Rest of World Pulls Ahead
In today’s Morning Lineup, we discussed how the US is experiencing near-historic underperformance relative to the rest of the world so far this year. Obviously, there’s still a lot of time left, considering February isn’t even over yet. However, the US S&P 500 (SPY) is basically unchanged YTD following today’s declines, whereas the rest of the world (ACWX) is closing in on a double-digit gain. Looking at more specific areas, below we show the year-to-date performance of various regional ETFs. As shown, the S&P 500 has been utterly left in the dust. Meanwhile, Asia excluding Japan (AAXJ) is up 12.6%, Emerging Markets (EEM) are up 12.8%, and Latin America (ILF) is up 20% in under two months.
Those big moves this year—some of which are in the context of larger moves across recent months and years—have also resulted in some interesting technical developments. For ILF, the past two decades’ downtrend is now firmly in the rearview as the ETF approaches early-2018 highs.
As for EM, the past month has seen that ETF reach some of its first all-time highs since 2021.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 2/23/26 – US Hockey Picks Up the Slack of US Stocks
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“I don’t know what happened. It was just euphoria. I can’t even explain what I was feeling, just pure joy.” – Charlie McAvoy
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Confusion regarding the state of global trade following Friday’s Supreme Court decision striking down the President’s reciprocal tariffs has futures lower to kick off the week. The fact that some form of armed conflict with Iran looks increasingly likely also hasn’t helped. As if that weren’t enough, while the blizzard in the northeast doesn’t have any direct market impact right now, it has effectively paralyzed a central area of economic activity for the day, and air traffic, so it will have some economic impact as well. Crude oil is fractionally higher at close to $67 per barrel; gold is up 2% and looks to be making a new run at its January highs; and silver is up over 5%. Bitcoin, however, is down 2% as some investors are starting to question whether it’s even an effective store of value anymore.
Overnight in Asia, China remains closed for the Lunar New Year, and Japan is also closed, but South Korean stocks traded up nearly 1%, which nowadays doesn’t even register as an impressive move. In Europe, the STOXX 600 is down modestly in a mixed session where Italy and Spain are both up roughly 1% while Germany dips about 0.5%. The disparate performances stem from strength in banks and weakness in industrials (more German-focused).
Datawise, there’s not a lot on the calendar today. At 8:30, we got the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. That will be followed by Factory Orders at 10, and the Dallas Fed at 10:30. Fed Governor Waller is also speaking this morning, and he’s on the wires saying that a March rate cut will depend on the state of the labor market, which he sees as likely remaining weak going forward, citing potential pressures from AI.
The US is on top of the hockey world this morning after Sunday’s dramatic OT win, and investors are hoping some of those gold-medal vibes rub off on the stock market. As we highlighted in Friday’s Bespoke Report, through the first several weeks of 2026, US stocks have underperformed stocks from the rest of the world to a near-historic degree. As shown in the chart below, the only year since 1980 when the S&P 500 underperformed the rest of the world by a wider margin was in 1984, and barely at that.
The graphic below puts the short-term US underperformance into even better perspective. Major international regional equity ETFs headed into the weekend on power plays at overbought levels (1+ standard deviation above their 50-DMAs), while the US was short-handed in penalty-killing mode and scrapping to get back above its 50-day moving average. YTD, European equities, as measured by the FTSE Europe ETF (VGK) were outperforming the S&P 500 by more than six full percentage points, but the other four regional ETFs shown were all outperforming by at least 10 full percentage points, with Latin America (ILF) outperforming by 20 percentage points – in less than two months! How the lines have shifted!
A look at the six price charts also shows the disparity between US and international stocks. Five of the charts shown are in clear, well-defined uptrends, while the US has been stuck in neutral between the blue lines, unable to push the puck into the zone, but also successfully fighting off any bearish attacks into their defensive zone.
