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“What can a first impression tell us about anyone? Why, no more than a chord can tell us about Beethoven, or a brushstroke about Botticelli.” – Amor Towles

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Asian markets were the first to react to the Venezuela news from Saturday, and the response was positive. Japan’s Nikkei rallied 3% while China’s Shanghai Composite tacked on 1.4%, and South Korea surged 3.4%. India was a notable laggard in a sea of green as IT firms in the country declined after some cautious comments regarding the sector from Citi.

In Europe, the tone to start the week has been more subdued. The STOXX 600 is up 0.3% on modestly negative breadth. Germany is leading the way higher with a gain of 0.6% while Spain is fractionally lower.

In the US, S&P 500 futures are up nearly 0.30% while the Nasdaq is doing much better with a gai of over 0.6%. Treasury yields are little changed, and surprisingly, crude oil is only up fractionally. Gold is surging more than 2% while other metals prices are all up by at least twice that. Even crypto is catching a bid as Bitcoin is up over 1.5% and near $93K. If you’re a bull, it’s nice to see a positive reaction to the weekend news on the first real full trading day of the year, but we’ll be watching to see if the gains can be held through the trading session, which is a job the market has had a tougher time of doing in recent weeks.

With the start of every new year, investors tend to pay a lot of attention to first impressions. A strong start to the year raises hopes of a strong year, while weakness out of the gate causes investors to ask whether the market knows something for the year ahead. With the S&P 500 trading higher on Friday, the logic says that it should bode well for the rest of the year. Right?

Whether stocks trade up or down to start the year is basically meaningless in the grand scheme of things. Going back to 1953, which was the first full year of the five-day trading week in its current form started, we looked to see how the S&P 500 performed on the first trading day of the year and then compared it to how it performed over the next week, the rest of January, the rest of the quarter, the rest of the half, and the rest of the year.

The chart below shows the S&P 500’s median performance following days when it was positive on the first trading day of the year (blue bars) and negative (red bars). Over the following week as well as the rest of the month and quarter, the S&P 500’s median performance was actually better following a down day to start the year than after a positive start. For the rest of the half and the rest of the year, though, performance was better following a positive start to the year. In both cases, though, the difference in returns was modest.

In terms of the consistency of gains based on first-day performance, the S&P 500 has been positive on a slightly more consistent basis following a negative start to the year, versus a positive start. Once again, though, the differences are modest at best.

Not only have first impressions had little bearing on how the market performed going forward, but in recent years, it’s been the opposite. The scatter chart below compares the performance of the S&P 500 on the first trading day of the year (x-axis) to its performance for the rest of the year (y-axis). The random scattering of the dots provides another illustration of the lack of correlation.

One exception, however, has been the last five years (red dots). From 2021 through 2025, the S&P 500 traded down on the first trading day of the year four out of five times. 2022 was the only year that the first trading day was positive, when the S&P 500 traded up 0.64% to kick off the year. From the close on that first day through year-end, the S&P 500 dropped 19.95%. In the four other years when the S&P 500 traded down on the first trading day of the year, the S&P 500 rallied anywhere between 16.7% and 28.8% for the rest of the year. You would never base a prediction for the outcome of a baseball game on whether the first pitch was a ball or a strike, so don’t base your outlook for the year on which way the market trades on a day when most people were out of the office anyway. Even if it was higher.

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“The only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing.” – Socrates

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

As we approached the turn of the calendar, December was flooded with market outlooks for the year ahead, which always present the reader with highly confident expectations for the year ahead. Reading through most of them, the blueprint for the year ahead looks certain – solid earnings growth, two to three rate cuts, higher but stable inflation, and steady economic growth.  It’s almost as though the outcome for 2026 has been pre-ordained. If only life were that simple.

All you had to do was watch last night’s Ole Miss/Georgia game to be reminded that even when everyone thinks they know what’s “going” to happen, it’s not uncommon for the opposite to play out. In the week leading up to last night’s game, prediction markets were giving Ole Miss less than a one in three chance of winning. After the game started, the odds for Ole Miss got worse, falling below 20% for much of the game. When the game finally ended just before midnight, though, it was Ole Miss on top by a score of 39-34. Whether it’s in sports, your personal life, or the markets, just because everyone seems to agree on what’s going to happen doesn’t mean that’s what will play out.  Expect surprises.

After the weakness to close out 2025, investors are probably surprised to see futures looking so strong this morning. S&P 500 futures are pointing to a 0.57% gain to start the year, while the Nasdaq is on pace for a 1% gain. The 10-year yield is little changed at 4.15% while crude oil is down fractionally at just above $57 per barrel. After a volatile end to 2025, metals have picked up right where they left off last year, but this time on a positive note. Gold is up over 1%, while silver and platinum are up over 4% each.

In Asia, Japan and China were closed, but other major indices in the region traded on a positive note, with Hong Kong up 2.8% and South Korea jumping 2.3%. The only economic indicator of note in the region was South Korea’s manufacturing PMI, which moved slightly back into expansionary territory at a level of 50.1.

European stocks are also positive this morning, with the STOXX 600 up 0.5%, led higher by Italy and Spain with gains of 0.6% each. The gains come despite generally weaker than expected manufacturing PMI readings for the region, where the Eurozone slid further into contraction, and Germany’s reading fell from 48.2 to 47.0.

