NVIDIA (NVDA) is up nearly 2,000% over the last five years, but would you believe that there’s another stock — a non-AI stock — that’s up even more?

As shown below, while NVDA is up 1,937% since February 2019, cosmetics-maker e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) has that number beat with an even bigger gain of 2,639%!

While the two are in completely different industries, one thing they have in common is their penchant for reporting earnings triple plays.  As a reminder, an earnings triple play occurs when a stock reports earnings and 1) beats analyst EPS estimates, 2) beats analyst sales estimates, and 3) raises forward guidance.

As shown in the snapshot from our interactive Earnings Explorer below, NVIDIA (NVDA) has now reported five earnings triple plays in a row.

e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) has that topped, though, with seven triple plays in a row dating back to August 2022!

If you’re interested in reading about more stocks that have recently reported earnings triple plays, start a Bespoke Institutional (All Access) trial today and access our latest Triple Play Report (thumbnail preview below).

After some weakness overnight, prices in the crypto space have seen a significant turnaround today.  Bitcoin, for example, has rallied nearly 5% from its lows earlier in the session and is back to new 52-week highs.  When the Bitcoin ETFs were first launched back on January 11th, prices immediately dropped by more than 20% in what looked like another sell-the-news event surrounding a Bitcoin milestone. As shown in the chart, though, in just the last month alone, the largest cryptocurrency has rallied more than 25%.

The rally in Bitcoin has also helped to dig it out of the hole it has been in for more than two years. After falling just short of $68,000 per coin in November 2021, bitcoin declined by more than 75%, but after more than tripling in less than 15 months, it is now just a little bit more than 20% from its prior all-time high. Will 2024 be the year?

Even more impressive than the recent rally in Bitcoin has been Ethereum’s run. Over the last month alone, the second-largest crypto has rallied 39%. That’s more than Nvidia (NVDA)!  Despite the monster rally over the last month, though, Ethereum remains 35% below its November 2021 high of $4,800.

Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of the favorite things we read over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.

While you’re here, join Bespoke Premium with a 30-day trial!

On This Day in History:

These Teenagers Know More About Investing Than You Do (WSJ)
Teens, with the help of their parents, are venturing into the world of investing, owning shares in major companies like Tesla, Apple, and Amazon.com. The number of custodial accounts at Schwab is up from 120,000 in 2019 to more than 300,000 in 2023. It’s part of a trend that originated during the pandemic when new investors began trading to capitalize on the market’s downturn. Hot tech stocks that today’s youth know well have also brought attention to the benefits of investing. Many are even learning about investing through the Internet’s influencers on platforms like YouTube. [Link]

You can put a price tag on the value of a personal finance education: $100,000 (CNBC)
A personal finance class in high school can yield a lifetime benefit of approximately $100,000 per student by teaching crucial financial management skills, such as avoiding high-interest debt and improving credit scores. This knowledge not only benefits the students but also has a positive ripple effect on families and communities. Many school districts are even requiring the classes as research links financial literacy to significant improvements in financial well-being, including higher savings rates, better credit scores, and lower delinquency rates. [Link]

AI & Technology

Generative AI’s environmental costs are soaring — and mostly secret (Nature)
With all the hype behind AI, it doesn’t sound like anyone wants to address the elephant in the room. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has acknowledged the AI industry’s looming energy crisis, noting the substantial power consumption expected from future generative AI systems. Without a significant energy breakthrough, AI’s energy demands could outpace current systems. The environmental impact of AI extends beyond energy to include significant water use for cooling data centers, as seen with OpenAI’s GPT-4 and other large models from tech giants. There’s tons of work to be done, especially coming from Altman who has proposed massive investment to fund new AI projects. [Link]

AI Will Transform the Global Economy. Let’s Make Sure It Benefits Humanity. (IMF)
The advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) presents a dual-edged sword: it has the potential to significantly enhance productivity and economic growth globally but also risks replacing jobs and exacerbating inequality. According to IMF research, about 40% of global employment could be affected by AI. Within countries, AI could increase income disparities, benefiting those who can utilize AI effectively while disadvantaging others. The IMF has developed an AI Preparedness Index to help countries assess their readiness for AI adoption, highlighting the need for targeted investments in digital infrastructure, education, and regulatory frameworks to ensure AI benefits are broadly shared. [Link]