Brunch Reads – 2/22/26
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
Do You Believe in Miracles?: Today is the gold medal game for the men’s ice hockey tournament at the 2026 Olympics. So, in the spirit of that, we have to revisit a monumental event in 1980 that took place on this day in Lake Placid, New York. A group of American college hockey players led by coach Herb Brooks, defeated the heavily favored Soviet Union national ice hockey team 4–3 in a game that became known simply as the “Miracle on Ice.” It was not the gold medal game, but it was the moment that defined those Olympics.
The Soviet team had dominated international hockey for nearly two decades in the build-up to the Miracle on Ice, winning four of the previous five Olympic gold medals and routinely dismantling NHL competition in exhibitions. Just months earlier, they had beaten the US 10–3 at Madison Square Garden. In contrast, the American roster was the youngest in the tournament, composed largely of amateur and collegiate players. Keep in mind, NHL players were not allowed to play in the Olympics at the time under a strict amateur-only rule. The Soviets got around this rule by sending players who were technically employed in other professions but played hockey full-time in the well-oiled machine that was USSR hockey, unlike anything the world had seen.
The stakes extended well beyond hockey. The Cold War framed everything. The Soviet Union had invaded Afghanistan weeks earlier. The US faced economic anxiety and the ongoing Iran hostage crisis. President Jimmy Carter was threatening a boycott of the upcoming Moscow Summer Olympics. When the puck dropped, the expected script seemed ready to unfold. The Soviets controlled possession and fired relentlessly at American goaltender Jim Craig. But the US answered each Soviet goal, keeping the score within reach. In the third period, with the score tied 3–3, captain Mike Eruzione found the net to give the Americans a 4–3 lead.
As the final seconds ticked away, broadcaster Al Michaels delivered a line that would echo through sports history: “Do you believe in miracles? YES!” In the realm of sports, it was certainly a miracle for a team of amateurs to defeat a state-sponsored powerhouse, but it also felt especially important in the context of the Cold War that a hockey game in upstate New York could bear so much weight. Two days later, the USA defeated Finland to secure the gold medal.
In 2004, Disney retold the story in the film Miracle, starring Kurt Russell as Herb Brooks. The movie reintroduced the discipline, tension, and improbable triumph of Lake Placid to a new generation, cementing the game’s place in American memory.
AI & Technology
An AI Agent Published a Hit Piece on Me – More Things Have Happened (The Shamblog)
A developer who rejected an AI agent’s code contribution to a popular Python library was targeted by a personalized, AI-written hit piece designed to shame him into accepting the changes, and a quarter of online commenters actually sided with the bot. The deeper concern isn’t about AI in open source, it’s that autonomous agents can now research individuals, publish convincing defamatory content at scale, and do it all without any traceable human accountability. [Link]
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The Bespoke Report – 2/20/26 – Well, You Got What You Wanted
Four months ago, the S&P 500 had rallied more than 35% off its tariff-tantrum lows from six months earlier in one of the most impressive rallies we’ve ever seen. The S&P 500 and just about every other US equity index was trading at short-term overbought levels, though, and prominent strategists and investors advised that the market needed to pause and digest the big gains. The rally also needed to broaden as mega-caps couldn’t lead forever.
Well, we got what we wanted.
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 2/20/26 – Busy Data Day
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“I have a theory that the truth is never told during the nine-to-five hours.” – Hunter Thompson
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Ahead of a busy economic data day and possibly an important Supreme Court ruling, equity futures are modestly lower across the board, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all indicated lower by about 0.20%. The 10-year yield is down close to two basis points to 4.06%, and crude oil is fractionally lower as comments from the President suggest that if there is going to be a strike against Iran, it won’t come this weekend, and even if there is, it’s likely to be targeted initially. Gold prices are up 1% and back about $5,000, and Bitcoin is also fractionally higher.
Japanese stocks traded 1.1% lower and closed out the week with a modest decline, and the Hang Seng traded down by the same amount. South Korean stocks bucked the trend, though, and rallied more than 2%, finishing the week up 5.5% in just two days of trading!
