Etsy (ETSY)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Etsy’s (ETSY) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Etsy (ETSY) operates a global online marketplace connecting buyers with independent sellers offering handmade, vintage, and unique craft goods. With over 100 million unique items, Etsy stands out in the e-commerce space by putting creativity and personalization over mass production. The platform caters to small business owners, 90% of whom are one-person businesses, with a large percentage being women. Beyond its core marketplace, Etsy owns Depop, a fast-growing fashion resale platform, and Reverb, a music gear marketplace. The company’s Q4 results reflected ongoing struggles with consumer spending shifts, as GMS (Gross Merchandise Sales) declined 6.8% YoY to $3.7 billion, with the core Etsy marketplace down 8.6%. The company is leaning into differentiation with AI-driven quality scoring, improving personalization, and growing its loyalty program. Depop was a bright spot, with GMS up 32%, making it the fastest-growing US fashion resale platform. Reverb saw a 2.6% decline but gained traction with its new Reverb Outlet. Management expects Q1 2025 GMS to decline at a similar rate but sees potential for improvement later in the year. On mixed results, ETSY shares fell 10.1% on 2/19…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for ETSY by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 2/20/25 – High Expectations
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“High expectations are the key to everything.” – Sam Walton
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Walmart (WMT) marked the unofficial end to earnings season this morning by reporting slightly better than expected earnings on inline revenues. The company also lowered guidance for Q1 and the full year. As a result of the lowered guidance, the stock is getting pummeled in the pre-market and is on pace to gap down close to 9%. For many high-growth stocks, a 9% gap down in reaction to earnings may not sound extreme, but WMT has historically been a much less volatile stock. Since 2001, its average one-day move in reaction to earnings has been 2.9%, so if current levels hold through the end of the trading day, today’s move would be more than triple its historical average move.
The table below shows prior earnings reports since 2001 when WMT gapped down by at least 5%. It’s only happened five other times, and it has never gapped down more than 8%, so that would put today’s downside gap on pace to be the most negative gap opening in reaction to earnings since at least 2001. As Sam Walton’s quote above says, high expectations are the key to everything, and when a stock like WMT heads into an earnings report trading for over 37 times earnings and lowers guidance, reactions like this aren’t surprising.
For the broader market this morning, S&P 500 futures indicate a decline of about 0.3% at the open and trade near their lows of the day. Today’s weakness, however, comes just hours after the S&P 500 closed at an all-time high yesterday – its third record closing high of the year. The market doesn’t look like it’s done much since its high in December, but YTD, the S&P 500 has managed a rally of over 4%. We’ve seen some weak housing-related data this week, but today’s economic focus will shift to jobless claims and the Philly Fed at 8:30 and leading indicators at 10 AM. Also on the calendar, we’ll hear from various Fed officials throughout the day, starting with Chicago Fed President Goolsbee just after the opening bell.
The Triple Play Report — 2/19/25
An earnings triple play is a stock that reports earnings and manages to 1) beat analyst EPS estimates, 2) beat analyst sales estimates, and 3) raise forward guidance. You can read more about “triple plays” at Investopedia.com where they’ve given Bespoke credit for popularizing the term. We like triple plays as an indication that a company’s business is firing on all cylinders, with better-than-expected results and an improving outlook. A triple play is indicative of positive “fundamental momentum” instead of pure fundamentals, and there are always plenty of names with both high and low valuations on our quarterly list.
Bespoke’s Triple Play Report highlights companies that have recently reported earnings triple plays, and it features commentary from management on triple-play conference calls, company descriptions and analysis, and price charts. Bespoke’s Triple Play Report is available at the Bespoke Institutional level only. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read this week’s Triple Play Report, which features 30 new stocks. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Bespoke Institutional – Monthly Payment Plan
Bespoke Institutional – Annual Payment Plan
Doximity (DOCS) is an example of a company that recently reported an earnings triple play; its third in a row. The stock was up a staggering 36% the following day (2/7), which comes after very impressive earnings-day reactions last November (+34.2%), August (+38.7%), and May (+18.1%). Since last May’s report in which the company beat estimates but kept guidance inline, DOCS has climbed roughly 250%.
Here’s how AI describes the company: Doximity has emerged as a leading digital platform dedicated to empowering healthcare professionals. By providing a secure, feature-rich environment for physicians and other clinicians, Doximity enables seamless networking, collaboration, and communication among those in the healthcare space. Its innovative telehealth solutions, streamlined physician workflow tools, and personalized medical news feed have garnered widespread adoption, while its robust advertising and recruiting channels have opened new revenue opportunities. As the healthcare industry continues to embrace digital transformation, Doximity is well-positioned to capitalize on this momentum, paving the way for ongoing growth and a stronger presence in the rapidly evolving health tech landscape.
On its most recent earnings report, growth was fueled by top pharma clients (122% net retention), soaring AI adoption (1.8M prompts, +60% QoQ), and expanding workflow tools (610K+ active prescribers). New point-of-care and formulary products doubled YoY, now making up 20% of pharma sales, while multi-module campaigns drove larger deal sizes. The company’s client portal, now used by 50% of brand clients, is scaling further with 10 new agency partners.
Looking at the snapshot below from our Earnings Explorer, Doximity results have been very consistent against estimates since 2022. The stock has beaten both EPS and revenue estimates for 13 straight quarters, and it has raised guidance on each of its last three reports.
You can read more about DOCS and the 29 other triple plays we covered in our newest report by starting a Bespoke Institutional trial today.
Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes all information contained in these reports to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in these reports or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. This is not personalized advice. Investors should do their own research and/or work with an investment professional when making portfolio decisions. As always, past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results. Bespoke representatives or clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.