Foreign Affairs

How U.S. Pressure Helped Save Brazil’s Democracy (Foreign Policy)
Brazil’s federal police recently raided former President Jair Bolsonaro and his allies for allegedly plotting a coup after his 2022 election loss. Amidst these developments, US President Joe Biden’s targeted pressure on key Brazilian officials played a role in upholding Brazil’s democracy, ensuring a peaceful power transition. Foreign policy has had much of the spotlight in the US during this election year, and this was a win for the US in an area that has otherwise faced heavy criticism. [Link]

Megaprojects in the Desert Sap Saudi Arabia’s Cash (WSJ)
Saudi Arabia’s ambitious Vision 2030 projects, including massive property developments, are driving the kingdom to increase its borrowing and consider another sale of Saudi Aramco stock due to dwindling cash reserves in its sovereign wealth fund. These costly initiatives, aimed at diversifying the economy away from oil, are putting financial pressure on the country amid moderate oil prices and high-interest rates. [Link]

Housing

How the housing industry is working to stop energy efficient homes (Washington Post)
North Carolina developer Ron Jackson argues that tightening energy efficiency building codes would make housing unaffordable for many Americans by significantly increasing construction costs. The regulations are claimed to inflate the upfront costs of new homes. However, critics and some green builders contest these claims, pointing out that the proposed energy efficiency measures would increase costs by far less than the industry states and would pay off over the long-term through lower utility bills. [Link]

End of an Era

Death, Lonely Death (Crooked Timber)
Launched in 1977, Voyager 1’s journey through the Solar System is nearing its end as it faces system failures billions of miles from Earth. After surpassing its original three-year mission by decades and making groundbreaking discoveries including the first close-up photos of Jupiter’s moons and entering interstellar space in 2012, the spacecraft began sending back unintelligible data in December 2023, indicating possible software or hardware issues which efforts to resolve haven’t worked. [Link]

Vice Media stops publishing on website and cuts hundreds of jobs (BBC News)
A lot is going on in digital media these days, especially with the rise of AI and more advanced technology. Vice Media filed for bankruptcy in the US in May and is now laying off hundreds. Vice will collaborate with established media firms for content distribution, citing the current model as cost-ineffective. It marks the end of an era in many ways, as Vice had several notable moments including documenting terror groups in Syria and Dennis Rodman’s relationship with North Korea, to name a couple of examples. [Link]

Strawberries

How Driscoll’s Reinvented the Strawberry (The New Yorker)
Driscoll’s, which holds a major stake in the US berry market, is exploring the introduction of unique strawberry varieties to appeal to new consumer segments, such as millennials who are more open to trying unconventional foods. Facing competition from the University of California Davis’s breeding program, Driscoll’s aims to maintain its market dominance by developing proprietary berries and packaging, despite challenges such as labor shortages and diseases. [Link]

Sports

What Happened to Baseball Jerseys? (The Atlantic)
They’re thin, poor fitting, the colors are off, the spacing is wrong, and they look downright fake. Those are some of the concerns with the MLB’s new Nike uniforms for the upcoming season. If you haven’t heard or seen the news and memes online, the new jerseys have become very unpopular, very quickly. Not only do players and fans disapprove, but they’re expensive for fans who would like to purchase them for casual wear. Unfortunately, some of the measures to enhance the performance of the gear, as well as cut costs, have weighed on the quality of the product. [Link]

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Have a great weekend!

As we noted in today’s Morning Lineup, international equites were generally lower yesterday while US markets were shuttered in observance of President’s Day.  The US is continuing the negative tone today with the S&P 500 down roughly 50 bps as of this writing. Of course, seasonality is never the sole reason for ups and downs of the market, but we would note that today’s weakness is basically par for the course coming back from Monday’s holiday.  In the charts below, we show the average daily change and percentage of time with a move higher for the S&P 500 during the week of Presidents’ Day since 1970 when the stock market began to observe the holiday on the third Monday of February.

As shown, historically the S&P 500 has averaged an 18 bps decline the first day back from President’s Day with positive performance less than half the time. Furthermore, assuming the declines hold through the close, today would mark the fifth year in a row that the S&P 500 fell on the Tuesday after President’s Day.  Wednesdays and Thursdays of the week of Presidents’ Day have historically seen even more consistently negative price action albeit the average declines are much smaller at 2 bps and 3 bps, respectively.  Finally, Friday tends to see a rebound with an average gain of 17 bps and positive performance 57% of the time.

Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of the favorite things we read over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.

While you’re here, join Bespoke Premium with a 30-day trial!