European stocks are finishing the week on a more positive note, with the STOXX 600 up 0.4% and taking its WTD gain to more than 1.5%. Every major index in the region is higher on the session, and except Germany, they’re all up over 1% for the week. Flash PMI for the manufacturing sector was better than expected, while the Services PMI was slightly weaker. On the inflation front, PPI in Germany showed an unexpected decline of 0.6% versus forecasts for an increase of 0.3%.
Yesterday marked the unofficial end of earnings season, with Walmart (WMT) reporting before the open. While the equity market had a muted to modestly negative performance this earnings season, there were plenty of earnings triple plays (companies that reported better than expected earnings and revenues and raised guidance). Since earnings season started in early January, 100 companies reported triple plays, and in the chart below, we break those names out by sector.
While it’s been one of the worst-performing sectors this year, the Technology sector has easily had the most earnings triple plays with 43. That’s more than double the next closest sector – Industrials, and is also more than the total of the other top four sectors combined! At the other end of the spectrum, not a single stock in the Energy sector reported a triple play, while the Materials and Utilities sectors each had one apiece.
Within the Technology sector, it’s also interesting to look at where the Triple Plays have come from. Leading the way, 17 of the tech sector Triple Plays have come from semiconductor companies, which should come as no surprise, given the group’s performance this year. Next on the list, though, is software with 13 stocks. Even as the group has been slaughtered this year, there’s no shortage of companies in the group exceeding results and raising guidance. This illustrates again that while these companies may not yet be feeling the impact of AI on their businesses, it’s the long-term that investors are more worried about.
The Closer – Doves Fly, Breadth Disconnect, Repo – 2/19/26
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with some commentary regarding the latest pivots in Fedspeak in addition to the latest earnings reports (page 1). Next up, we show this year’s disconnect between price and breadth (page 2) before switching into an overview of the latest happenings in repo markets (page 3). We then round out tonight’s report with reviews of trade data (page 4) and regional manufacturing and jobless claims figures (page 5).
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The Triple Play Report: 2/13/26 – 2/18/26
An earnings triple play is a stock that reports earnings and manages to 1) beat analyst EPS estimates, 2) beat analyst sales estimates, and 3) raise forward guidance. You can read more about “triple plays” at Investopedia.com where they’ve given Bespoke credit for popularizing the term. We like triple plays as an indication that a company’s business is firing on all cylinders, with better-than-expected results and an improving outlook. A triple play is indicative of positive “fundamental momentum” instead of pure fundamentals, and there are always plenty of names with both high and low valuations on our quarterly list.
Bespoke’s Triple Play Report covers what each company does, what this quarter’s results say about their growth outlooks, and their histories of delivering triple plays. Bespoke’s Triple Play Report is available at the Bespoke Institutional level only. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read today’s Triple Play Report. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
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Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes all information contained in these reports to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in these reports or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. This is not personalized advice. Investors should do their own research and/or work with an investment professional when making portfolio decisions. As always, past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results. Bespoke representatives or clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.
B.I.G. Tips – Earnings Triple Plays Recap: Q4 2025
During the just-completed Q4 2025 earnings reporting period, there were a total of 98 earnings triple plays out of just over 1,100 individual quarterly earnings reports from US-listed stocks. That’s 110 fewer than the 208 triple plays we saw during the prior earnings reporting period.
What is a triple play? When a stock reports quarterly earnings, it registers a “triple play” when it beats analyst EPS estimates, beats analyst revenue estimates, and raises forward guidance. We coined the term back in the mid-2000s, and you can read more about it at Investopedia.com. We consider triple plays to be the cream of the crop of earnings season, and we’re constantly finding new long-term opportunities from this basket of names each quarter. You can track the newest earnings triple plays on a daily basis at our Triple Plays page if you’re a Bespoke Premium or Bespoke Institutional member.
