Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/10/25 – Giving Some Back
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“Self-praise is for losers. Be a winner. Stand for something. Always have class and be humble.” – John Madden
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After one of the largest one-day gains in market history yesterday, we’re giving back some of the gains this morning as the S&P 500 is indicated to open 1.75% lower while the Nasdaq is down 2%. European stocks are surging with the STOXX 600 up over 5%, and in Asia overnight, the Nikkei was up over 9% while China saw more muted gains.
We just got March CPI, and the headline and core readings were weaker than expected. Headline CPI dropped 0.1% while core CPI increased just 0.1% versus expectations for an increase of 0.3%. In recent history, this report would send futures sharply higher, but given the looming tariffs, the markets may view it as somewhat stale. Jobless claims were right in line with expectations, ending a streak of five better-than-expected reports. Given concerns over the economy, initial claims have been contained.
As big as yesterday’s move was in the S&P 500, it’s crazy to think that it is still down over 3.5% since last Wednesday’s close and well below both its 50 and 200-day moving averages.
In terms of where various sectors are trading relative to their short-term trading ranges, nine out of eleven are still at oversold levels (1+ standard deviations below their 50-DMAs), and that accounts for yesterday’s big gains!
In yesterday’s session, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) traded in an incredible intraday range of 10.8%. Even crazier is that on Tuesday, the intraday range was 7.3% while Monday’s range was 8.6%! Since SPY was launched in 1993, the last three days represent just the sixth time that the ETF has had an intraday range of more than 5% for three or more days. The only periods with as many or more consecutive intraday ranges of at least 5% were in the fourth quarter of 2008 (four separate occurrences) and March 2020. These levels of sustained volatility are truly historic.
The Closer – Tariff Chaos, Momentum Shift, Fed – 4/9/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, after a wild session, we start by reviewing the latest tariff news (page 1) in addition to the reaction across assets (page 2 and 3). Focusing in on equities, we also show just how strong breadth was (page 4) and the incredible turnaround in momentum (page 5). After a review of the latest Fed developments (page 6), we finish by reviewing today’s very strong 10-year note reopening (page 7).
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Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Delta Air Lines (DAL)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Delta Air Lines’ (DAL) Q1 2025 earnings call.
Delta Air Lines (DAL) is one of the largest global airlines, offering passenger and cargo service to more than 275 destinations across six continents. DAL generates a significant portion of its revenue from premium seating, international travel, and a lucrative co-branded credit card partnership with American Express. The airline is a key barometer for consumer and corporate travel trends. DAL recorded March quarter revenue of $13 billion, but flagged a more difficult operating environment. Domestic main cabin demand was notably weak, prompting plans to cut second-half capacity growth to flat, with specific reductions in off-peak days and Southeastern markets. Premium and loyalty revenues remained resilient, with Amex remuneration up 13% and premium revenue up 7%. International bookings stayed strong, especially on transatlantic and Pacific routes. Executives also warned of tariff risks, stating they won’t accept deliveries of Airbus aircraft with a 20% surcharge. No full-year guidance was given due to macro uncertainty. On better-than-expected results, DAL shares were up as much as 23.4% on 4/9…
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Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: WD-40 (WDFC)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers WD-40’s (WDFC) Q2 2025 earnings call.
WD-40 (WDFC) is best known for its namesake Multi-Use Product, a household and industrial lubricant with global brand recognition. Beyond its iconic blue and yellow can, the company develops a range of maintenance products, including the WD-40 Specialist line, serving end users in automotive, industrial, and DIY markets across more than 176 countries. With a lean product portfolio and asset-light model, WDFC offers a window into global industrial demand, distributor dynamics, and consumer-level brand loyalty. WDFC reported 5% sales growth in Q2, or 9% in constant currency, led by double-digit volume gains in EIMEA and a $3.4M lift from Brazil’s new direct distribution model. Premium product sales rose sharply (Smart Straw/EZ Reach up 11%, Specialist up 12%) and e-commerce sales climbed 9% YTD. Gross margin hit 54.6%, up 220 bps, driven by lower can and chemical costs. Supply chain optimizations are expected to offset potential tariff impacts this year. WDFC is actively marketing its homecare and cleaning brands for divestiture, aiming to sharpen its focus on higher-margin maintenance products. Despite rising 3% at the open on 4/8, the stock reversed to end the day almost 9% lower…
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Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Dave & Buster’s (PLAY)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) operates a chain of entertainment and dining venues that combine full-service restaurants with large-scale arcades. It appeals to a wide demographic, from families and young adults to corporate event groups. What’s notable is its high ROI on new store builds and innovative game rollouts that keep guests engaged and returning. This quarter’s call centered on undoing strategic missteps by prior leadership. Interim CEO Kevin Sheehan outlined a full operational reset, including a return to TV advertising, simplified promotions like the “Eat & Play Combo,” and reversing unpopular menu changes. A major refresh of arcade offerings is underway, including new attractions like the “Human Crane” and exclusive games such as UFC Challenge and Godzilla VR. Remodel efforts are being slowed and retooled for ROI, while traffic trends in March and April showed marked improvement. PLAY shares gapped up 13.8%, but those gains were completely erased intraday and the stock closed about 2% in the red…
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/9/25 – China Responds
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“One should always be drunk. That’s all that matters…But with what? With wine, with poetry, or with virtue, as you chose. But get drunk.” ― Charles Baudelaire, Paris Spleen
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After announcing the reciprocal tariffs in the Rose Garden last week, the President and members of his administration warned other countries not to retaliate. Why they thought some of our largest trade partners would sit back and “take their medicine” with no response is beyond us. This morning, China shot back with its response announcing 84% tariffs on US imports. Futures, which were lower overnight and rallied into the morning, are now back near their lows of the after-hours session, and the S&P 500 looks like it will be on pace to close 20%+ from its record close on 2/19. Up and down, it goes and where it stops nobody knows. Looking on the bright side, while the retaliatory tariffs announced by China have knocked futures lower, it didn’t come with a significant devaluation of the yuan which would have arguably made things worse.