On This Day in History:

Millennial and Gen Z wealth has grown by 80% in recent years, according to the NY Fed. They’re still $94 trillion behind boomers (Yahoo Finance)
According to Fed analysis, the stock market’s expansion over the last five years has largely benefited younger generations, with Americans under 40 experiencing an 80% growth in inflation-adjusted wealth between Q1 2019 and Q3 2023, outpacing the wealth increases of older generations. When the pandemic hit, some younger people invested or saved their stimulus checks. Also, younger people invest more in equities than older people given their longer time horizons. That may sound great for the young, but as it is widely known, younger Americans still possess considerably less wealth compared to their older counterparts. [Link]

Passive funds have overtaken active. What’s next for the long-running trend? (MarketWatch)
Buy-and-hold strategies through index funds like the S&P 500 have overtaken active investing in terms of AUM. AUM by active funds has declined from 80% in 2009 to 47% in part because of lower fees of passive funds and underperformance of active funds. This trend in favor of passive funds could make a turn though, as an increase in individual stock buying is being driven by new investors and a rallying market that favors individual stocks. [Link]

He Spent Millions Collecting the Rarest Sneakers and Cars on Earth. Now He’s Over it. (WSJ)
Miles Nadal, a Canadian financier, became a notable figure in the sneaker collecting world, or a “sneakerhead,” five years ago when he purchased 99 rare sneakers for $850,000, and shortly after, a 1972 Nike prototype for $437,500! Nadal later displayed them in a Canadian museum alongside his car collection. Now Nadal is auctioning off the bulk of his sneaker collection, around 750 pairs, including rare Air Jordans and sneakers signed by famous athletes, with the collection estimated to exceed $2 million in value. The proceeds from the sneaker sale are committed to the Dare to Dream Foundation, reflecting Nadal’s shift from collecting to contributing to charitable causes, although he does plan to retain a few sneakers and about twenty cars for personal use. [Link]

AI & Technology

Tech Bros Are Returning Their Vision Pros and Keeping Receipts (Gizmodo)
Following its highly anticipated debut, dissatisfied customers are returning their Apple Vision Pro headsets as the 14-day return period ends, expressing their disappointment on platforms like X. Users have criticized the Vision Pro for its high price, discomfort during use, and a lack of compelling applications. While the device showcased impressive technology, its practical value and current application ecosystem have not met users’ expectations. Hopefully, for Apple, early skepticism will subside as future improvements are made. [Link]

How much electricity does AI consume? (The Verge)
Well, it seems like AI is just about everywhere these days, in some form or another. You can almost always count on it having a section in these Brunch Reads every Sunday. Running AI consumes a lot of energy, but a lack of data makes it difficult to know just how much. It’s estimated that ChatGPT-3 uses enough energy to supply 130 US homes annually. AI systems may become more energy-efficient, but trends toward larger models also suggest increasing energy demands. At any rate, it’s tough to know how much energy is needed to run AI, but it’s likely a bigger number than we can estimate right now. [Link]

Crime

How I Got Scammed Out of $50,000 (The Cut)
In a sophisticated scam, a woman was coerced into handing over $50,000 from her savings under the guise of protecting her identity and family from legal and financial jeopardy. The scammers, who convincingly posed as representatives from Amazon, the FTC, and the CIA, manipulated her with detailed personal information and threats of surveillance and legal action. Schemes as elaborate as this highlight how vulnerable anybody is, regardless of age or education. Reading a story like this makes some scam artists’ expertise in altering victims’ reality a little more real for all of us. [Link]

Environment

‘Holy grail of shark science’ caught by drone off California coast (SFGATE)
A drone captured a small, possibly newborn great white shark off the coast of Carpinteria, near Santa Barbara. The drone seems to have gotten footage of the shark shedding its embryonic layer, a phenomenon potentially never before seen on camera. Much is unknown about great whites as they travel at lengths and depths, but drone capabilities may prove to be of great use in finding out more about their behavior, especially near populated coastlines. [Link]

A New Carbon Removal Startup Is Powered by Sunlight and Seawater (Bloomberg)
Banyu Carbon, a Seattle startup, is developing a method to extract carbon dioxide from the atmosphere using sunlight and seawater. This approach, based on a synthetic molecule that becomes acidic when exposed to light, aims to convert CO2 in seawater into a gas for safe storage, with potential for large-scale application including a commercial project to remove 360 metric tons of CO2 by 2026. The technology represents an energy-efficient solution to global warming, with important implications for carbon removal efforts and marine ecosystems. [Link]