While futures are higher to kick off 2026, 2025 ended like a 500-pound bag of rocks, or more accurately, 482 rocks. The S&P 500 dropped 0.74%, which wasn’t the worst decline considering breadth was exceptionally bad with 482 index members declining versus only 19 rising.  We consider an all-or-nothing day when breadth is +/-400, meaning at least 90% of the S&P 500’s constituents rose or fell.  Wednesday was the first all-or-nothing day since July 15, when net breadth was -404. As shown in the table below, the first all-or-nothing day in at least three months has typically been followed by gains, but not particularly stronger or weaker than the long-term average.  That’s also the case when the first day in at least three months is a ‘nothing’ day like Wednesday was. With that said, in the near term (one week and one month), median returns have been a little bit weaker than all periods after those instances.

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“For eleven months and maybe about twenty days each year, we concentrate upon the shortcomings of others, but for a few days at the turn of the New Year we look at our own. It is a good habit.” – Arthur Hays Sulzberger

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

We made it (almost) through another year. Regardless of your political leanings, one thing we can all probably agree on is that with Trump as President, there’s never a dull moment.  It was true in his first term, and the first year of his second term has proved no different. For all the uncertainty and volatility this year, though, it’s ironic to think that the VIX is closing out 2025 at under 15 and not far from its lows of the year!

Futures are lower this morning, with the S&P 500 indicated to open 0.21% lower while the Nasdaq is down 0.30%.  A decline today would make it four straight days of declines to close out the year. Despite the gains for the year, 2025 is going out with a whimper.

Outside of equities, the 10-year US Treasury yield is down 2 bps to 4.1% while crude oil is fractionally higher. While most areas of the financial markets are quiet today, the real action is in metals, where the CME has lifted margin requirements for the second time in a week! Gold is down 1.6%, while silver is down over 8% and platinum is sinking over 10%. Silver is on pace for its fourth straight day of 7.5% daily moves, while platinum has had four straight 5%+ daily moves.

In Asia overnight, the Nikkei was closed, but most other indices in the region finished the last trading day of the year higher as China’s manufacturing PMI moved slightly back into expansionary territory (50.1) and came in higher than expected. In Europe, the tone is less positive this morning as the STOXX 600 trades down 0.2% in a session where many countries are closed for trading, and those that are open will close early. Technology is leading the losses with a decline of 0.6%.

Equities are on pace to close out the last session of the year with losses, and that’s a trend that has become increasingly common in recent years. The chart below shows the S&P 500’s historical performance on the last trading day of the year since 1953. The S&P 500’s median performance has been a gain of 0.14% with positive returns 58.3% of the time.

While the long-term performance has been positive, more recent returns have been weaker. If the S&P 500 finishes lower today, it would be the fifth straight year that the index traded lower on the last session of the year, and that would be the longest streak since at least 1953. Besides just the last four years, though, the pattern of the last trading day of the year has been lower. Since 2000, the S&P 500’s median change on the last trading day of the year has been a decline of 0.28%, with gains less than a third of the time. If there’s any consolation for bulls, in years when the S&P 500 was up over 15% YTD heading into the final session of the year, the median gain on the final day has been a gain of 0.29%, with gains 64% of the time, while in all other years, the median gain was just 0.5%.

When we turn the calendar to 2026 on Friday, market performance on the first trading day of the year hasn’t been great either. Since 1953, the S&P 500’s median change to start a new year was a decline of 0.3% with gains just under half of the time. The equity market has also traded lower on the first trading day of the year in each of the last three years and four of the last five. Maybe the best idea is to take off until Monday!

Before getting to this morning’s pre-market analysis, be sure to watch this CNBC segment with Bespoke’s Paul Hickey discussing the market’s set-up heading into 2026.

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“I wake up every day and I can’t wait to go to work, and that’s a gift. Not too many people have the opportunity to feel that way.” – Tiger Woods

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

On another likely quiet day for the US markets, futures are lower, but no major index is indicated to open down more than 0.05%, so it wouldn’t take more than a sneeze to flip things around to the positive side. In most other areas of the market, current action is also subdued as treasury yields, crude oil, and crypto assets are all modestly higher. The one area that remains volatile is in the metals markets, as gold is up nearly 2%, while silver is up over 7% and platinum is up over 5%.  We saw big negative reversals in these markets yesterday, so if you’re a bull on the sector, you’re breathing a sigh of relief today.

It will be a somewhat busy day for data today as we’ll get the weekly ADP Employment, FHFA House Price Index, and the Chicago PMI for December. The latter report always seems to be negative these days, but expectations are already low at 39.5. In addition to these three reports, we’ll also get the minutes from the December Fed meeting.

In Asia overnight and Europe this morning, it was a tale of two markets as Asia was mostly lower while Europe experienced broad-based gains.

We’re obviously in one of the least volatile periods of the year for stocks, and the chart below illustrates that trend. When it comes to the daily volume in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) relative to its 200-DMA, Christmas Eve ranks as the day with the least volume of any day of the year, when the median daily volume has been 62.5% below its 200-DMA. The next closest day in terms of low volume is July 3rd, when the median daily volume has been 51.4% below its 200-DMA.  It makes sense that these two days would be quiet, given that they precede holidays, but they’re also both days when the market closes early, so the window for trading is shorter.

What was surprising about this chart is when the high-volume days tend to occur. With September and October being the most volatile months of the year, you would expect to see volume spikes during those months as well. While volume tends to come in above average during the fall, the period of highest volume relative to the 200-DMA occurs in late February and March.

One area of the market where volumes weren’t light yesterday was in the commodities market, and more specifically, Silver. The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) had its highest volume day since February 2021, and after hitting a record high last Friday, plunged over 7%, forming a massive island reversal. As shown in the chart below, the gaps between last Friday’s trading range and the day before (Thursday) and the day after (Monday) were extremely wide, with more than a full percentage point separating the sessions on both sides.