The volatility and magnitude of declines we have experienced over the last several days and weeks is unprecedented. The S&P 500 is on pace for one of its fastest-ever 20% declines from an all-time high. Over the shorter term, consider this. On Monday, the Nasdaq traded down more than 4% on an intraday basis and finished the day higher. Then, on Tuesday, the Nasdaq traded over 4% higher intraday and then finished lower. Back-to-back opposite moves of that magnitude have never happened, and the next closest was in October 2008 when there was a similar reversal of 3%.
Regardless of what the market does today, the Nasdaq’s 50-day moving average (DMA) will cross below the 200-DMA as both are trending lower, forming what technicians call an iron, or death cross.
Today’s moving average crossover will end the fourth-longest streak of the 50-DMA settling above the 200-DMA. At 519 trading days, it was the longest streak since November 2018, and the only two other streaks that were longer ended in September 2015 and September 1998.
The Closer – Bond Selloff, SPY Sputters, Yuan Down – 4/8/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a note on the sell off in bonds and commodities (page 1) and then a look at the intraday reversal in equities (pages 2 and 3). We then dive into the selloff in the Chinese Yuan (page 4 and 5).
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Biggest Jumps in Dividend Yields
While the tariff situation has created a great deal of uncertainty and stock prices have crashed in tow, one silver lining is that dividend yields have at least ticked up. Currently, the S&P 500’s dividend yield of 1.64% is the highest it has been since November 2023. For the average member that pays a dividend, it has seen a 33 bps increase in its yield, up to 2.58%. Additionally, there are 59 S&P 500 members that now have a higher yield than the 10-year Treasury. Of course, the impact of tariffs could materially impact earnings and hence their ability to pay a dividend at all, but holding that conversation aside, below we show the S&P 500 members that have seen the largest increases in their dividend yields since the sell-off began on February 19. Of all members of the index, there are 34 to have seen a full percentage point increase in their yields as a result of the declines since the S&P’s high. The largest increase has come from Dow (DOW) which now yields over 10% after falling over 30% since 2/19. That is also the single highest yield of all S&P 500 members. Of the rest of the list below, there are another five stocks that now rank in the top ten highest yields: LyondellBassell (LYB), Pfizer (PFE), Franklin Resources (BEN), APA Corp (APA), and United Parcel Services (UPS).
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/8/25 – End of the Streak?
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Learn to use your emotions to think, not think with your emotions.” – Robert Kiyosaki
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The wild ride of market moves continued overnight as the Nikkei 225 rallied 6% after falling more than 7% on Monday. That’s just the ninth time in the last 45 years that the index has rallied 5%+ after falling more than 5% in the prior session. Along with those days, there have only been two other days when the Nikkei fell more than 5% after rising 5% in the previous session. The Nikkei’s move was extreme, but we’ve seen volatile back-and-forth action in equity markets worldwide this week.
This morning, futures are building on some of yesterday’s intraday strength in US stocks on optimism that several countries are looking to make a trade deal with the Trump Administration. This doesn’t mean deals will happen, but at least conversations are taking place which buys some time for a pause in the selling. With this optimism, US equity futures are indicated higher, and that would end what has been a streak of nine straight days where the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) opened the day lower. In yesterday’s Chart of the Day, we covered that streak and how the market has historically performed following prior streaks of similar or longer durations, so make sure to give that a look.
They call the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) a gauge of the stock market’s psychological state, and higher levels indicate a more emotional state for the market. Yesterday, the market got as emotional as a high school senior looking for a prom date. It closed at an extraordinarily high level of 46.98, but intraday it briefly traded above 60, which it has only done on 52 other trading days since 1990!
The chart of the S&P 500 below shows every time the VIX traded above 60 on an intraday basis since 1990. The only other times were in Q4 2008, during Covid in 2020, and one day last August. In retrospect, these periods turned out to be good buying opportunities although the market remained volatile in the short-term. Following the occurrences in Q4 2008, for example, the S&P 500 didn’t bottom until early March, but on an internal basis, that marked the low as most stocks bottomed in Q4 2008. Like a child, markets sometimes find themselves in a tantrum or emotional spiral, but more often than not, a pause, and a deep breath are enough to get things to calm down.
The Closer – Poetic Price Action, Internals, Delinquencies – 4/7/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with commentary regarding the immense volatility in today’s session and the catalysts that drove those swings (page 1). We then dive into the just how few stocks are trading above their 200-DMAs (page 2) in addition to decile breakdowns of other factors (page 3). We then close out with a look at the dollar and credit (page 4) and the latest mortgage delinquency data (page 5).
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