Baby Bust

How China Miscalculated Its Way to a Baby Bust (WSJ)
Birth rates are falling faster than expected in China, which is a real cause for concern stemming from the one-child policy that was originally designed to control population growth. What the model didn’t account for was the aging population and reduced fertility rates of the nation today. Efforts to reverse the trend, including shifting to a two-child policy and promoting a “birth-friendly culture,” have yet to yield the desired increase in birth rates. Fertility rates of around one birth per woman are still far from the replacement rate of 2.1. [Link]

NIL

Caitlin Clark Has Scored 3,569 Points—And Taken $0 From Boosters (WSJ)
Women’s college basketball phenom Caitlin Clark now holds the all-time NCAA points record, which most knew was just a matter of time. As a high-profile college athlete in today’s world where players can make money on their name, image, and likeness (NIL), you’d assume that Clark is doing quite well. Except for that, she hasn’t taken any money from Iowa’s main NIL collective. It’s not that she can’t be paid, rather Clark prefers to focus on her substantial direct sponsorships with major brands. As a figure who has exponentially boosted the image of not only her team but women’s basketball as a whole, eyes are on Clark’s future decision to stay at Iowa for another year or enter the WBNA draft. [Link]

Buy Now, Pay Later

How and Why Do Consumers Use “Buy Now, Pay Later”? (Liberty Street Economics)
Buy now, pay later (BNPL) service usage differs depending on financial stability, primarily. Financially fragile households are more likely to use BNPL for frequent, small purchases due to limited access to other forms of credit. In contrast, financially stable households engage with BNPL services less often, primarily to avoid interest on larger purchases. Both groups have high rates of repeat usage, but the service is more critical for the financially fragile as it allows them to make purchases that might be unaffordable. [Link]

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Have a great weekend!

Below is an updated look at our popular table that highlights the performance of various asset classes using key ETFs (or ETPs) traded on US exchanges.  For each asset class, we show its performance since COVID hit on 2/19/20, since the current bull market began on 10/12/22, and since the low last quarter on 10/27/23.

Since October 27th (less than four months ago), the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is now up 22.8%.  That’s a big move.  The Tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is up even more at 25.95%, and interestingly, the small-cap Russell 2,000 (IWM) is up nearly the same amount at 25.58%.

At the sector level, we’ve seen Technology (XLK) and Financials (XLF) gain the most since 10/27/23, while Energy (XLE) is up the least at just over 2.7%.

Outside the US, we’ve seen China (ASHR) actually fall 2.3% since 10/27, while Israel (EIS) is up 38%.  Natural gas (UNG) is by far the worst performer in our table with a drop of 47%.

Looking at fixed income ETFs, the 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) is up 11.3% since 10/27/23, but it’s still down 30.37% on a total return basis since COVID hit in February 2020.

Below is a quick six-month chart of SPY so you can see the sharp move higher seen since 10/27:

Within the large-cap Russell 1,000, we’ve seen 12 stocks gain more than $100 billion in market cap since 10/27/23, including a $794 billion gain for NVIDIA (NVDA).

In terms of percentage gainers, below are the 20 best performing Russell 1,000 stocks since 10/27/23.  Coinbase (COIN), Affirm (AFRM), and Coherent (COHR) are the three stocks up more than 100%, while Lyft (LYFT), SentinelOne (S), Karuna (KRTX), Uber (UBER), and Crowdstrike (CRWD) are all up more than 90%.

Not everything is up, though.  Below are the 20 worst performing Russell 1,000 names since 10/27/23.  SSR Mining (SSRM) has been the worst with a decline of 65.2%, followed by agilon health (AGL) with a drop of 60.2%.  New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) is down 46.6%, while AMC Entertainment (AMC) is down a hair less at 46.34%.

The huge rally we’ve seen in some areas of the market has left a large number of stocks trading above their consensus analyst price target.  As of today, nearly 16% of Russell 1,000 stocks were trading above their consensus analyst price target, and below are the ones the farthest above.

Coinbase (COIN) has been the best performing stock in the Russell 1,000 since 10/27, and it’s also now the farthest above where analysts think it should be trading.  GameStop (GME) ranks second at 36.76% above its average analyst price target.

One last table…

Below is a list of stocks that have done well since 10/27 (up 20%+) but remain well below (20%+) their consensus analyst price target.  These are names that have been rallying but analysts think there’s more gas in the tank.