To read our quarterly triple play recap and see some of the triple plays with intriguing price charts at the moment, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium!
Best Start for Consumer Staples in 35+ Years
Through the first 30 trading days of 2026, the Consumer Staples sector gained 15.6%. That’s easily the best start to a year for Staples since at least 1990 (when our daily sector price data begins). Prior to 2026, the strongest start to a year for Staples was a 9.2% gain through the first 30 trading days of 1997.
While Consumer Staples has been soaring, the cyclical Consumer Discretionary sector has been declining, falling 5% through the year’s first 30 trading days.
With Staples up 15% and Discretionary down 5%, the 20 percentage point spread between the two is a new record through 30 trading days (going back to 1990). No other years have been even remotely close.
The surge in Staples to start 2026 has left the defensive Staples sector ETF (XLP) up more than Consumer Discretionary (XLY) over the last twelve months. The chart below resembles the classic “tortoise and the hare” race, doesn’t it? Staples slowly moved sideways throughout the first half of 2025 and then slowed even more in the last five months of the year. Discretionary plummeted to start 2025 during the tariff tantrum but then decided to start competing after the first quarter mile. Discretionary surged past Staples last August and didn’t look back. That is until the calendar year turned to 2026. While Discretionary took a breather, Staples came from behind down the final stretch to win the race! Of course, in markets, the race is never over, but you get the point.
The reason Consumer Discretionary has been so weak is because its two largest stocks have struggled to start the year. As shown below, Amazon (AMZN) is down 11.5% YTD, while Tesla (TSLA) is down 8.5%. These two stocks have a combined market cap that’s nearly $1 trillion bigger than the combined market cap of the remaining 46 stocks in the sector!
Of the 15 largest Consumer Discretionary stocks shown in the graphic below, ten are actually up on the year.
The performance of the 15 largest Consumer Staples stocks to start the year has been eye-popping. Each of the seven largest Consumer Staples stocks are up 10%+ on the year, while all 15 stocks listed are in the green.
There’s a way to get around the top-heaviness of the market, though, and that’s by focusing on the equal-weight versions of sector and index ETFs.
As shown below, the equal-weight versions of Consumer Staples (RSPS) and Consumer Discretionary (RSPD) are much more closely aligned over the past year. That’s because the average stock in the Consumer Discretionary sector has done better than Amazon (AMZN) and Tesla (TSLA) in recent months.
If you’d like to simply bet on the average stock in a sector rather than having more exposure to the biggest stocks, we created the graphic below that lists ETF options for both cap-weighted and equal-weighted S&P 500 sectors.
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Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Leidos (LDOS)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Leidos’ (LDOS) Q4 2025 earnings call.
Leidos (LDOS) is a national security, defense technology, and health services company serving the US Department of War, the intelligence community, the Veterans Administration, the FAA, and allied governments. It operates across integrated air defense systems, cyber, space payloads, unmanned maritime vehicles, IT modernization, energy infrastructure engineering, and managed health services. LDOS delivered a strong 2025 despite a six-week government shutdown, growing adjusted EBITDA margins 120 basis points to 14.1% and non-GAAP EPS by 17%. The company posted back-to-back quarters of 1.3x book-to-bill, with $7 billion in awards slipping from Q4 into 2026 and $20 billion in pending awards. Management is tripling CapEx to $350 million to scale production on IFPC (Indirect Fire Protection Capability) missile defense, hypersonics, and maritime autonomy programs, while negotiating co-investment frameworks with the Department of War. The $2.4 billion ENTRUST acquisition positions Leidos as a leading US energy engineering firm. Guidance calls for up to 4% revenue growth in 2026, accelerating toward double digits by year-end, with Golden Dome funding and FAA modernization flagged as upside catalysts not yet incorporated into guidance. LDOS reported better-than-expected EPS on weaker revenue, as the stock fell 8% on 2/17…
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